1. Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to Climate Change Impacts 27-28 November 2014, Nairobi Kenya THE CURRENT STATUS OF CLIMATE SYSTEM WITH REFERENCE TO ENSO FACTOR DURING DEC 2014 RAINFALL IN KENYA JN MUTEMI-University of Nairobi & ICPAC-Kenya

2. OUTLINE  CLIMATE EVOLUTION FACTORS DURING 2014  FLOODS IN E.AFRICA/ KENYA ARE NOT PURELY EL NINO DRIVEN!  WHAT SHOULD INFORM ADAPTION TO FLOODING…ATTRIBUTION IS BY MOST CRUCIAL DRIVERS WITH CONSISTENT TEMPORAL-SPACE SCALE FOR EFFECTIVE INFORMING OF ADAPTATION. Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts

3. Apparent warming during June/ July 2014 in EQ. Pacific did not mature, did grow towards EL Nino 2014 Evolution in Indian Ocean, including the IOD mode also weakened during July to present, with warmer than average SST patterns shifting with Solar heating towards SW Sector of Indian Ocean.

4. Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts These are typical ENSO-El Nino comparisons from CDC. There is hardly any parallel for the current conditions!

5. WHILE ENSO SIGNAL DECAYS, IOD IS SMALL POSTIVE VALUE… CAN NOT ENHANCE DEC2014 RAINFALL IN KENYA Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts Both ENSO and IOD are un- likely to improve during the rest of 2014 to give torrentially heavy rainfall during the rest of 2014 in both Kenya.

6. Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts WHAY IS A TYPICAL RAINBFALL EVOLUTION DURING EL NINO vs Current scenario… Probably El Nino impact concern is the cumulative heavy rainfall. THIS WILL NOT OCCUR DURING 2014 Current conditions are near normal conditions. Even if some places receive above normal rainfall during the remaining part of 2014, it is not an El Nino signal, but still the current indicators are favourable for near average season, not drought if drought means wide spread failure of rainfall in the country.

7. Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts EL NINO alone does not always indicate flooding conditions in Kenya. Certainly, El Nino like conditions during 2014, wherever it came was informed! When signal is strong and concurrent with patterns in INDIAN & ATL Oceans which have implications on moist in-flow into Kenya/ E. Africa, the ENSO coupled with these regional scale drivers become crucial indicators and can be used to guide decisions on time scales up to a few months ahead. WAY FWD: Will EL Nino come: YES with 100 probability! Coming on 27 NOV 2014: Not arrived, did not even take off! :Early symptoms can therefore reverse, :Simplistic kind of assumptions can give disastrous results. In GHA…RCOFs Let Climate Science lead at least the cause and attribution: “Monitoring, diagnosis and modeling works, but should not be assumed...” Climate science will provide guidance in due course, e.g. GHACOF39 in February 2015!! CONCLUSIONS & WAY FORWARD

8. Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to El Nino Impacts