1. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management Professor A.K.M. Saiful Islam Lecture-1: Module-1 and 2 Climate System, Global Warming Green House gases 3 May 2016 Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)

2. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Module-1 Climate System and Hydrologic cycle  Atmosphere  Cryosphere: Sea, Ice sheet, Glacier  Hydrosphere: River, Lakes, ocean interactions  Hydrologic Cycle  Biosphere and Ecosystem

3. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Module-2 Climate variability and climate change  Global warming and green house gases  Historic aspects of global climate change  Climate change in South Asian context: Case study

4. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Weather and Climate Climate Variability and Change

5. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Weather and Climate change Weather describes current atmospheric conditions, such as rainfall, temperature, and wind speed, at a particular place and time. It changes from day to day. Climate is the average (or ‘normal’) pattern of weather for a particular place over several decades. Changes in climate are hard to detect without very long-term records. “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get” Heinlein, 1974.

6. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Climate Variability Climate variability can be defined by climate patterns such as the El-Niño Southern Oscillation and climate change refers to things which happen over centuries, like global warming. air temperature over five years

7. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam

8. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Climate Systems The complicated system consisting of various components, including the dynamics and composition of the atmosphere, the ocean, the ice and snow cover, the land surface and its features, the many mutual interactions between them, and the large variety of physical, chemical and biological processes taking place in and among these components. Climate refers to the state of the climate system as a whole, including a statistical description of its variations. Atmosphere  78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases.  Carbon dioxide accounts for just 0.03 - 0.04%.  Water vapor 0 to 2%

9. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Components of Climate System

10. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam

11. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Green house gases CO 2 and some other minor gases 1. Absorb some of the thermal radiation leaving the surface of the earth. 2. Emit radiation from much higher and colder levels out to space. These radiatively active gases are known as greenhouse gases.  They act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the surface which enables it to be substantially warmer than it would otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse.

12. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Green house effect

13. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Green house effect

14. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam

15. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Green house gas effect

16. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam

17. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Human induced climate variation Perturbations of the atmospheric composition – the enhanced greenhouse effect Effect of aerosols:  direct effect (scattering of incoming solar radiation)  indirect effect (affecting the radiative properties of clouds) Land-use change (agriculture, deforestation, reforestation, afforestation, urbanisation, traffic, …)

18. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Human induced changes of green house gases

19. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Increasing trends of CO 2

20. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam CO 2 from the measuring station at Mauna Loa (Hawaii) is located at an altitude of 3400 meters

21. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Global temperature and Greenhouse gases

22. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Temperature variation past 1,000 years

23. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Increase of Temperature past 140 year

24. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Trends of increase of Temperature

25. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Recent trends of increasing temperature

26. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Global mean land-ocean surface temperature base period: 1951-1980

27. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Rise of temperature This graph illustrates the change in global surface temperature relative to 1951-1980 average LATEST MEASUREMENT: January 2015 0.87 °C http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

28. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Surface Air temperature (1960-1990)

29. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Changes of Sea Surface Temperature https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/sea-surface-temp.html

30. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Trends of Global Land Precipitations Time series for 1900 to 2005 of annual global land precipitation anomalies (mm) with respect to the 1981 to 2000 base period https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch3s3-3-2.html

31. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Arctic Sea Ice melting Images gathered from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program of NASA show the minimum Arctic sea ice concentration 1979 (left) and 2003 (right). 19792003 2012 Yellow line represents Area 30 years before http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html

32. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Cracks in Ice bars

33. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Sea level rise Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global warming: the added water from melting land ice and the expansion of sea water as it warms. The first chart tracks the change in sea level since 1993 as observed by satellites. The second chart, derived from coastal tide gauge data, shows how much sea level changed from about 1870 to 2000. http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

34. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Decreasing Land Ice Data from NASA's GRACE satellites show that the land ice sheets in both Antarctica and Greenland are losing mass. The continent of Antarctica has been losing about 134 billion metric tons of ice per year since 2002, while the Greenland ice sheet has been losing an estimated 287 gigatonnes per year. (Source: GRACE satellite data) http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/land-ice/

35. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Changes of Sea Surface Temperature

36. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Responsibility ?

37. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Global Emission 2005

38. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Global Emission

39. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Per capita emission

40. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Bangladesh 1990 – 0.1 ton 2009 – 0.36 ton

41. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Per capita CO 2 emission in 2005

42. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam Per capita CO 2 emission in 2014

43. WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam