1. Impact of climate change on Himalayan Forest Ecosystems Prof. Ravindranath Indian Institute of Science Bangalore

2. Forests and climate change 1.Deforestation and land use change contribute to CO 2 emissions – IPCC; 20% of CO 2 emissions 2.Forests provide a large potential to mitigate climate change - IPCC; 15 – 20% of CO 2 emissions 3.Forests will be impacted by climate change and are highly vulnerable to climate impacts -Need for adaptation to enable forests to cope with climate change ------------------------------------------------------------- Forest sector is critical in addressing climate change Forest sector is very contentious in global negotiations

3. Climate Change projected for 2071-2100 (A2) Source: Rupa Kumar et. al. (2006)

4. Assessment of Impact of climate change on forests BIOME4: Equilibrium model Climate, vegetation, soil and water data IBIS (Integrated Biosphere Simulator): dynamic global Vegetation Model Climate, vegetation, soil and water data Climate Model: GCM and RCM data from Hadley Had RM3 data (50x50 km 2 ) Climate Change Scenarios: A2, B2 and A1B 2030s and 2070s

5. Impact on Forest and Other Vegetation Types (1975 - 2085) – IBIS Model outputs 1: tropical evergreen forest / woodland, 2: tropical deciduous forest / woodland, 3. temperate evergreen broadleaf forest / woodland, 4: temperate evergreen conifer forest / woodland, 5: temperate deciduous forest / woodland, 6: boreal evergreen forest / woodland, 7: boreal deciduous forest / woodland, 8: mixed forest / woodland, 9: savanna, 10: grassland / steppe, 11: dense shrubland, 12: open shrubland, 13: tundra, 14: desert, 15. polar desert / rock / ice

6. IBIS predictions – Baseline, A2 1: tropical evergreen forest / woodland, 2: tropical deciduous forest / woodland, 3. temperate evergreen broadleaf forest / woodland, 4: temperate evergreen conifer forest / woodland, 5: temperate deciduous forest / woodland, 6: boreal evergreen forest / woodland, 7: boreal deciduous forest / woodland, 8: mixed forest / woodland, 9: savanna, 10: grassland / steppe, 11: dense shrubland, 12: open shrubland, 13: tundra, 14: desert, 15. polar desert / rock / ice

7. Impact of A1B Scenario climate change: Baseline and 2035 (middle panel) scenarios. The grids where a change in vegetation is projected is shown in red in the rightmost panel 1.Tropical wet evergreen forests,2.Tropical semi evergreen forests, 3.Tropical moist deciduous forest, 4.Tropical dry decidious forest, 5.Tropical thorny/scrub forests, 6.Tropical dry evergreen forest,7.Littoral and swampy forest, 8.Subtropical broad -leaved hill forests, 9.Subtropical pine forests, 10.Sub-tropical dry evergreen forests, 11.Montane wet temperate forests, 12.Himalayan wet/ moist temperate forests, 13.Himalayan dry temperate forests, 14.Sub-alpine forests, 15.Moist alpine,

8. Vulnerability Index

9. Vulnerability of four Himalayan states StateNum. forest grids (2.4”x2.4”) Num forest grids changed (A2) (Table sorted) % forest grids changed (A2) Num forest grids changed (B2) % forest grids changed (B2) Himachal Pradesh 74040054.0540054.05 Uttarakhand114928324.6325622.28 Jammu and Kashmir 153518912.3151833.75 Punjab15032.003

10. Key Issues Himalayan ecosystems are subjected to degradation & Envi. stresses Disturbed Himalayan Ecosystems are vulnerable to climate variability and climate change Many uncertainties exist with respect to –Regional climate projections –Dynamic vegetation models –Socio-economic and policy impacts Need for research on CC modeling & develop Adaptation measures

11. Why Adaptation? When uncertainty in Impact Assessment Impacts will be irreversible; e.g., –loss of biodiversity Inertia in response to changing climate Long gestation period in developing & implementation of adaptation practices Waiting for full knowledge – high risk Large ecological, economic and social implications Focus on “win – win” adaptation options

12. Potential win-win Adaptation practices Anticipatory planting of species –along latitude and altitude –promote assisted natural regeneration Promote mixed species forestry - species differ in temperature tolerance. Rationalize Protected Area boundaries –linking of PAs as corridors for migration Develop and implement fire protection and management practices. Adopt thinning, sanitation and other silvi practices. Promote in situ and ex situ conservation of genetic diversity. Develop drought and pest resistance in commercial tree species. Adopt sustainable forest management practices.