1. California Energy Commission Cost of Generation Model: Cost Competition and Technology Trends Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative 2.0 Plenary Group Meeting Energy Commission: Hearing Room A March 16, 2016 Bryan Neff Supply Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division

2. California Energy Commission The What and Why What: Analyzes cost trends in utility-scale generation that may be built in California over the next decade. Financial assumptions for three ownership types: IOU, POU, and merchant. Presents instant, installed, and levelized costs. Levelized costs presented in both deterministic and probabilistic cost ranges. Why Relies on and provides a common set of assumptions. Estimates costs to developer rather than utility, ratepayer or grid operator. Transparent and publicly available.

3. California Energy Commission Levelized Cost of Energy for Selected Technologies (Real $)

4. California Energy Commission Tornado Diagram: Solar PV (Thin-Film, 100 MW)

5. California Energy Commission Tornado Diagram: Wind (Class 3, 100 MW)

6. California Energy Commission Tornado Diagram: Geothermal (Flash, 30 MW)

7. California Energy Commission Levelized Cost Range Using Probabilistic Method (Start Year = 2013)

8. California Energy Commission Questions and Comments Bryan.Neff@energy.ca.gov (916) 654-4414 2014 COG Report and Model: http://www.energy.ca.gov/2014publications/ CEC-200-2014-003/index.html Historic Versions: http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/ cost_of_generation_report.html