1. Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall of 2014 Guidance from what we understand about the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) Given the strong link between ISMR and ENSO and the prediction of the likelihood of an EL Nino event this summer

3. Déjà vu: can learn lessons from understanding the monsoon of 2012 and predictions made by the models Focus on CFS2 predictions because its sister/cousin is the monsoon mission model Mid-May 2012 Mid-March 2014

4. CFS2 forecasts of Nino 3.4 SST 2012 2014 Initial Conditions:1-10 April 2012; 1-10 April 2014

6. Unfavourable El Nino signal Prediction for JJA 2012 rainfall anomalies by CFS2 Initial Con. 1-10April Correlation of Nino3.4 SST with OLR (JJA) Note: El Nino assoc. with suppres sion of convec- tion over the entire region

7. Initial Con. 1-10April Correlation between all-India rainfall and OLR (JJA) Favourable pattern over the eq. Indian Ocean Unfavourable ENSO Prediction for JJA 2012 rainfall anomalies by CFS2

8. Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) EQUINOO is the oscillation between the positive phase with suppression of convection over EEIO and enhancement over WEIO, and negative phase with enhancement over EEIO and suppression of convection over WEIO. WEIO EEIO Negative phase Positive phase

9. The index generally used for EQUINOO is EQWIN based on the anomaly of the zonal wind over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. The extremes of ISMR are well separated in the EQWIN –ENSO plane, suggesting the importance of the two modes ENSO and EQUINOO in interannual variation of ISMR. August 94 EQWIN: +2.03 EQUINOLR:+2.2

10. Since the major signature of EQUINOO is the OLR/rainfall patterns, and since OLR/satellite derived rainfall data are now available for well over 30 years (1979–2011) Francis and Gadgil (2013)* proposed switching over to indices based on OLR/rainfall for assessing the phase and strength of EQUINOO. The index based on OLR, viz., EQUINOLR is defined as the difference between the OLR anomaly over EEIO and that over WEIO normalized by the standard deviation. *Francis P A and Sulochana Gadgil, 2013 “A note on new indices for the equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation” J. Earth Syst. Sci. 122, No. 4, August 2013, pp. 1005–1011

11. Hence we expect EQUINOO to play an important role in the interannual variation of the monsoon along with ENSO.

12. Corr. between Nino3.4 SST and OLR-JJA OLR anomaly JJA 2012 Corr. between EQUINOLR and OLR- JJA

13. OLR anomaly JJA 2012 Favourable unfavourable Note that CFS2 predicted the correct phase of EQUINOO

15. Indian Ocean Dipole IOD forecast: Sea surface temperature in the northern Indian Ocean will be colder-than- normal up to fall. A weak negative IOD will evolve in early summer and then peak in fall. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature will persist west of Australia in following seasons. –wrong forecast! FRCGC, Japan: April, 2012

16. JJA2012 JJA2014

19. Although CFS2 predicted positive phase of EQUINOO, it predicted a large negative anomaly of rainfall over the Indian region (relative to the observed). It appears that the link to EQUINOO is not captured by the CFS2. Are models able to simulate/predict (i) the phase of EQUINOO and (ii) its link with ISMR? This was addressed by analysis of retrospective forecasts of the ENSMBLE project and of CFS1, CFS2 from the NCEP website by Nanjundiah Ravi S., P. A. Francis, Mohit Ved and Sulochana Gadgil, 2013,“ Predicting the extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with coupled ocean–atmosphere models” Curr. Sc.vol. 104 p 1380

20. Huge false alarm Note the coherence of the errors across the board ENSEMBLES models

21. CFS1 and CFS2

22. IITM -T 382

24. 2012 -7% 2013 +6% EQUINOO: +ve -ve -ve EQUINOO-ve -ve Need improvement in the prediction of the phase of EQUINOO as well as its link with ISMR IITM T382 model predictions for JJAS 2012,2013

25. 97 87 82 12 Evolution of Nino3.4 in El Nino years What can we say about the monsoon of 2014? (i) depends on the strength of the EL Nino (ii) phase of EQUINOO

27. 82 97 87 94 12 Role of EQUINOO Clearly a prediction for the phase and intensity of EQUINOO is also required

34. Some hope that it would not be too bad from the Australians

35. Thank you