1. Ecosystem modeling efforts at the NWFSC A quick overview

2. Some basics Major efforts focused on  Salmon and their environment Mostly Pacific Northwest  Groundfish and the California Current LME In addition to fisheries, a lot of effort has gone into habitat, water quality and quantity, oceans and human health, cumulative impacts

3. Some philosophical tenets common among NWFSC modeling groups We define models as  mathematical or conceptual caricatures of reality, and as such are tools that allow us to project the future state of an ecosystem or guide further inquires We develop models aimed at specific outputs and outcomes generated in collaboration with managers and stakeholders.

4. General types of models 1 employed by the NWFSC Statistical models  posit relationships between variables  fit to data, and thus they are specific to the location and the system under investigation Theoretical (analytical and simulation) models  posit mechanisms and thus lead to predictions that can be tested with data  used to understand systems and predict their properties; therefore, they are intended to be general 1 as influenced by Mangel et al. 2001 Theoretical and Statistical Models in Natural Resource Management and Research. In: Shenk and Franklin, Island Press

5. Issues that we MUST consider (we think these are somewhat different than (some) other regions) Upwelling and how its influenced by ENSO, PDO, climate change Huge influence of land use, land cover, water quantity (e.g., snow pack) Salmon Salmon Salmon Salmon Salmon ESA is huge. MSA still places a role, but less so than other centers Weak stock management Salmon

6. Generally, We use models to address the following: 1. Forecast effects of climate / oceanographic variability (and trends) on population dynamics and productivity, habitat, ecological community 2. Evaluate management strategies on target species, ecosystem indicators (and down the road, socioeconomic indicators) 3. Examine trade-offs between different desired ecosystem services 4. The potential influence of habitat restoration on freshwater and riparian ecosystems 5. Examine indirect effects and cumulative impacts across multiple human actions

7. A few examples This is not exhaustive

8. Generally, We use models to address the following: 1. Forecast effects of climate / oceanographic variability (and trends) on population dynamics and productivity, habitat, ecological community 2. Evaluate management strategies on target species, ecosystem indicators (and down the road, socioeconomic indicators) 3. Examine trade-offs between different desired ecosystem services 4. The potential influence of habitat restoration on freshwater and riparian ecosystems 5. Examine indirect effects and cumulative impacts across multiple human actions

9. California Current Plankton Production Desired Outcome  Prediction of juvenile salmon production from upwelling-driven plankton production.

10. NO 3 Pl Z DNH 4 Ps upwelling diffusion oxidation sinking mixing loss excretion egestion mortality NNPPZD California Current Plankton Production

11. Cal. Current Plankton Production

12. C  B, G R, SDA F, U Fish bioenergetics How is growth or feeding influenced by environment? size- & temperature-dependent energy budget potential applications: predation impacts climate variability  in size distributions link to other models Fecundity (1000s) Age (yr)  B = CA · W CB · CV CX · e (CX · (1 – CV)) · ED diet / ED – RA · W RB · RV RX · e (RX · (1 – RV)) · ACT · oxycal · ED – (SDA + U) · (C – F) – F – W · (GSI max – GSI min ) baseline (no ENSO events) cohort A (4 ENSOs) cohort B (7 ENSOs) delayed maturation, lower lifetime fecundity Example: rockfish response to repeated ENSO events (Harvey 2005)

13. Output and Outcomes of Bioenergetic work Output – changes in growth, size structure and reproductive output as a function of a variety of environmental parameters Outcome – increased precision of stock and ecosystem assessment models

14. Generally, We use models to address the following: 1. Forecast effects of climate / oceanographic variability (and trends) on population dynamics and productivity, habitat, ecological community 2. Evaluate management strategies on target species, ecosystem indicators (and down the road, socioeconomic indicators) 3. Examine trade-offs between different desired ecosystem services 4. The potential influence of habitat restoration on freshwater and riparian ecosystems 5. Examine indirect effects and cumulative impacts across multiple human actions

15. a b c d e f g 3-dimensional structure of model abcdefg 0 m 50 100 150 550 1200 2400 200 Daily oceanographic fluxes (water, heat, salt) into and out of each box are controlled by a 10 km x 10 km oceanographic model Biogeochemistry Hydrographic submodel Community submodel Habitat Fisheries submodel Climate and oceanography Management submodel Assessment and policy decisions

