1. World Development Report 2011 conflict, security and development

2. Overview 1.Trends, causes, and consequences 2.Breaking cycles of conflict 3.Directions for change

3. mainstream literature: focus on civil war trends, causes, and consequences

4. conflict is a key constraint to development Excludes China, India and Russia trends, causes, and consequences

5. repeated cycles of violence trends, causes, and consequences

6. cross-border violence

7. today’s challenges 7 trends, causes, and consequences

8. interlinked forms of violence organized crime and trafficking gang-based violence local conflict political conflict trends, causes, and consequences

9. correlates of violence risk INTERNALEXTERNAL STRESSES Abusive leadership Corruption Youth unemployment Inequality Rapid urban growth Legacy of violence and human rights abuses External interference Economic/natural shocks Organized crime Trafficking Corruption by external actors Policy pressures CAPABILITIES Responsible leadership Shared values and trust Technical capacity/accountability Equitable growth and jobs Revenue/expenditure capacity Connectivity of isolated regions Appropriate/adequate aid Security assistance Trade opportunities Positive diplomatic influence Technical assistance Regional cooperation breaking cycles of conflict

10. three elements of successful prevention and recovery? Improved safety and security Confidence in economic prospects Balanced power relations. inclusion and social justice Local National Regional Global

11. Institutions are Organic Reify Social Contract – Complexity of social contract – Violence/security to Complex Public Goods Fundamental Exchange: – Provision for Participation (public goods) (compliance)

12. FCS situations & Problem Solutions FCS = break in public authority – Legitimacy – Effectiveness Problem Solutions in Current Practice – Transplanted Best Practice – Premature Load-bearing

13. Scenarios: GDP per capita as an analogy

14. Hypothetical evolutions of “bureaucratic quality” (ICRG rating) for the average of fragile states BAU: Actual Trend Average progress of all countries Progress of fastest 20 Fastest ever

15. Scenarios for three dimensions of “state capability” Indicator level Thresh o l d Years to threshold at pace of: ICRG indicator Current actual, fragile situations Recent average, fragile situations Average, all countriesFastest 20 Fastest over the threshold Bureaucratic Quality1.02.5Infinity188.619.912.0 Corruption1.83.5Infinity 27.414.3 Military in Politics1.94.0Infinity142.016.610.3

16. Scenarios using CPIA rankings of key indicators related to conflict Indicator level Thresh o l d Years to threshold at pace of: ICRG indicator Current actual, fragile situations Recent average, fragile situations Average, all countrie sFastest 20 Fastest to thresh old Quality of Public Administration2.64.0Infinity140.316.07.0 Economic Management3.14.0116.219.04.54.2 Gender2.94.0Infinity32.37.55.7 Equity in Public Resources2.84.0180.039.98.65.4

17. reform, capability and risk Degree of reform/capabilities Risk of violence Dilemmas of timing and speed: 1) Economic restructuring 2) Administrative restructuring 3) Justice reform/TJ 4) Political/electoral reform 5) Empowering disadvantaged groups 6)Anti-corruption 7)Security sector reform and actions against traffickers and insurgents

18. STRATEGY shift expectations with coherent narrative: security, economics and identity/justice IMPLEMENTATION innovative institutional models; sequencing; rhythm of repeated successes BROADENING AND DEEPENING access to jobs, assets, services; shared values International Action Diminish external stress; support national capabilities shifting expectations, building capability, sustaining peaceful development

19. directions for change Norms and goals – Realism based on historical benchmarks – Principle-based, not institutions and procedures Prevention – Need for new instruments – Under-resourced sectors (police, justice, job creation, agriculture, public-private partnerships) Regional and global – Regional economic initiatives for peace-building – Strengthening anti-trafficking initiatives Supplementary capacity: – improved performance: speed; duration; risk management; coordinating pol/security/dev strategy; progress indicators

20. Three Emerging Lessons Moderate Ambition – Drop insistence on Best practice – Accept Time and turnarounds will be slow Ambitious Moderation – Work on legitimacy and social contract – Experimentation and Adaptation Innovation Accept Greater Risk – Working ‘with the grain’ vs. donor values – Balance reportable results with process concerns

21. thank you 21