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Utilizing High-Resolution WRF Model Output to Improve NWS Forecasts in Complex Terrain Brett E. McDonald, Ph.D. Science and Operations Officer National.

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Presentation on theme: "Utilizing High-Resolution WRF Model Output to Improve NWS Forecasts in Complex Terrain Brett E. McDonald, Ph.D. Science and Operations Officer National."— Presentation transcript:

1 Utilizing High-Resolution WRF Model Output to Improve NWS Forecasts in Complex Terrain Brett E. McDonald, Ph.D. Science and Operations Officer National Weather Service – Riverton, WY WFO 13 th Conference on Mesoscale Processes 17-20 August 2009 Salt Lake City, UT

2 Topography Comparison High Res Topo Local WRF (4 km) NAM (12 km) GFS (40 km)

3 Outline Riverton, WY WFO Local Modeling History & Current Configuration Operational Uses at Riverton, WY WFO Case Studies o Outflow Boundaries from Convection o Diurnal Mountain/Valley Flows o Downslope Windstorms

4 RIW Local Modeling Early 2003 – Early 2006: Workstation Eta ~5-8 km o Very similar to operational Eta settings Early 2006 – Present: Workstation WRF ~4 km o Initial and Boundary conditions: o 12 km NAM – daytime run o ~40 km GFS – nighttime run o 48 hours forecast (fhr06-fhr54) from 00Z & 12Z cycles o 4 km Staggered Horizontal Resolution (301x271) -> ~2.86 km output o 31 Vertical Sigma Levels o Timestep set to 8 seconds to avoid CFL Instabilities o NMM core o No Cumulus Parameterization Scheme -> Explicit Convection o Ferrier Microphysics o Mellor-Yamada-Janjic Boundary Layer Scheme o NMM Land Surface Model

5 RIW Local Modeling Uinta Mountains Wind River Mountains YNP Bighorn Mountains Black Hills Domain Considerations: 1 – Computer Resources (# of dual-processor machines) 2 – Forecast Requirements (upstream area; IFPS/GFE domain coverage; other office support) 3 – Avoid Boundary Instabilities Tetons

6 RIW Local Modeling 12Z15Z18Z21Z00Z18Z (Day2) NAM Available Script begins – download data Model starts (4 dual-processor LINUX machines – post-processing on 1 other) Start pushing output to AWIPS / Intranet (text message sent to forecasters) Model Finishes (~5h 20m) Output ALL processed and posted (follow-up text message) 6 hr NAM forecast = 0 hr WRF analysis 12 hr NAM forecast = 6 hr WRF Boundary Condition 54 hr NAM forecast ~ 48 hr WRF Forecast

7 RIW Local Modeling Wish List: Investigate ARW Core – better precipitation and surface wind forecasts? o Alternate NMM and ARW cores each day (ensemble approach) Enlarge Domain to cover entire CYS and BYZ forecast areas for service backup and share forecasts “Hot Start” LAPS Initialization to provide better start to model Nesting down to 2 km or finer to better represent processes in complex terrain 1 hour Output in AWIPS for first 24 hours

8 Operational Uses RIW Intranet: Java Animation Loops

9 Operational Uses Loop RIW_WRF_NMM Composite Reflectivity 18Z 05 August 2009 - ~45 hours

10 Operational Uses Loop RIW_WRF_NMM 1-hr Total Precipitation 18Z 05 August 2009 - ~45 hours

11 Operational Uses BUFR Sounding Data in BUFKIT906: 69 Locations throughout domain Aviation sites for backup offices (CYS & BYZ) 19 Locations sent to Internet for BYZ & CYS to download

12 Operational Uses AWIPS / D2D: Plan View – 500mb Height 3 hr Precipitation Boundary Layer Wind Surface Temp (image)

13 Operational Uses AWIPS / D2D: Time Height at Cody, WY – Wind Omega Relative Humidity (image) Helpful at TAF Locations in complex terrain

14 Operational Uses AWIPS / D2D: Cross Section– Soda Springs-> RIW->CPR Wind Potential Temp Condensation Pressure Deficit (image) Loop

15 Operational Uses AWIPS / D2D: 3 hr Precipitation Comparison – RIW_WRF_NMMNAM12 EASTNMM4GFS40

16 Operational Uses IFPS/GFE: Smart Initialization to 2.5 km grids MaxT (2m) MaxT Bias Corrected

17 Operational Uses IFPS/GFE: Smart Initialization to 2.5 km grids MaxRH (2m) MinRH (2m) Thermal Belt

18 Operational Uses IFPS/GFE: Smart Initialization to 2.5 km grids Wind (avg: BL,10m ) Nam12 Wind (avg: BL,10m)

19 Case Studies Fremont County, WY Evening of June 30, 2009 (00Z- 03Z July 01, 2009) Thunderstorms NW of Riverton produced 50+ mph outflow KRIW 0.5° Reflectivity Loop

20 Case Studies Fremont County, WY Evening of June 30, 2009 (00Z- 03Z July 01, 2009) Thunderstorms NW of Riverton produced 50+ mph outflow KRIW 0.5° Velocity Loop

21 Case Studies Fremont County, WY Evening of June 30, 2009 (00Z-03Z July 01, 2009) Thunderstorms NW of Riverton produced 50+ mph outflow RIW_WRF_NMM 20090630 18Z BL Wind Comp Refl. 3-hr Pcpn Loop THP 0230Z: WSW 21G40 MPH

22 Case Studies Fremont County, WY Evening of June 30, 2009 (00Z-03Z July 01, 2009) Thunderstorms NW of Riverton produced 50+ mph outflow RIW_WRF_NMM 20090630 18Z BL Wind Comp Refl. 3-hr Pcpn NAM12 BL Wind Loop RIW 0250Z: NNW 20G33 KT PK WND 50 KT

23 Case Studies Jackson Hole KJAC Observations: 091851Z 26004KT SCT055 BKN070 … 092051Z 00000KT SCT070 BKN080 … 092353Z 27004KT SKC … 100251Z 00000KT SKC … 100555Z 35005KT CLR … 100855Z 00000KT CLR … 101155Z 32003KT CLR Jackson Hole KJAC 1800 UTC TAF: KJAC 091726Z 0918/1018 20007KT P6SM SCT015 BKN040 FM092100 27008KT P6SM SCT040 BKN060 FM100300 VRB05KT P6SM FEW060 FM100600 01007KT P6SM SKC

24 Case Studies Jackson Hole August 9, 2009 NAM12 Surface Wind – 12Z cycle Loop

25 Case Studies Jackson Hole August 9, 2009 RIW WRF NMM Surface Wind – 18Z cycle Loop

26 Case Studies Downslope Windstorms near Clark, WY – December 3-4. 2007 Clark’s Fork Canyon – looking West-Southwest from Clark Clark’s Fork Canyon – looking Northeast

27 Case Studies Downslope Windstorms near Clark, WY – December 3-4. 2007 RIW_WRF_NMM 12-hr forecast at 0600 UTC 20071204 Wind (barbs,contour) Windspeed (img) Pot Temp 110 MPH Gust observed at 0500

28 Summary RIW WFO forecasters have found a local high resolution model worthwhile to supplement operational NWS model data o Particularly helpful with surface winds, convective initiation, frontal boundaries, etc. o What does it gain over high resolution WRF runs at NCEP? Need to conduct more research to determine benefits of possible nesting to 1 & 2 km horizontal resolution How can more computing resources be gained? o Recently purchased a dual quad-core server…

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