1. The transition to a low carbon shipping system: pathways and consequences Shipping in changing climates: provisioning the future 18 th June 2014 Sarah Mander, Conor Walsh and Alice Bows-Larkin National Geographic Greenprophet

2. Overview  Innovation and socio-technical systems  Past shipping transitions  2 case studies – slow steaming and renewable propulsion  Summary

3. Shipping as a socio-technical system  A socio-technical system is a cluster of aligned elements (Geels, 2002, 2011; Kemp et al, 1998)

4. Innovation (the MLP) Landscape – external conditions

5. Innovation Landscape – external conditions GDP Population Natural resources Fuel price

6. Innovation Landscape – external conditions Regime – existing ways of doing

7. Innovation Landscape – external conditions Regime – existing ways of doing Classification IMO Containers Globalisation Integrated supply chains Long lived technology

8. Innovation Landscape – external conditions Regime – existing ways of doing Niche – protected space for radical innovation

9. Innovation Landscape – external conditions Regime – existing ways of doing Niche – protected space for radical innovation

10. Past shipping transition – sail to steam (Geels, 2002)  Sail (18 th Century) » Wind propulsion » No fixed scheduling, little co-ordination  First experiments in steam (1807 onwards) » Inland waterways – passengers and mail » Landscape changes – trade liberalisation » Mail subsidies support technological innovation e.g. iron hulls, screw propulsion » Services with fixed scheduling

11. Past shipping transition – sail to steam (Geels, 2002)  Steamships for passenger transport (1845 onwards) » Landscape changes – emigration, scarcity of timber » Professional shipping companies » Technical innovation – compound engines increase coal efficiency » Steamships competing with sailing ships  A new socio-technical regime (1900) » A gradual shift to steam » Technical improvements » Defensive strategies from sailing ships » Reconfiguration of the regime e.g. ports, canals, locks

12. Changing landscape for shipping  Landscape pressures on shipping (mid to late 2000’s) » High fuel prices » Global recession and overcapacity » Environmental pressures important for some How has the shipping regime reacted?

13. The emergence of slow steaming  Slow steaming emerged initially on Europe/Asia routes but has become more widespread » Reduction in fuel consumption » Makes use of ships that would otherwise be idle Source: Wartsila, 2010

14. The emergence of slow steaming  Slow steaming throws up challenges » Possible impact of slow steaming on ships e.g. Engines Hull fouling » Impacts on supply chains e.g. Longer delivery times More/less reliable?  Differential adoption across the industry  Practice becoming embedded in some companies » Cultural and management shifts » Technological change When economic conditions improve, will speeds remain slow?

15. A new age of sail?  Wind propulsion has the potential to reduce fuel consumption » A number of different technologies  Development of wind technology has been stop/start How can a promising technology be supported? Source: B9 Shipping

16. A new age of sail?  Securing finance, low freight rates  Conservative industry De-risking the technology  A protected niche is key for wind propulsion » Technology need proving at commercial scale » Customers for whom low carbon would be commercially attractive  Knowledge sharing and transparency  Other developments support wind propulsion » Regime – slow steaming » Landscape – information technology developments

17. Summary  The MLP offers a useful way to explore a transition to a more sustainable shipping system  Landscape pressures – economic downturn and fuel prices are supporting changes to the shipping regime  Policy interventions may be required such that slow steaming becomes embedded in the regime  Wind technology is a promising niche technology, it requires a protected space to mature and develop

18. Thank you s.mander@manchester.ac.uk