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HYMN: Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide: Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the biosphere GOCE-CT-2006-037048 TM4 model evaluations 2003-2004.

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Presentation on theme: "HYMN: Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide: Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the biosphere GOCE-CT-2006-037048 TM4 model evaluations 2003-2004."— Presentation transcript:

1 HYMN: Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide: Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the biosphere GOCE-CT-2006-037048 TM4 model evaluations 2003-2004 and TM5 decadal runs 1989-2008 Michiel van Weele HYMN meeting, Bremen 6-7 April 2009

2 Evaluation of emissions and concentration distributions using in-situ and satellite observations HYMN modelling activities I. Focus on the year 2004 (2003-2005) II. Decadal runs (1989-2008) Anthropogenic emissions bottom-up inventories CO, NOx etc A posteriori methane emission distributions from inverse modelling Net natural fluxes methane Global dynamical vegetation modelling (LPJ) Chemical-transport model simulations BQT: Bousquet a posteriori emissions and natural fluxes LPJ: Natural fluxes from LPJ replacing Bousquet natural fluxes Evaluations: Latitudinal distribution Seasonal cycle Station time series Comparisons against SCIAMACHY Comparisons against FTIR tropospheric and total column observations

3 Use of CTMs to better constrain the global methane budget? Chemistry-transport modelling relates inventories and calculated emission distributions to surface concentration observations E.g. The inter-hemispheric CH 4 gradient allows about ~1/3 of CH4 emissions between 30-90N and ~2/3 in the Tropics(+ Southern Hemisphere) CTM modelling is needed to interpret column VMR satellite observations and to relate the satellite data to surface emissions (regional distribution, seasonality)

4 Effect of a latitudinal shift in CH4 emissions on the Inter Hemispheric Gradient Shifting 5% (or 26 Tg CH4) from tropics to northern hemisphere: Increases the Inter-Hemispheric Gradient (IHG) from 120 to 138 ppb (after 1 year of simulation, new SH steady state not yet reached) Observed IHG (2004): 129 ppb (using NOAA/GMD stations Alert and South Pole) Effects on CH4 lifetime are negligible solid line Tropics58% NH30% Dotted line Tropics53% NH35% Plus signs NOAA/GMD monthly means for Alert and South Pole

5 Column VMR and Surface VMR Satellite CH4 observations relate to column-averaged concentration distributions Anthropogenic emissions + natural fluxes relate to surface concentration distributions All figures show August 2004

6 Methane lifetime TM4; spatial resolution: (lon x lat) 3 x2 degrees; 34 layers in vertical; Years 2003-2004 CH4 budget CH4 Emissions (Bousquet a-posteriori) 534 Tg/a CH4 burden4832 Tg Loss via tropospheric OH 498 Tg/a Loss in stratosphere 24 Tg/a CH4 soil sink 25 Tg/a CH4 trend -13 Tg/a CH4 lifetime 4832 / 547 8.8 yrs OH budget Relative contributions OH loss: OH + CO40%OH + H2 5% OH + CH416%OH + HO2 5% OH + ROOH15%OH + Isoprene 4% OH + O3 5%OH + H2O2 4% OH + HCHO 5%OH + Other 1% Relative contributions OH production: O3 + hv~50%OH recycling (eg NOx)~40%peroxides~10%  Feedbacks on CH4 lifetime dominated by changes in CO (Half of CO is produced from CH4 and NMHC oxidation)  CH4 lifetime changes related to CO and NOx (modulated by VOCs)

7 Bottom-up inventories Annual mean for 2004 (in Gg/cell/ month) Anthropogenic CH4 emissions Including rice paddies Excluding biomass burning

8 Bousquet a posteriori year 2004 Monthly mean surface methane concentrations near Sumatra

9 Natural methane flux spatial distribution (LPJ) Sum of wetlands (inundated areas), wet soils, northern peatlands and soil consumption (flux < 0 ) August 2004

10 Natural methane flux spatial distribution (LPJ) Feb – Apr – Aug – Nov 2004

11 Seasonal variation in natural methane fluxes (LPJ) BlackTotal net flux RedWet SoilsPurpleNorthern Peatlands BlueWetlandsGreenSoil Sink Tropical 30 – 90 N

12 LPJ interannual variability/trend in natural methane fluxes

13 Evaluation against surface observations

14 TM4 evaluation at 3 tropical sites: Assekrem(23N), Sumatra(Eq), Mt Kenya (Eq) Red: Observations Blue: BQT Green: LPJ Large signs: monthly means

15 Evaluation against SCIAMACHY observations

16 TM4 model validation per region with SCIAMACHY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2021 22 23

17 Model validation per region with SCIAMACHY AmericasAfricaEurasia Indo Aus AtlanticPacific-IndianPolar Regional mean column mixing ratio’s (in ppbv) for year 2004 SCIA = SCIAMACHY observations TM4BQT = a posteriori emission distribution Philippe TM4LPJ = idem, but with LPJ CH4 fluxes replacing wetlands, rice, and soil sink 1-45-67-1112-1314-1617-1819-23

18 Absolute differences in regional mean column mixing ratios (in ppbv) SCIA = SCIAMACHY observations TM4BQT = a posteriori emission distribution TM4LPJ = idem, but with LPJ CH4 emissions replacing wetlands+rice AmericasAfricaEurasia Indo Aus AtlanticPacific-IndianPolar 1-45-67-1112-1314-1617-1819-23

19 Comparison for 13 land regions between TM4 / SCIA differences and Lisa’s surface station optimizations per region Aug 2004

20 Comparison for 13 land regions between TM4 / SCIA differences and Lisa’s surface station optimizations per region Year 2004

21 TM5 ‘B07’ post-prior CH 4 column mixing ratio increments (ppmv) TM5 ‘BQT’ post-prior CH 4 column mixing ratio increments (ppmv) Aug 2004

22 TM5 ‘B07’ post-prior CH 4 column mixing ratio increments (ppmv) TM5 ‘BQT’ post-prior CH 4 column mixing ratio increments (ppmv) Jun 2004

23 Long runs (AC en C slides)

24 TM5 Preliminary CH4 budget analysis (year 2000) Prescribed (observed) zonal-mean mixing ratios at the surface Above 50 (tropical)/90 hPa (extra-tropical) nudging to HALOE-CLAES climatology Grooß and Russell III, Technical note: A stratospheric climatology for O3, H2O, CH4, NOx,HCl and HF derived from HALOE measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2797–2807, 2005 CH4 + OH (troposphere)406 Tg/a <= 15% lower than TM4 (under investigation....) CH4 + OH (lower stratosphere) 20 Tg/a Stratospheric nudging 34 Tg/amore strat. loss (54 Tg) Burden change -12 Tg/a Net CH4 emission – soil sink448 Tg/a

25 Next months Further evaluations sensitivity runs against observations (SCIA, FTIR, surface) TM4 run with a-posterior LPJ distribution Lisa? Continuation of TM5 decadal runs 1989-1999 and 1999-2008 ~ 3 days per simulation year => first set ready in May Multi-annual CH 4 budget / lifetime analysis based on TM5 “separate concentration changes caused by lifetime change from concentration changes caused by emission changes” Analysis of meteorology 1989-2008 affecting interannual OH (total ozone, temperature, humidity, solar radiation, clouds, albedo)

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