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Published byJames O’Brien’ Modified over 8 years ago
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Mercer Human Resource Consulting Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a member of the General Insurance Standards Council Registered in England No. 984275 Registered Office: Telford House, 14 Tothill Street, London SW1H 9NB Chris Hull FIA NORTH YORKSHIRE PENSION FUND 2004 Valuation Initial Results 25 October 2004
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2 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Agenda Purpose of valuation Review 2001 results Key assumptions and link to Investment Strategy 2004 Results Deficit Recovery FRS17
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3 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Purpose Review contribution programme Contribution programme Funding strategy/ principles Deficit recovery period Investment strategy/ structure Employer consultation
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4 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Ongoing “future service” cost – depends on current employees “Past service” adjustment – offset or addition depending on assets compared to liabilities – depends on past experience LGPS Funding
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5 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Agenda Purpose of valuation Review 2001 results Key assumptions and link to Investment Strategy 2004 Results Deficit Recovery FRS17
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6 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Key Financial Assumptions 2001 valuation Pension increases = inflation Salary increases = inflation + 1.5% p.a. Investment return = gilt yields + 1.0% p.a.
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7 Mercer Human Resource Consulting 2001 Valuation Employer Contributions Cost of ongoing accrual17.4% Less Employee contributions5.8%11.6% Plus Adjustment for deficit6.1% Average employer rate17.7% (excluding early retirement payments) Deficit spread over future working lifetime of 15 years.
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8 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Agenda Purpose of valuation Review 2001 results Key assumptions and link to Investment Strategy 2004 Results Deficit Recovery FRS17
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9 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Integrated funding and investment strategy to target agreed funding level over a period Achieved through combination of “prudent” level of investment out-performance, increased contribution input and/or extended recovery Link out-performance assumptions to investment strategy adopted and liability profile 2004 Funding Strategy - Targeted Funding
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10 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Equity Risk Premium Summary of historical annual return differential between UK equities and UK Government gilts Actual equity risk premium from 1903 to 2002
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11 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Equity Risk Premium Expected outperformance of equities over gilts Prudence or best estimate? Confidence in the future? Variation with Market Conditions? Valuation Model:
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12 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Agenda Purpose of valuation Review 2001 results Key assumptions and link to Investment Strategy 2004 Results Deficit Recovery FRS17
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13 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Membership 31 March 2004 31 March 2001 10,494 44,849 12,221 22,134 35,745 9,650 7,697 18,398
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14 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Financial background Asset returns
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15 Mercer Human Resource Consulting 2004 Valuation Key Assumptions 20012004 Fixed interest gilt yields4.6% Index linked gilt real yields2.3%1.8% Implied inflation2.3%2.8% Asset out-performance -pre-retirement1.0%2.0% -post-retirement1.0%0.5% Real salary growth assumption1.5%1.75%
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16 Mercer Human Resource Consulting 2004 Valuation Financial Assumptions Past Service (current yields basis) Future Service (long term basis) Pension increases2.8%2.5% Earnings increases4.55%4.25% Investment return: pre-retirement6.6%6.5% post-retirement5.1%6.5% Assetsmarket value
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17 Mercer Human Resource Consulting 2004 results MV of assets£765.8m Past service liabilities£1,290.3m Deficit£524.5m Funding level59.4% Future service rate (After removal of Rule of 85 terms) 10.4%
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18 Mercer Human Resource Consulting 2004 Results Analysis of past service shortfall 2004 funding level 59.4% (79.5% 2001)
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19 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Agenda Purpose of valuation Review 2001 results Key assumptions and link to Investment Strategy 2004 Results Deficit Recovery FRS17
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20 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Effect of Extended Deficit Recovery
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21 Mercer Human Resource Consulting 2004 Results Average Employer Contributions 20 year Recovery 25 year Recovery 30 year recovery Future service (assumes removal of Rule of 85 terms) 10.4% Deficit Recovery contributions10.1%8.3%7.1% Average required rate (excluding early retirement costs) 20.5%18.7%17.5% 2001 average target rate was 17.7% of pensionable payroll 30 year period determined by PFC as maximum allowable
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22 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Next Stages Consultation with employers on key issues – Deficit recovery – Bespoke investment strategies Process individual employer results Consider phasing of contribution increases where required
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23 Mercer Human Resource Consulting Agenda Purpose of valuation Review 2001 results Key assumptions and link to Investment Strategy 2004 Results Deficit Recovery FRS17
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24 Mercer Human Resource Consulting FRS17 - Overview Detailed disclosure requirements Charge cost of accruals, not contributions Surplus/deficit not amortised through Revenue account Balance sheet asset/liability
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25 Mercer Human Resource Consulting FRS17 comparison with actuarial valuation FRS17 More prescriptive Underlying discount rate = currently 3½% real determined by HM Treasury 2004/5 SORP changing to Corporate Bond yields basis (approach to transition not yet certain) Immediate recognition of past service effects Includes unfunded benefits (e.g. CAY)
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26 Mercer Human Resource Consulting FRS17 comparison with actuarial valuation The Valuation Long term funding plan Assumptions not prescribed, and can include allowance for equity outperformance Flexibility in treatment deficits – Length of recovery period – Phasing of contribution increases
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