1. Developing an Integrated Ecosystem Research Program for the Gulf of Maine gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program Andrew J. Allyn, Aly McKnight, Linda Welch, Iain J. Stenhouse Kirk Rogers

2. gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program The catalyst Jordan Chalfant

3. gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program The Research Program Mission To understand the complex inter-relationships among living communities within the Gulf of Maine ecosystem and the physical marine environment, as well as how these relationships may respond to climate change and other large-scale disturbances. Defining Program Characteristics 1.Investigations across key temporal, spatial and trophic scales 2.Hypothesis-driven projects 3. Individual projects vertically linked into a cohesive research program

4. gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program Responding to potential ecosystem-scale perturbations Offshore wind potential Mass GIS/TrueWind Solutions LLC

5. gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program Why an integrated ecosystem research program? “Stewardship of the Ocean, Our Coasts, and the Great Lakes” Protect, maintain and restore ecosystems through “integrated, comprehensive, ecosystem-based, flexible and proactive approaches” NOAA Next-Generation Strategic Plan Long-term goal to maintain fisheries, habitats and biodiversity within “healthy and productive ecosystems” Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment Action plan 2007-2012 Goal 1 Outcome 1.3- Habitat Conservation Exchange of information on observed and predicted effects of climate change, among decision-makers about ecosystem-based approaches to managing coastal and ocean habitats” Habitat restoration and conservation plan “Conduct science, planning, and communication required for Regional Ocean Management, Marine Spatial Planning, and Ecosystem-Based Management”

6. gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program An “adaptive management” framework for project design, implementation and execution Marine Mammals Humans Fish Seabirds Forage Species Benthos NPZ Moorings Atmosphere + Ocean Climate Scenarios M. Sigler and R. Harvey 2010

7. gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program Our Progress 2011 April Hypothesis Development Workshop Seven themes 1.Remote versus Local Drivers – Climate change, currents, nutrients 2.Ocean Acidification – pH conditions, carbonate chemistry 3.Bottom-up Controls – Timing, duration and intensity of phyto blooms 4.Benthic Drivers – Predator-prey interactions, food, habitat 5.Spatial Constraints – Local physical processes, prey, predators 6.Fisheries Management – Management decisions, ecosystem responses 7.Socioeconomics – Ecosystem functions, values, and coastal infrastructure

8. gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program Spatial constraints theme hypotheses 1.Weather, bottom topography, and ocean conditions influencing circulation patterns on multiple scales affect the distribution, frequency, density and persistence of prey, and thus the distributions and foraging success of predators. a.Favorable feeding environments are associated with physical processes (e.g., internal waves, eddies, fronts) that aggregate prey. b.The processes that dominate the physics at small scales tend to be recurrent or stable in the Gulf of Maine; potential feeding areas associated with these features turn on and off depending on the abundance and supply of prey. c.Central-place foragers, such as marine birds nesting on an island, will change their diet or foraging location to improve fitness. d.Variability in food abundance, condition and accessibility (e.g. depth) determines seabird breeding success and colony suitability; persistent changes can lead to local extirpation (or colony abandonment).

9. Central place foragers: Gulf of Maine seabirds gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program USFWS

10. gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program Quality prey and seabird productivity Species20072008200920102011 Atlantic Herring 4958781210 Butterfish -0.89654 Invertebrates -24--470.2 Sandlance 19---2 Petit Manan Island Arctic Tern bill load observations (Percent of total observations reported) 20072008200920102011 0.450.800.710.210.22 Petit Manan Arctic Tern productivity (Mean chicks fledged per nest) Jordan Chalfant

11. gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program The Atlantic Herring Gulf of Maine Research institute  Schooling, coastal pelagic species  Juveniles aggregate in large schools in the spring in coastal waters, generally move offshore during the summer and fall  Adults return to nearshore waters to spawn  ~ 18% of the biomass occurs in inshore waters * (currently being revisited)

12. gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program The Gulf of Maine Coastal Zone Managed seabird colony Gulf of Maine coastal waters (~ 2m to 100m) Managed seabird colony Gulf of Maine coastal waters (~ 2m to 100m) Dieter Craasmann Kirk Rogers Jason Stockwell Dann Blackwood USFWS Karl Embleton Local drivers: Weather, eddies, tides, currents Basin scale circulation patterns: Labrador Current, Gulf Stream Current

13. Relationships to existing projects gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment http://na.nefsc.noaa.gov/ecosystem.html http://nefsc.noaa.gov/esb/rsr/sbts/sbts_2010/large_file.pdf http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/HydroAtlas A. Pershing et al. 2009. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 378: 227-243 H. Xue et al. 2008. Ecol Model 210 (1-2): 193-211

14. gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program Biological conservation: Managing human use patterns Changes in fisheries management influence the structure and function of the ecosystem by altering the distribution and/or abundance of fish stocks. Changes in physical and biological conditions and resource management decisions will interact to affect coastal communities by altering ecosystem functions, ecosystem service values, and coastal infrastructure. Kirk Rogers

15. Future Plans January 23 rd and 24 th Collaborators Meeting (Portland, ME) to review hypotheses and draft implementation plan gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program Kirk Rogers

16. Returning to the beginning Mission To understand the complex inter-relationships among living communities within the Gulf of Maine ecosystem and the physical marine environment, as well as how these relationships may respond to climate change and other large-scale disturbances. gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program Kirk Rogers

17. gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program Thank you! Andrew Allyn, andrew.allyn@gmail.com, (207) 671-8483 The Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program www.gomierp.org Jordan Chalfant