1. Estimating

2. The Nature of the Estimate  Initial estimates will be rough estimates  Estimates will be refined as the project progresses  Everyone needs to be aware of the nature of the initial estimates so they are not surprised when they change COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

3. Estimate What?  Every activity and its tasks will need  Personnel  Resources (physical facilities, technology, etc.)  Time  All of the needs will have a price, so costs will need to be estimated COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

4. Personnel  What kind of jobs are involved? Programmer, analyst, network designer?  What is available and what is the skill level?  Many organizations have skills and activity matrices COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

5. Using Skills Matrices Copyright © 2003 by Robert K. Wysocki, Rudd McGary. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

6. Caution!  Choosing particular individuals for a project because of their (rare) skill set or (outstanding) skill level is a risk – what happens if they leave or are ill?  Will those chosen for a task work well together as a team? (Does company have Myers-Briggs data?) COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

7. Duration  The duration of an activity is the number of business work days needed to complete the activity  The work effort is the number of labor hours required to complete the activity  As labor hours may not represent full-time consecutive hours on the activity, duration and work effort are often different numbers COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

8. Realistic Duration Estimation  Labor hours are not the same as clock hours  Labor is often interrupted – so elapsed time for labor may be 130 % – 200 % of the labor hours  Elapsed time gives good estimates for activity completion dates  Labor hours are used for costing COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

9. When More is Less  Adding more people to an activity does not always get it done faster  Work may not decompose nicely  Increased communication required increases overhead  Groups of four can work well COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

10. When More is Less Communication complexity … COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

11. When More is Less Communication complexity … COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

12. When More is Less Communication complexity … COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

13. When More is Less Communication complexity … COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

14. When More is Less Communication complexity … COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

15. Methodologies for Estimating  Similarity between activities – we just did this  Historical data – accumulated from previous projects  Expert Advice – from those who have done it before  Group techniques (Delphi) COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

16. Group Techniques (Delphi)  Ask for estimates from a panel  Sort, share rationale for lowest and highest estimates  Ask for estimates again  Share results  Final estimates COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

17. Accounting for Variability  Use three estimates  Optimistic – how long it will take if everything goes right  Most likely – how long you expect it to take  Pessimistic – how long you expect it to take if everything went wrong but it got done  Three estimates define a Beta Probability Distribution (used by Microsoft Project) COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

18. Beta – Used in PM Software Copyright © 2003 by Robert K. Wysocki, Rudd McGary. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016

19. Cost Control  See Spreadsheet Example on web site COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2016