1. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013 Crop Outlook 2013 National Agricultural Credit Conference San Diego, California Apr. 17, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use 20092010201120122013 Area Planted(mil. acres)86.488.291.997.297.3 Yield(bu./acre)164.7152.8147.2123.4163.6 Production(mil. bu.)13,09212,44712,36010,78014,642 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6731,7081,128989757 Imports(mil. bu.)8282912525 Total Supply(mil. bu.)14,77414,18213,51611,89415,424 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,1254,7954,5454,4005,400 Ethanol(mil. bu.)4,5915,0195,0114,5504,675 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3701,4071,4281,3871,435 Exports(mil. bu.)1,9801,8341,5438001,500 Total Use(mil. bu.)13,06613,05512,52711,13713,010 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,7081,1289897572,414 Season-Average Price($/bu.)3.555.186.226.904.80 Source: USDA-WAOB, for 2009-12

3. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 20092010201120122013 Area Planted(mil. acres)77.577.475.077.277.1 Yield(bu./acre)44.043.541.939.644.5 Production(mil. bu.)3,3593,3293,0943,0153,387 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)138151215169125 Imports(mil. bu.)1514162015 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,5123,4953,3253,2043,527 Crush(mil. bu.)1,7521,6481,7031,6351,660 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.)1101309095135 Exports(mil. bu.)1,4991,5011,3621,3501,500 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,3613,2803,1553,0803,295 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)151215169125232 Season-Average Price($/bu.)9.5911.3012.5014.3010.50 Source: USDA-WAOB, for 2009-12

4. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 20092010201120122013 Area Planted(mil. acres)59.253.654.455.756.4 Yield(bu./acre)44.546.343.746.345.2 Production(mil. bu.)2,2182,2071,9992,2692,116 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)657976862743731 Imports(mil. bu.)11997112130 Total Supply(mil. bu.)2,9933,2792,9743,1422,977 Food(mil. bu.)919926941950956 Seed(mil. bu.)697176 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)150132164360300 Exports(mil. bu.)8791,2891,0501,025950 Total Use(mil. bu.)2,0182,4172,2312,4112,282 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)976862743731695 Season-Average Price($/bu.)4.875.707.247.807.00 Source: USDA-WAOB, for 2009-12

5. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 20092010201120122013 Area Planted(mil. acres)9.1510.9714.7412.3210.0 Yield(lb./acre)777812790880800 Production(mil. bales)12.1918.1015.5717.2914.0 Beg. Stocks(mil. bales)6.342.952.603.354.2 Imports(mil. bales)0.000.010.020.010.0 Total Supply(mil. bales)18.5321.0618.1920.6518.2 Domestic Use(mil. bales)3.553.903.303.403.5 Exports(mil. bales)12.0414.3811.7113.0011.3 Total Use(mil. bales)15.5918.2815.0116.4014.8 Ending Stocks(mil. bales)2.952.603.354.203.4 Average Farm Price($/lb.)0.6290.8150.8830.7200.730 Source: USDA-WAOB, for 2009-12

6. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Price Ratios Since June 1

7. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre

8. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre

9. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cotton Yields Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Pounds/acre

10. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Winter Wheat Acreage Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2013 Planted Acreage Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: 1,000 acres

11. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Snow Cover Source: USDA-WAOB and NOAA

12. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

13. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

14. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB

15. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Cotton Production Source: USDA-WAOB

16. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

17. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

18. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

19. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

20. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

21. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

22. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cotton Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

23. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Source: USDA-WAOB

24. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

25. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Stocks

26. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal.

27. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 4/12/2013

28. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 4/12/2013

29. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Wheat Futures Source: KCBOT, 4/12/2013

30. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Cotton Futures Source: ICE, 4/12/2013

31. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

32. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Acreage Shift by Crop Source: USDA-NASS Acreage change from 2012 Units: 1,000 acres

33. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Acreage Shift by State Source: USDA-NASS Top: Intended planting in 2013 Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: 1,000 acres

34. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

35. 3 Month Outlook - Precip

36. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 3 Month Outlook - Temps

37. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond  Supply/demand concerns  Soil moisture issues  Biofuel and export strength  Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 Futures (4/12/13) Corn$6.90$5.18 Soybeans$14.30$11.72 Wheat$7.80$7.08 Cotton$0.72~$0.82

38. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/