1. CONFLICT AND THE VULNERABILITY OF SOUTHERN AFRICA TO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE JENNY CLOVER AFRICAN SECURITY ANALYSIS PROGRAMME, INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES

2. CONFLICT “Africa” synonymous with conflict - increasingly violent and protracted Traditional definitions of conflict …. “as a situation in which armed force is used to resolve issues of government or territory, at least one of the parties is the government of a country and there are at least 25 battle-related deaths”. Intrastate Civilian deaths

3. SOUTHERN AFRICAN CONFLICTS National conflicts in the last two decades: Long-term/severe: Angola, Mozambique Smaller scale, more localised: Zimbabwe, Namibia, SA The DRC is not so much a national conflict as a single zone of conflict or a series of interlocking national conflicts that has drawn in & affected the region.

4. NON - TRADITIONAL THREATS TO SECURITY Food insecurity; HIV/AIDS; & reduced capacity to govern Complex emergencies - combination of factors Angola, Zimbabwe Cause and effect - conflict, famine, disease, poverty

5. DYNAMIC NATURE OF VULNERABILITY Vulnerability is generated; it cannot be de- contextualised All stages of conflict affect human security Cyclical connection between conflict, natural resources and the environment Environmental degradation and competition for resources Unequal allocation of resources

6. ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY Lack of development Lack of adequate mitigation

7. CONFLICT AS A STRESSOR Direct effects of conflict: Economic Displacement of civilians Food insecurity Health consequences Destruction of resources Governance and mitigation

8. FOOD INSECURITY Agriculture devastated Crime Markets Livelihoods Donor support - access; apathy

9. HEALTH CONSEQUENCES Health services decline Disease increases Social indicators drop Conflict as a vector of HIV/AIDS

10. DESTRUCTION OF NATURAL RESOURCES Natural resources ravaged to finance conflicts Refugees and IDPs Land conflicts, marginal lands Environmental degradation in turn creates scarcity - greater poverty - conflict

11. CONFLICT, GOVERNANCE & MITIGATION Structural - power relations & vulnerability Conflicts weaken governance Household resilience weakened Relief orientation creates dependencies

12. ADAPTION AND MITIGATION EFFORTS Promotion of human security Integration of conflict early warning and food security early warning Comprehensive disaster management Improve vulnerability mapping, early warning and preparedness measures Increase transparency over the management and allocation of natural resources Policy attempts to break the vicious path to conflict need to address both poverty and environmental issues