1. CHAPTER 2 © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard A Tour of the Book Prepared by: Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano

2. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard2 of 27 Aggregate Output National income and product accounts are an accounting system used to measure of aggregate economic activity. The measure of aggregate output in the national income accounts is gross domestic product, or GDP. 2-1

3. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard3 of 27 SNA (System of National Account) 联合国 SNA 体系的五大统计表。

4. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard4 of 27 GDP: Production and Income There are three ways of defining GDP: 1.GDP is the value of the final goods and services produced in the economy during a given period.  A final good is a good that is destined for final consumption.  An intermediate good is a good used in the production of another good.

5. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard5 of 27 GDP: Production and Income There are three ways of defining GDP: 2.GDP is the sum of value added in the economy during a given period.  Value added equals the value of a firm’s production minus the value of the intermediate goods it uses in production.

6. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard6 of 27 GDP: Production and Income There are three ways of defining GDP: 3.GDP is the sum of the incomes in the economy during a given period. Table 2-1 The Composition of GDP by Type of Income, 1960 and 2003 1960 2003 Labor income66%64% Capital income26%28% Indirect taxes8%

7. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard7 of 27 Nominal and Real GDP Nominal GDP is the sum of the quantities of final goods produced times their current price. Nominal GDP increases over time because:  The production of most goods increases over time.  The prices of most goods also increase over time. Real GDP is constructed as the sum of the quantities of final goods times constant (rather than current) prices.

8. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard8 of 27 Nominal and Real GDP  To construct real GDP, multiply the number of cars in each year by a common price. Suppose we use the price of the car in 2000 as the common price. This approach gives us, in effect, real GDP in 2000 dollars. Year Quantity of Cars Price of cars Nominal GDP Real GDP (in 2000 dollars) 199910$20,000$200,000$240,000 200012$24,000$288,000 200113$26,000$338,000$312,000

9. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard9 of 27 Nominal and Real GDP  Nominal GDP is also called dollar GDP or GDP in current dollars.  Real GDP is also called GDP in terms of goods, GDP in constant dollars, GDP adjusted for inflation, or GDP in 2000 dollars.  GDP will refer to real GDP, and Y t will denote real GDP in year t.  Nominal GDP will be denoted by a dollar sign in front of it: $Y t. Real GDP, Technological Progress, and the Price of Computers Hedonic pricing puts an implicit price on each of a good’s characteristics.

10. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard10 of 27 Nominal and Real GDP From 1960 to 2003, nominal GDP increased by a factor of 21. Real GDP increased by a factor of 4. Nominal and Real GDP U.S. GDP Since 1960 Figure 1 - 2

11. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard11 of 27 Nominal and Real GDP Real GDP per capita is the ratio of real GDP to the population of the country. GDP growth equals:  Periods of positive GDP growth are called expansions.  Periods of negative GDP growth are called recessions.

12. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard12 of 27 Nominal and Real GDP Figure 2-2 Growth Rate of U.S. GDP Since 1960 Since 1960, the U.S. economy has gone through a series of expansions interrupted by short recessions.

13. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard13 of 27 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables GDP is obviously the most important macroeconomic variable. But two other variables tell us about other important aspects of how an economic is performing:  Unemployment  Inflation 2-2

14. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard14 of 27 The Unemployment Rate labor force = employment + unemployment L = N + U Unemployment rate:

15. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard15 of 27 失业率的实质 衡量劳动力市场供需缺口的指标 中国有关失业的定义及其缺陷 – 城镇登记失业率 城镇登记失业率 – 城镇调查失业率 学者的努力：推测农村剩余劳动力、真实城 镇失业率 计划经济时期的失业？

16. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard16 of 27 城镇登记失业率 指有非农业户口，在一定的劳动年龄内（ 16 岁以 上及男 50 岁以下、女 45 岁以下），有劳动能力， 无业而要求就业，并在当地就业服务机构进行 求职登记的人员。 出处 : 《中国统计年鉴》 缺陷 : 没有包含以下人员 ①农民工 ② 50 岁以上男、 45 岁以上女 ③未登记的失业人员 ④下岗人员。

17. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard17 of 27 城镇调查失业率 指城镇常住人口中一定年龄以上，有劳动能力，在调查 期间无工作，当前有就业可能并以某种方式寻找工作 的人员。在城镇劳动力调查中对城镇 16 岁及以上，具 有劳动能力并同时符合以下各项条件的人员列为失业 人员： (1) 在调查周内未从事为取得劳动报酬或经营利润的劳动， 也没有处于就业定义中的暂时未工作状态； (2) 在某一特定期间内采取了某种方式寻找工作； (3) 当前如有工作机会可以在一个特定期间内应聘就业或 从事自营职业。 出处 : 《中国劳动统计年鉴》。 缺陷 : 没有包含下岗人员。

18. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard18 of 27 中国有关失业的统计 中国统计年鉴、劳动统计年鉴：城镇登 记失业率 劳动统计年鉴：城镇调查失业率 2000 年人口普查 学者的推测：农村剩余劳动力、真实城 镇失业率

19. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard19 of 27 The Unemployment Rate Since 1960, the U.S. unemployment rate has fluctuated between 3 and 10%, going down during expansions, and going up during recessions. U.S. Unemployment Rate Since 1960. Figure 2-3

20. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard20 of 27 中国城镇的失业状况（万人、％） 登记 失业者 登记 失业率 调查 失业率 真实 失业者① 真实失业 率① 真实失 业者② 真实失 业率② 城镇农村 1991352.22.3 1992363.92.3 1993420.12.6540~6003.3~3.7 1994476.42.8620~6923.6~4.1 1995519.62.94.3800~9134.4~5.0 1996552.83.04.0970~11485.1~6.0 1997570.03.14.96.11.51310~15106.8~7.82207.610.1 1998571.03.15.87.81.3 约 1800 8.0~8.42322.111.2 1999575.03.1 出处 : (1) 登记失业者及登记失业率的数据见《中国统计年鉴》或《中国劳动统计年鉴》。 (2) 调查失业率的数据见《中国劳动统计年鉴 (1998 、 1999) 》或胡安钢 (1997) 。 (3) 真实失业者①及真实失业率①的数据见胡安钢 (1997) 。 (4) 真实失业者②及真实失业率②的数据为笔者依据上述资料做的推测 。

21. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard21 of 27 The Unemployment Rate The Current Population Survey (CPS) is used to compute the unemployment rate. Only those looking for work are counted as unemployed. Those not working and not looking for work are not in the labor force. People without jobs who give up looking for work are known as discouraged workers. Participation rate

22. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard22 of 27 美国白人与黑人的劳动力市场数据： 2008 年 6 月 成年人 (20 岁及以上 ) 失业率劳动力参工率 白人，男性 4.5%76.1% 白人，女性 4.260.4 黑人，男性 9.371.5 黑人，女性 7.464.3

23. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard23 of 27 白人与黑人的劳动力市场数据： 2008 年 6 月 青少年 (16-19 岁 ) 失业率劳动力参工率 白人 16.643.9 黑人 29.627.9

24. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard24 of 27 其他群体的劳动力市场数据： 2008 年 6 月 所有年龄 失业率劳动力参工率 亚洲 4.567.4 西班牙 7.769.0

25. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard25 of 27 不同受教育程度的劳动力市场数据： 2008 年 6 月 成年人 (25 岁及以上 ) 失业率劳动力参工率 未上高中 8.7%45.9% 高中文凭 5.162.8 学士学位 4.271.9 高于学士学位 2.378.1

26. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard26 of 27 男性与女性的劳动力参工率 1950-2007 年 男性 女性

27. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard27 of 27 Why Do Economists Care About Unemployment? Economists care about unemployment for two reasons:  Because of its direct effects on the welfare of the unemployed.  Because it signals that the economy may not be using some of its resources efficiently. Did Spain Really Have a 24% Unemployment Rate in 1994? The underground economy is not measured in official statistics.

28. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard28 of 27 The Inflation Rate Inflation is a sustained rise in the general level of prices—the price level. The inflation rate is the rate at which the price level increases. (Conversely, deflation is a sustained decline in the price level. It corresponds to a negative inflation rate). Deflation is rare, but it does happen. Japan has experienced deflation since the late 1990s.

29. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard29 of 27 The GDP Deflator The GDP deflator is what is called an index number—set equal to 100 in the base year. The rate of change in the GDP deflator equals the rate of inflation: Nominal GDP is equal to the GDP deflator times real GDP: The GDP deflator in year t, P t, is defined as the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP in year t:

30. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard30 of 27 The Consumer Price Index The GDP deflator measures the average price of output, while the consumer price index, or CPI, measures the average price of consumption, or equivalently, the cost of living. The CPI gives the cost in dollars of a specific list of goods and services over time, which attempts to represent the consumption basket of a typical urban consumer.

31. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard31 of 27 The Consumer Price Index CPI 的设计  中国 CPI 的八大类商品和服务：食品权重是 33 ． 6 ％、烟 酒及饮品是 14 ． 4 ％、衣着是 9 ％、家庭设备用品及其维 修服务是 6 ． 2 ％、交通和通讯是 9 ． 3 ％、娱乐教育文化 用品及服务是 4 ． 5 ％、居住是 13 ． 6 ％、其他 9.4 ％ 。  美国 CPI 是指包括 200 多种各式各样的商品和服务价格的 平均变化值。这些商品与服务又分为 8 个主要类别及不同 的权重。如住宅（ 42 ． 1 ％）、食品和饮料（ 15 ． 4 ％）、 交通运输（ 16 ． 9 ％）、医疗（ 6 ． 1 ％）、服装（ 4 ． 0 ％）、娱乐（ 5 ． 8 ％）、教育和交流（ 5 ． 9 ％）、其他 商品和服务（ 3 ． 8 ％）。

32. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard32 of 27

33. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard33 of 27 中国 7 月份通胀率创 10 年新高

34. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard34 of 27

35. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard35 of 27 The Consumer Price Index The set of goods produced in the economy is not the same as the set of goods purchased by consumers for two reasons:  Some of the goods are sold to firms, the government, or to foreigners.  Some of the goods are not produced domestically but are imported from abroad.

36. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard36 of 27 The Consumer Price Index Inflation Rate, Using the CPI and the GDP Deflator since 1960 Figure 2-4 The inflation rates, computed using either the CPI or the GDP deflator, are largely similar.

37. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard37 of 27 The Consumer Price Index Figure 2-4 yields two conclusions:  The CPI and the GDP deflator move together most of the time. In most years, the two inflation rates differ by less than 1%.  There are clear exceptions, however. In both 1974 and in the late 1970s, the increase in the CPI was significantly larger than the increase in the GDP deflator.

38. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard38 of 27

39. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard39 of 27 Why Do Economists Care About Inflation? Economists care about inflation for two reasons:  During periods of inflation, not all prices and wages rise proportionately, inflation affects income distribution.  Inflation leads to other distortions.

40. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard40 of 27 The Short Run, the Medium Run, the Long Run Output is determined by:  demand in the short run, say, a few years,  the level of technology, the capital stock, and the labor force in the medium run, say, a decade or so,  factors such as education, research, saving, and the quality of government in the long run, say, a half century or more. 2-3

41. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard41 of 27 趋势与波动 增长趋势 波动：对趋势 的偏离 Ln(GDP)

42. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard42 of 27 A Tour of the Book Figure 2-5 The Organization of the Book 2-4

43. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard43 of 27 A Tour of the Book The book is organized into three parts:  A core which has three parts – the short run, the medium run, and the long run.  Three extensions which explore the role of expectations, closed economies, and expansion and recessions.  A deeper look at the role of microeconomic policy.

44. Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard44 of 27 Key Terms  national income and product accounts, national income and product accounts,  aggregate output  gross domestic product, or GDP  final good  intermediate good  value added  nominal GDP  real GDP  real GDP in chained (2000) dollars  dollar GDP, GDP in current dollars  GDP in terms of goods, GDP in constant dollars, GDP adjusted for inflation, GDP in 2000 dollars  GDP growth, expansions, recessions  labor force  Hedonic pricing  Employment  unemployment  Current Population Survey (CPS)  unemployment rate  not in the labor force  discouraged workers  participation rate  Underground economy  Price level  inflation  inflation rate  deflation  GDP deflator  index number  consumer price index (CPI)  cost of living  Base year  short run, medium run, and long run short run, medium run, and long run