1. „Stav eurozóny na začátku roku 2014 - jak jsou na tom členské státy?” Europeum Praha -- 12. březen 2014 -- Zdeněk Čech Ekonomický poradce Zastoupení Evropské komise v České republice

2. 2 World trade and Global PMI manufacturing output EC Winter 2014 forecast: Global economic conditions Source: Commission services

3. 3 Economic sentiment 100 = long-term average Source: Commission services

4. Ten-year government-bond yields, selected EU Member States 4 Sovereign bond markets Source: Commission services

5. 5 Credit standards and credit demand for loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area Credit conditions Source: ECB Bank Landing Survey

6. 6 GDP growth in the EU Source: Commission services

7. 7 GDP growth in the EU Source: Commission services

8. 8 European growth map 2014 Source: Commission services

9. 9 European growth map 2015 Source: Commission services

10. 10 Inflation Source: Commission services

11. 11 Employment Source: Commission services

12. 12 Public finances Source: Commission services

13. 13 Current account imbalances… Source: Commission services

14. II. IDR 2014 Package Communication (Results of in-depth reviews) 'Umbrella' for the whole package Identifies excessive imbalances, imbalances and no imbalances IDRs (in-depth reviews) for 17 Member States BE, BG, DE, DK, IE, ES, FI, FR, HR, HU, IT, LU, MT, NL, SE, SI, UK. Third round of MIP Two Autonomous Commission Recommendations in the context of EDP FR and SI A new instrument under the 2-pack for the euro area.

15. MIP scoreboard

16. MIP: Reminder of the Procedure Alert mechanism report Nov. 2013 Programme countries their own enhanced surveillance No problem Procedure stops In-depth reviews Commission prepares in- depth country reviews (IDR), using a wide set of indicators and analytical tools. Now No problem Procedure stops Excessive imbalances Imbalances Recommendations under European Semester June 2014 Decision on triggering corrective action (it depends on quality of NRPs and SPs/CPs) June 2014 Monitoring and subsequent steps

17. Findings of the IDRs Excessive ImbalancesSI, HR, IT opening of corrective arm will be decided in June after examination of NRPs and SGPs Imbalances BE, BG, DE, IE, ES, FR, HU, NL, FI, SE, UK of which requiring decisive action: IE, ES, FR, HU No ImbalancesDK, MT, LU

18. MIPSGP IT Excessive imbalances Specific monitoring to be put in motion Not yet at MTO SI Excessive imbalances Specific monitoring to continue Under EDP (2015) Autonomous Commission Recommendation IE Imbalances requiring decisive policy action Post-programme surveillance Under EDP (2015) ES Imbalances requiring decisive policy action Post-programme surveillance Under EDP (2016) FR Imbalances requiring decisive policy action Specific monitoring to be put in motion Under EDP (2015) Autonomous Commission Recommendation Findings Euro Area Member States

19. MIPSGP BE ImbalancesUnder EDP (2013) DE ImbalancesOverachieving MTO NL ImbalancesUnder EDP (2014) FI ImbalancesNot yet at MTO MT No imbalanceUnder EDP (2014) LU No imbalanceOverachieving MTO Findings Euro Area Member States

20. Main Cross-country Messages (1) Moderate recovery, changing challenges, need for an euro area dimension of imbalances assessment External sustainability remains an issue for several countries: the flow imbalances have been overcome but the debt stocks are still there Persistent, very large current account surpluses, often reflecting subdued domestic demand or deleveraging in a few countries Cost competitiveness remains crucial and non-cost competitiveness also plays a role

21. Main Cross-country Messages (2) Deleveraging is occurring in the private sector; private debt remains high in several countries Housing market appears to be bottoming out in many countries Unemployment and other indicators of social stress remain very high

22. The pace of fiscal adjustment set to decelerate in the EU and euro area, thanks to last years' efforts Public debt ratio peaking in 2014 Risk of non-compliance with EDP recommendations for some Member States, notably FR and SI. Main Cross-country Messages (3)

23. Trade and financial spill overs justify coordinated action to  Strengthen domestic demand and medium-term growth in Germany  Address bottlenecks to medium-term growth while working on structural reforms and fiscal consolidation in France and Italy  Continue the orderly deleveraging and structural transformation in Spain The euro area CSR gives responsibility to the Eurogroup for the aggregate policy stance in the euro area to ensure the good functioning of the monetary union and increase growth and employment Euro Area Dimension of Imbalances

24. IDRs Cover a Very Wide Range of Issues Main issues External sustainabilityES, IE, FR, HR, HU Presistent large surplusDE, (NL, SE, LU) Price/non-price competitivenessBE, FR, IT, HU, SI, FI, UK, ES, HR, DK, LU Housing and mortgage marketsES, NL, SE, UK, IE, HU Households indebtednessDK, IE, ES, FR, HR, HU, MT, NL, LU, SE, UK Firms indebtednessIE, ES, HR, HU, NL, SI, UK, LU Labour marketBG, IE, ES Financial sector stabilityIT, ES, IE, SI Other issues Public debt, potential growth, subdued demand/low investment Unemployment, energy dependence, innovation and R&D, state-owned enterprise, networks, FDI

25. Next Steps National reform programmes and stability/convergence programme: April 2014 Spring forecasts:May 2014 Recommendations under the Eur. Semester: June 2014 - for all Member States (exc. programme countries) - specific attention for Member States with imbalances and excessive imbalances - if necessary triggering the corrective arm for IT, HR, SI Specific monitoring of policy implementation - IT, HR, SI - IE, ES, FR

26. Thank you for your attention