1. The Role of Public Opinion in American Democracy Henriët Hendriks University of Minnesota Henriët Hendriks University of Minnesota

2. On December 3, 1995, President Clinton ordered the first group of American soldiers to go to Bosnia for peacekeeping purposes in former Yugoslavia. Do you think the United States has a responsibility to do something about the fighting between the Serbs and Bosnians in what used to be Yugoslavia, or doesn't the United States have this responsibility? Has 30% Doesn't have 64 Don't know 6 Source: Times Mirror, Date: Jun. 25, 1995

3. On September 25, 2006, President Bush issued the first veto of his entire presidency, which concerned a bill that would have loosened restrictions on federal funding for stem-cell research. Do you favor or oppose expanding federal funding for embryonic stem cell research, which is the practice of conducting scientific research on cells extracted from human embryos in an attempt to find cures or treatments for diseases? Do you strongly favor/ oppose it or somewhat favor/ oppose it? strongly favor 52% somewhat favor 16 somewhat oppose 7 strongly oppose 20 not sure 5 Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, Date: Jul. 2006

4. Do you approve or disapprove of stem cell research — that is, medical research using tissue from human embryos? Total Democrat Republican Independent approve 63% 73% 48% 69% disapprove 24 14 38 19 don't know 14 13 14 13 Source: Fox Broadcasting Company, Date: Aug. 10, 2006

5. Overview Historical background of public opinion in American politics: Framers Rise of public opinion poll Presidents and public opinion: some evidence Responsiveness Conditional responsiveness Manipulation or crafted talk What do you think? Historical background of public opinion in American politics: Framers Rise of public opinion poll Presidents and public opinion: some evidence Responsiveness Conditional responsiveness Manipulation or crafted talk What do you think?

6. History of Public Opinion in American Politics Framers: Wary of too much direct public influence in politics Favored more indirect influence: public opinion filtered through representatives Federalist #10: “The effect of [the delegation of government] is to refine and enlarge the public views, by passing them through the medium of a chosen body of citizens, whose wisdom may best discern the true interests of their country, and whose patriotism and love of justice, will be least likely to sacrifice it to temporary or partial considerations. Under such a regulation, it may well happen, that the public voice, pronounced by the representatives of the people, will be more consonant to the public good, than if pronounced by the people themselves, convened for the purposes.” Framers: Wary of too much direct public influence in politics Favored more indirect influence: public opinion filtered through representatives Federalist #10: “The effect of [the delegation of government] is to refine and enlarge the public views, by passing them through the medium of a chosen body of citizens, whose wisdom may best discern the true interests of their country, and whose patriotism and love of justice, will be least likely to sacrifice it to temporary or partial considerations. Under such a regulation, it may well happen, that the public voice, pronounced by the representatives of the people, will be more consonant to the public good, than if pronounced by the people themselves, convened for the purposes.”

7. Rise of the Public Opinion Poll First scientific polling in 1930s Before1960s, public opinion research was not very systematic and presidents used polls sparingly. Since Kennedy, the existence of a “public opinion apparatus” in the White House: “an operation that was centralized in the White House and organized around routinized procedures for assembling public opinion data and conducting public relations activities” (from Jacobs and Shapiro - The Rise of Presidential Polling). First scientific polling in 1930s Before1960s, public opinion research was not very systematic and presidents used polls sparingly. Since Kennedy, the existence of a “public opinion apparatus” in the White House: “an operation that was centralized in the White House and organized around routinized procedures for assembling public opinion data and conducting public relations activities” (from Jacobs and Shapiro - The Rise of Presidential Polling).

8. Rise of Public Opinion Polling in the White House Nixon instructed his staff to track “what moves and concerns the average guy” and to fight the tendency to “get out of touch … [because of the] White House[‘s] almost total isolation from the real world” ( from Jacobs and Shapiro - The Rise of Presidential Polling ). KennedyJohnsonNixon Total # of private polls 93 (1958-63) 130 (1963-68) 233 (1969-72) # of polls during presidential election 77 (1958-60 ) 48 (1963-64, and 1968) 153 (1972) # of polls during governing period 16 (1961-63) 82 (1965-67) 80 (1969-71)

9. “This poll should be running in the comics, right next to Garfield” (Reaction of Kennedy Campaign to StarTribune poll which showed Klobuchar ahead by 24 points). But really? Do political elites respond to public opinion?

10. Responsiveness Page and Shapiro (1983) Political elites are responsive: Public policy follows public opinion rather than vice versa Page and Shapiro (1983) Political elites are responsive: Public policy follows public opinion rather than vice versa

11. Conditional Responsiveness Canes-Wrone and Shotts (2004) Policy congruence: When a president proposes an increase/decrease in spending and more respondents prefer an increase/decrease in spending. General hypothesis: Presidents respond to public opinion depending on certain political conditions: Whether the issue is salient (i.e. issues that are most familiar to citizens): crime, health, and Social Security (see table 1) Whether the next election is near, and The state of their popularity ratings. Canes-Wrone and Shotts (2004) Policy congruence: When a president proposes an increase/decrease in spending and more respondents prefer an increase/decrease in spending. General hypothesis: Presidents respond to public opinion depending on certain political conditions: Whether the issue is salient (i.e. issues that are most familiar to citizens): crime, health, and Social Security (see table 1) Whether the next election is near, and The state of their popularity ratings.

12. Conditional Responsiveness Linear relationship between presidential popularity and responsiveness Relationship is the same throughout a president’s term

13. Conditional Responsiveness This hypothesis takes into account when the next election will occur Non-linear relationship

14. Manipulation of Public Opinion Jacobs and Shapiro (2000) Crafted talk: “Politicians craft how they present their policy stances in order to attract favorable press coverage and “win” public support for what they desire” (p. 27). Use of public opinion polls Not to inform decisions but to identify symbols, words, and arguments that resonate with the public Instrumental versus substantive responsiveness Jacobs and Shapiro (2000) Crafted talk: “Politicians craft how they present their policy stances in order to attract favorable press coverage and “win” public support for what they desire” (p. 27). Use of public opinion polls Not to inform decisions but to identify symbols, words, and arguments that resonate with the public Instrumental versus substantive responsiveness

15. Fight over words Clinton on Health Care Reform: “So tonight I want to talk to you about the principles that I believe must embody our efforts to reform America's health care system: security, simplicity, savings, choice, quality, and responsibility.” (Congressional address, Sept. 22, 1993) Harry and Louise ads by opponents Clinton on Health Care Reform: “So tonight I want to talk to you about the principles that I believe must embody our efforts to reform America's health care system: security, simplicity, savings, choice, quality, and responsibility.” (Congressional address, Sept. 22, 1993) Harry and Louise ads by opponents

16. Conclusions Public opinion is everywhere due to the rise of public opinion polling. This complicates how we think of democracy and what the role of the public is/should be. Political elites are strategic in their response to public opinion: Issues matter Time matters Popularity matters Public opinion is everywhere due to the rise of public opinion polling. This complicates how we think of democracy and what the role of the public is/should be. Political elites are strategic in their response to public opinion: Issues matter Time matters Popularity matters

17. What do you think? Do public opinion polls lead to more political responsiveness? Or do they lead to the manipulation of public opinion? And, knowing what we know about public opinion, should political elites even listen to public opinion? Were the Framers right? What is the role of the media? Do public opinion polls lead to more political responsiveness? Or do they lead to the manipulation of public opinion? And, knowing what we know about public opinion, should political elites even listen to public opinion? Were the Framers right? What is the role of the media?