1. The Resilience of England’s Transport Systems in Winter An Independent Review Interim Report – and what can the public expect? David Quarmby CBE, Panel Chairman National Highways and Transport Network 28 September 2010

2. Introduction Origins of the Review Last two winters, lessons learned and the salt crisis Scope of Interim and Final Reports Interim report to focus on highways and next winter Final report to cover rail, aviation and longer term issues England only, but embracing Wales and Scotland experience Approach of the Review Evidence from 130 organisations, Hearings with 33 Visits to Salt Mines and highway authorities Informal discussions with experts Analytical input

3. Agenda Key principles Background Key issues Salt and the supply chain Highway Authorities and their responsibilities Salt Utilisation and Technical Standards Footways and self-help Weather forecasting Public engagement, communications and expectation Main recommendations and the response Issues for the Final Report

4. Key Principles UKRLG report (July 2009) and Well Maintained Highways as starting point LHAs independent statutory bodies, locally accountable, but responsibility to adopt best practice, recognise interdependence for salt The need for Salt Cell-type interventions should arise only under the most exceptional circumstances Solutions for the salt supply chain should be market- based, with minimal targeted intervention to achieve vital resilience, not heavily-managed solutions

5. Background Winter 2008-09 – key features

6. Background Winter 2009-10 – key features

7. Background Operation of Salt Cell in winter 2009-10 (Jan-March)

8. Background Annual analysis of salt stocks and flows for England: 2009-2010

9. Key issues: Salt and the Supply Chain Problem of uncertain demand 0.75-1.0m tonnes in mild winter (England only) 1.8m used in 2009-2010; potential demand up to 2.2m (England only) Limited production flex by UK suppliers; need to supplement with imports in severe winter Comparable supply chains have substantial buffer stocks, market has failed so far to create them for salt Salt supply chain is vulnerable and non-resilient Avoid Salt Cell-type allocation with last winter as benchmark

10. Key issues: Salt and the Supply Chain Recommendation for next winter: strategic buffer stock of 0.25m tonnes, managed by HA on behalf of nation And review at end December whether more is needed DfT: systematic year-round process of monitoring and disseminating salt stocks and movements Already identified shortfall of UK production capacity to meet highway authorities re-stocking plans for November 2010 Final Report will consider and recommend action for longer term measures for the salt supply chain

11. Key issues: Local Highway Authorities Some 150 LHAs and the Highways Agency responsible for winter service on England’s road networks In London, TfL for TLRN and boroughs for local roads Critical role of winter planning and consultation Engagement of all major stakeholders including transport operators Relevance of Best Practice Integrate with wider resilience planning

12. Key issues: Salt Utilisation & standards Drivers for review Advances in technology, equipment and products Experience from “using less” last winter Less salt = lower cost and less vulnerability to shortage Research and knowledge exists, but unclear how widely known/used HA is leader on standards review and use of research NWSRG done good work on standards and methods, needs to be available to whole industry, under wing of UKRLG

13. Key issues: Footways and self help Not enough attention to footways Key pedestrian routes to stations, bus interchanges, pedestrianised areas Growing importance of cycleways Engagement of lower tier authorities – districts, town and parish councils – communities, farmers Frontagers – and the SNOW CODE

14. Key issues: Weather forecasting Short term (up to five days) By Met Office and Meteo Group – high quality and accuracy Medium term (up to 30 days) Probabilistic forecasts increasingly valuable and used Longer term (seasonal forecasts up to 6 month ahead) Remains very challenging Climate trends over several years

15. Key issues: Weather forecasting Climate trends Probability of next winter being severe is virtually unrelated to the severity of the previous winter – still about 1 in 20 Effect of climate change is slowly but steadily reduce the probability of severe winters in the UK However, when severe winters come, they could still be extreme – esp snowfall, winds and storms Higher risk that authorities and the public could be less experienced and capable of handling severe winters Need for comprehensive resilience planning

16. Public engagement, communication and expectations Consultation on networks to be treated Communicating winter service plans to the community Real-time information during winter disruption Footways and cycleways Engaging local communities in self help The ‘Snow code’ Expectations about winter resilience and expenditure

17. Main Recommendations Salt supply chain Strategic reserve stock for 2010-11 winter, managed by HA Systematic year-round monitoring/reporting of salt stocks Local Highway Authorities Robust and broadly-consulted winter service plan, using best practice, supported by clear and comprehensive communications Collaborate with lower-tier authorities, inc on footways Participate in year-round salt data collection and monitoring Ensure own planning of salt stocks and supply is sound

18. Main Recommendations Local Highway Authorities (continued) Put in place mutual aid with neighbouring authorities Winter service to be integral part of wider resilience planning Highways Agency to continue to research and monitor its efficiency and share best practice with LHAs A comprehensive update and dissemination of technical standards and best practice led by UKRLG, and the valuable work of NWRSG be brought under its wing DfT to develop a ‘snow code’ for the public and business owners, for clearing snow from frontages and footways

19. Following the Report Review Team delighted with the positive response to the Interim Report All recommendations directed to government accepted by the Secretary of State on day of Report publication, and those directed to local authorities strongly commended Appreciate the broad welcome from the local government community Welcome the strategic stockpile for London

20. Issues for the Final Report Rail and Aviation being reviewed Likely to be some points for local highway authorities Longer term issues for the salt supply chain Special studies of supply chain logistics being carried out and evaluated now Economics of Winter Resilience Reviewing the costs of winter disruption to society and the economy, and considering whether the current balance with the resources committed to winter resilience is right

21. The Resilience of England’s Transport Systems in Winter An Independent Review Winter Resilience – what can the public expect? David Quarmby CBE, Panel Chairman National Highways and Transport Network 28 September 2010