16. Outputs and Outcomes Output – dynamics of ecosystem indicators under a variety of scenarios Outcome – ability to evaluate a variety of monitoring programs, ecosystem indicators and management strategies in the face of environmental variability/uncertainty/change

17. We use models to address the following: 1. Forecast effects of climate / oceanographic variability (and trends) on population dynamics and productivity, habitat, ecological community 2. Evaluate management strategies on target species, ecosystem indicators (and down the road, socioeconomic indicators) 3. Examine trade-offs between different desired ecosystem services 4. The potential influence of habitat restoration on freshwater and riparian ecosystems 5. Examine indirect effects and cumulative impacts across multiple human actions

18. Ecospace model of N. California Current Blanco Mendocino Juan de Fuca How does MPA size affect the trade-offs between fishery yield and ecosystem well- being? Based on John Field’s NCC Ecopath/Ecosim model Each grid square (75 km 2 ) has a “leaky” Ecosim model and a habitat type Other spatial components: primary production, dispersal, migrations, fishing fleets, hypothetical MPAs 64 food web groups, 7 fleets Columbia River Habitats, based on depth and substrate 20% shelf/slope MPA piscivore biomass total fishery yield Coos Bay area Eureka area Yield:ecosystem trade-off with increasing MPA % coverage

19. We use models to address the following: 1. Forecast effects of climate / oceanographic variability (and trends) on population dynamics and productivity, habitat, ecological community 2. Evaluate management strategies on target species, ecosystem indicators (and down the road, socioeconomic indicators) 3. Examine trade-offs between different desired ecosystem services 4. The potential influence of habitat restoration on freshwater and riparian ecosystems 5. Examine indirect effects and cumulative impacts across multiple human actions

20. Designing and evaluating recovery strategies with uncertain futures

21. Peak flows Low flows Pre-spawning temperature GFDL model Hadley model Battin et al. 2007 Global climate impacts on stream flows in the Snohomish watershed

22. Modeling cumulative effects Egg-to-juv Survival peak flows temperature Juv. Rearing Capacity stream gradient stream width riparian condition estuarine channel form connectivity of nearshore patches Spawning Capacity stream gradient stream width riparian condition Egg Juvenile Adult Pre-spawning Survival temperature low flows Stochastic Variation in Ocean Survival Bartz et al. 2006 Scheuerell et al. 2006

23. Chinook Population Impacts GFDLHadley Battin et al. 2007

25. Summary Diversity of NWFSC modeling efforts reflects diversity of ecosystems we must consider – seas to summits Models address response variables ranging from habitat (e.g. water flow) through single species (salmon, groundfish) to ecosystem indicators. Objectives also vary, but typically are management driven Data availability / quality ranges from incredible to horrible

26. The work has just begun

27. Key contacts Ecosystem simulations and bioenergetic models  Chris Harvey, Isaac Kaplan, Tom Wainwright Multi-species models  Mark Scheuerell, Chris Harvey Climate-related models  Mary Ruckelshaus, Mark Scheuerell, Chris Harvey, Tom Wainwright Habitat and water quality related models  Tim Beechie, Mary Ruckelshaus, Mark Scheuerell

28. Slides not used

29. 100 94 979695 100 9998100 101 Identifying peak-flow impaired sub-basins Impaired: >10% impervious area Functioning: <3% impervious area

30. Multispecies age-structured population models Pacific hake Adult rockfish Juvenile rockfish + + = − − + bycatch in hake fishery predation What is the relative importance of juvenile predation vs. adult bycatch? Adaptation of Lotka-Volterra models Predation and bycatch connect populations Rockfish species is overfished Predation slows rockfish rebuilding modestly BUT, bycatch is major mortality source Effective bycatch control offsets predation (Harvey et al., accepted)

31. Nutrient mass-balance models Scheuerell et al. (2005) CJFAS Historical: P ≈ 80 000 kg

32. Forecasting climate impacts on salmon Atmosphere Smolts Adults Smolts Adults Eggs Parr OceanFreshwater

33. We don’t know At what level of complexity do we get the answer we need?  No single answer