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Published byReginald McCoy Modified over 8 years ago
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Global Financial Landscape The New Normal and Implications for Real Estate Finance - Taiwan Prof James D. Shilling Michael J. Horne Chair in Real Estate Studies DePaul University
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Lesson #1: Shortage of Capital Elsewhere in the World Stimulus is out and deficit reduction is in. Graph Illustrating G20 Budget Deficit as % of GDP Source: Economists
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Lesson #2: US regions that are like Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain, and now Britain Graph Illustrating places that are struggling to repay their debt
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Lesson #3: More favorable pricing is returning to real estate markets Graph Illustrating real estate income yields on US properties Source: NCREIF
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Lesson #4: Fortunately, Asia is ahead of Europe and US in terms of GDP growth Graph Illustrating estimated GDP growth for 2010 Source: Economists
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Lesson #5: Time to re-evaluate portfolio allocations
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Lesson #6: Problems that could impede increased capital flows to the region Liquidity leads the way Publicly-traded REITs are needed to provide liquidity Without a well-established REIT market in Asia, how do foreign investors invest more in Asian real estate? How do foreign investors go about investing in companies they know (Merton’s argument)?
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Lesson #7: Asian investors may have pushed up prices too high relative to current income (De Bondt and Thaler argument) Graph Illustrating REIT PE multiples, 2009-2010 Source: NAREIT, FTSE
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Lesson #8: A broader perspective is needed Individuals worldwide will need increased liquidity in their retirement portfolios
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Lesson #9: ECFA should lead to higher real estate valuations Graphs illustrating relationship between current account deficits and real appreciation of real estate Source: Aizenman and Jinjarak (2008)
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Source: FTSE NAREIT US REIT Index Monthly Return. Lesson #10: Dealing with leverage and volatility will be key Graph illustrating US REIT stock price volatility
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