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Published byArnold Price Modified over 8 years ago
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October 11, 2005 PRESENTATION TO THE 1818 SOCIETY The World Bank
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Road Map Introduction Funded Status Asset Allocation Market Environment Plan Performance
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Assets versus Liabilities, 1994-2004 * n Assets grew by $1.0 billion during CY04 n Assets exceeded the actuarial PBO and ABO liabilities at the end CY04 Note: The actuarial present value of plan liabilities is determined on the basis of actuarial assumptions and are discounted currently at a 3.5% real rate
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Plan Funded Status 1994 - 2004 Note: The funded ratio is the ratio of the market value of assets to the actuarial present value of plan liabilities.
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SRP Participants
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n Bank contribution rates increased from 25.62% of net salaries in FY05 to 26.72% for FY06. Annual Contributions and Payments 1994-2004
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Total Plan Public Equities Fixed Income Alternatives 100.0 35.0 40.0 25.0 Strategic Asset Allocation 100.0 40.0 20.0 Policy (%) Decision Date Dec. 98 Dec. 00 Jul. 01 Apr. 02 Jun. 03 100.0 55.0 25.0 20.0 100.0 70.0 20.0 10.0 100.0 60.0 20.0 n No changes were made to the Strategic Asset Allocation in 2004 and 2005.
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Market Environment 2004 - Equities Global Equity markets posted strong returns in 2004, with most of the run up in Q4
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Market Environment 2004 – Fixed Income Fixed Income markets also performed well, supported by a benign interest rate environment despite the start of the tightening cycle
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Market Environment 2004 – Alternatives Alternative markets (Hedge Funds, Private Equity and Real Estate) good market for private equity realizations; strong capital flows into real estate continued to push valuations upward
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Plan Performance (2004) U.S. Equity 12.512.0 0.5 Non-U.S. Equity 19.121.1-2.0 Fixed Income 5.6 4.8 0.8 Hedge Funds 8.9 4.0 4.9 Private Equity 21.714.2 7.5 Real Estate 20.017.4 2.6 Currency Overlay* -3.5 -3.8 0.3 Excess Return Policy Return Plan Return 11.0 9.9 1.1 Total Plan In 2004, SRP assets posted a return of 11.0%, outperforming its policy portfolio by 1.1%, with a majority of asset classes outperforming their benchmarks. *Currency Overlay program is for hedging the net currency exposure for the Plan
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Plan Performance (Jan ’05 – Aug ‘05) U.S. Equity 3.7 3.1 0.6 2.0 12.5 Non-U.S. Equity 7.1 6.5 0.6 4.4 19.1 Fixed Income 4.1 4.1 0.0 3.2 5.6 Hedge Funds 4.6 1.6 3.1 4.4 8.9 Private Equity*4.1 2.9 1.2 6.0 21.7 Real Estate* 4.5 4.5 0.0 8.6 20.0 Excess Return Policy Return Plan Return 5.4 4.7 0.7 Total Plan *PE and RE are preliminary **Currency Overlay program is for hedging the net currency exposure for the Plan Absolute returns have come down in 2005 Markets can change quickly, as witnessed in the last quarter of 2004 Sept 04 YTD Plan Dec 04 Plan 3.7 11.0
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Source: State Street Gross Returns (period ending December 31, 2004) Plan Performance
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Source: State Street Gross Returns (periods ending December 31, 2004) Plan Performance
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Plan Volatility (Periods ending June ‘05) U.S. Equity 9.015.715.3 Non-U.S. Equity 10.715.7 15.1 Fixed Income 1.6 2.9 3.3 Hedge Funds 2.6 3.516.9 Private Equity10.311.014.4 Real Estate 8.1 6.9 9.9 10 Year 5 Year 1 Year 4.2 8.5 9.4 Total Plan Volatility of returns has fallen in most asset classes in recent years Lower volatility is accompanied by less differentiation in returns among securities, making it more difficult for active managers to outperform
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Return to Risk Ratio (Through June ‘05) U.S. Equity 1.0 0.0 0.6 Non-U.S. Equity 1.5 0.1 0.5 Fixed Income 5.3 2.5 2.5 Hedge Funds 3.2 2.0 0.6 Private Equity 1.9 1.1 1.2 Real Estate 2.2 1.7 1.2 10 Year 5 Year 1 Year 2.7 0.3 0.9 Total Plan Highest risk adjusted return in many years
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Concluding Remarks Funded status of the plan continued to improve during 2004 Market outsmarted doomsayers in 2004 – not useful to market-time Low return/low volatility environment: beware of distortions Implications for institutional investors: Diversify Look for illiquidity/intransparency premium Focus on long term trends
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