1. Global Variations of Precipitation, Floods and Landslides Robert Adler Guojun Gu Huan Wu University of Maryland Collaborators: Dalia Kirschbaum (Goddard), Martina Ricko (SGT) The overall objective of this proposal is to better understand climate-scale variations on inter-annual to trend time scales and their relations to global and regional variations of mean and heavy precipitation and the occurrence and intensity of floods and landslides.

2. Temporary Slowdown Global Surface TemperatureGlobal Surface Temperature-Residual Global Surface Precipitation-ResidualGlobal Surface Precipitation Variations in Global Surface Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Inter-decadal Shifts and ENSO and Volcano Effects Temporary Slowdown (formerly known as “hiatus”) in Global Warming—still a possibility for integration activity??

3. 3 Trends in Global Precipitation During Satellite Era (1979-2013) Estimated Trends related to Global Warming mm/d/decade Although the trend in global total precipitation is near zero (in GPCP analysis), the pattern of observed regional trends (left panel) is related to Global Warming (GW) plus inter-decadal signals such as PDO and AMO (ENSO impact is small). Bottom left panel shows trend pattern after PDO effect is removed, a better estimate of of GW impact on precipitation regional trends and also a pattern closer to that predicted by CMIP climate models (bottom right), but with smaller magnitudes—by factor of 2-3. Gu, Adler and Huffman (2015) Climate Dynamics Observed Trends Trends from CMIP ensemble

4. Trends in Precipitation (1900-2010) due to Global Warming [with aerosol effect taken out] Gauges over land; “reconst -ruction” over water Climate model forced by observed SST, etc. Climate model forced by CO 2 Composite, i.e., mean of the three other fields Gu and Adler (2015) J. Clim. “RECONS” is from Tom Smith (NESDIS)

5. Ricko, Adler and Huffman, 2016 J. Climate (under review) Climatology and Interannual Variability of Quasi-Global Intense Precipitation Using Satellite Observations mm/d Climatology and Variations of Intense Rainfall Indices of Intense Daily Precipitation to link to Flood and Landslide Occurrence. In this case R 25, rainfall in month occurring after first 25 mm in a day.

6. Global Real-time Flood Calculations Using Satellite Rainfall and Hydrological Model Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS) http://flood.umd.edu/ TMPA TRMM calibrating rainfall from other satellites as forerunner to GPM TRMM/GPM rainfall into land surface and routing models for water depth and stream flow calculations compared to flood thresholds Indus River basin Aug. 20 2013 Global Flood Detection (12 km) Time Histories at a Point Experimental Inundation Mapping at 1 km resolution Streamflow Flood Threshold 6

7. Malaysia Flooding (December 2014) 7-day rain ending 12Z 27 December 7 December Global Flood Monitoring System—Adler/Wu (U. of Maryland) flood.umd.edu Heavy rains (over 1100mm) over the last seven days (and more before that), have produced widespread flooding in Malaysia and southern Thailand. Max: > 1100 mm Forecast 27 December 12Z Streamflow above Flood Threshold (m 3 /s) X Streamflow Flood Threshold Streamflow (m 3 /s) 19 Dec. 27 Dec. 31 Dec.

8. Use of Satellite (and other) Precipitation to Estimate Flood Climatology and Variations

9. Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) ICDR for February 2016 The GPCP Interim CDR for February 2016 shows a very strong, continuing El Nino precipitation maximum and positive anomaly in the central Pacific with a strong extension southeastward into the central South Pacific. The typical negative anomaly over the Maritime Continent is still evident, extends across northern Australia, but is overall weaker, with some small areas of positive anomalies over Borneo and New Guinea (see following slide). South America has a rainfall deficit in the eastern Amazon, but areas of above rainfall to the south from southeast Brazil to Argentina, and over Peru/Bolivia, where floods have been noted. Across the sub-tropical Pacific negative anomalies dominate, north of the rainfall maximum, across Hawaii and into the U.S. west coast. This rainfall deficit over the southwest U.S. is not typical of El Nino patterns and is a shift from January. The South Indian Ocean still has a general positive anomaly, generally true for El Ninos, with a slight extension into southeast Africa (e.g., northern Madagascar). Southern Africa is mainly in negative territory. http://eagle1.umd.edu/GPCP_ICDR/http://eagle1.umd.edu/GPCP_ICDR/ Adler/Wang/Gu/Sapiano U. of Maryland

10. Precipitation Anomaly Pattern for February2016 vs. Pattern for “Mean” El Nino

11. Global Mean Annual Water Cycle From Rodell et al., 2015 J. Clim. Global mean water fluxes (1,000 km 3 /yr) at the start of the 21 st century GPCP Land ValueGPCP Ocean Value Best guess estimates from observations and data integrating models When water balance is enforced, uncertainty decreases [Adjusted upward by ~ 5%] [Adjusted upward by ~ 1 %]

12. Variations of ENSO, PDO and AMO Indices During Satellite Era Nino 3.4 ENSO PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation AMO Atlantic Multi- decadal Oscillation Climate Shift