1. The 28 th Dr W Idris Jones Memorial Lecture Achieving the UK’s commitment to CO 2 emissions reduction by 2010 Eoin Lees Chief Executive Energy Saving Trust

2. Contents Climate change – fact or fiction Greenhouse gases and energy activities UK commitments to UK reductions Energy supply and use – Trends and future policies Putting it all together

3. The Climate: It’s getting warmer

4. Observed and Predicted Global Temperature Change

5. Effects of Climate Change Sea level rise and more flooding destruction of natural habitats and vegetation more drought harm to health more economic damage costs could be enormous Sea level rise and more flooding destruction of natural habitats and vegetation more drought harm to health more economic damage costs could be enormous

6. Global-Mean Radiative Forcing (pre industrial to 1992)

7. Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Carbon dioxide:33% riseMethane: 100% rise

8. Atmospheric Constituents sources, lifetimes Carbon dioxideFossil fuels, 100 years land use changes MethaneAgriculture, natural gas10 years Nitrous oxideCombustion150 years Chlorofluoro-Production(refrigerants)100 years carbons

9. UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions Contributions in 2000 Carbon Dioxide84% Methane8% Nitrous Oxide6% Hydrofluorcarbons1% Perfluorocarbons0.2% Sulphur Hexafluorides0.2%

10. UK Energy related emissions to Greenhouse Gases Gas1990 Total (MtCe) 1990 % energy actual 2000 % energy actual 2010 % energy estimate CO 2 16895 96 Methane21403237 Nitrous oxide1882126 HFC/PFC/SF 6 5---

11. National emissions of CO 2

12. UK reduction commitments by 2010 Relative to UK 1990 emission levels UK at Kyoto-12.5%GHG [equivalent to –8.5% CO 2 ] UK Government-20%CO 2 cf RCEP expectation-60%by 2050

13. UK Climate Change Programme Published November 2000 New strategic focus for action Builds on positive action already being taken Signals changes that will be needed in longer term Published November 2000 New strategic focus for action Builds on positive action already being taken Signals changes that will be needed in longer term

14. DETR Predictions of emissions of Greenhouse Gases (Mtce) Year Gas 199020002010 CO 2 168154 Methane211412 Nitrous Oxide181112 HFC/PFC/SF 6 533 Total212182181 % reduction-1415 % CO 2 red.-12

15. UK Energy Consumption by Final User - 1999 Households 30% Industry 23 % Other* 14 % Transport 33% [Source: Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2000] * Other includes public sector, commerce & agriculture

16. UK CO 2 Emissions by Source - 1998 Transport 24% Households 15% Industry 26% Other* 7% Power Stations 28% * Other includes public sector, commerce & agriculture [Source: Digest of UK Environmental Statistics 2000]

17. UK Electricity Generation Mix [Source: Electricity Association] %

18. UK Electricity Generation 1940 - 1999: CO 2 Emissions per kWh Kg CO 2 /kWh [Source: Electricity Association]

19. Nuclear Power in the UK? Economics ? Political will ? Magnox & AGRs nearing end of working life New nuclear unlikely to contribute to CO 2 reductions by 2010

20. Targets and Installed CHP Capacity by Year

21. The Non-Fossil Fuel Obligation (1990) (1991) (1994) (1996) (1998) [Source: Various] NFFO 5: D.N.C. of 1177MW. Average price of 2.71 p/kWh. (cf average generation cost 1996/97 of 3.87 p/kWh) pence

22. The Electricity Challenge for 2010 Source19992010 Nuclear Power25%<20%? Renewables2.8%10%(target) Coal28%10-20% Recent Annual growth rates 1-1.5%

23. Transport - Vehicles Average fuel consumption of cars sold in UK decreased by 17% between 1978 and 1997 [Source: MIRA] In October 1998, European vehicle manufacturers reached a voluntary agreement to reduce fleet average fuel consumption by 25% by 2008

24. Transport – Cleaner Fuels? LPG and NG vehicles reduce well-to-wheel CO 2 emissions by approximately 10-15% and 20% compared to petrol and diesel respectively [ Source: Powershift] Hybrid electric vehicles – equivalent of ~80 mpg

25. Transport - Fuel Cells Future alternative to internal combustion engine: All 14 major car manufacturers have fuel cell programmes Fuel cell buses already in use in Vancouver and Chicago GM and Mercedes say production models may be available in 2005 Fuel cells using H 2 from natural gas will reduce CO 2 emissions by 30-40% (c.f. current i.c. engines)

26. Energy Consumption of UK Households by Fuel Type - 1999 Natural Gas 66% Electricity 21% Petroleum 7% Coal 4% Other 2% [Source: Digest of UK Energy Statistics 1998]

27. UK Households 80% of energy consumption is for space and water heating primarily using gas Energy efficiency measures such as improved insulation and use of heat pumps could reduce CO 2 emissions, but: The sector’s reliance on gas and slow turnover of housing stock is an infrastructural problem, limiting the potential for CO 2 reductions

28. Trends in Industrial Energy Consumption Increased energy efficiency Structural shifts Switch from coal to gas Increasing environmental pressure

29. Climate Change Levy 1st April 2001 Levy rate for gas 0.15p/kWh; electricity 0.43p/kWh Exemptions for electricity generated from renewables and ‘good quality’ CHP £150m of support for energy efficiency measures - including CHP Emissions trading

30. UK energy related CO 2 Emissions (MtC/a) 199019992010 Power Stations544134 Industry403933 Households222319 Transport3536 Other810 159149132 Change 1990-2010=27 MtC/a or 17%