Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published bySheila Shepherd Modified over 8 years ago
1
1 Rockies Outlook For Internal Use Only April 12, 2001
2
2 To Chicago Western U.S. Gas Grid Northern Border Kern PGT Northwest El Paso Trailblazer CIG KN NGPL = Glenrock = Cheyenne/Rockport = OPAL CIG & WIC
3
3 Rockies Summary The Rockies take-away pipes are currently running at capacity Some relief will be experienced this winter as the Denver/Salt Lake City winter demand comes on. Glenrock is experiencing the greatest gas-on-gas competition, as the current bottleneck for the increasing Powder River Basin production. The WIC – Medicine Bow expansion, expected late this year, will move some of the constrained Powder River gas to Cheyenne, which is already constrained. Kern’s emergency expansion of 135 MMcfd (late summer 2001) should easily be filled by gas out of OPAL and other western Rockies supply points. Cheyenne will receive minimal relief from the 50 MMcfd CIG expansion in August 2001. The Trailblazer expansion (August 2002) will provide 175 MMcfd of incremental capacity from Cheyenne to the Mid-Continent. However, Powder River Basin production is expected to easily fill this expansion, providing only moderate price relief as gas-on-gas competition remains. Significant price relief is not expected until 2003, when Kern’s full 900 MMcfd expansion is expected to come on-line. It should be noted that Rockies gas that has traditionally flowed east will begin to flow west on CIG, WIC, or a new project to fill this expansion.
4
4 Rocky Mountain Market Dynamics CERA forecasts indicate that the recent ramp-up in Powder, Wind, and Green River Basin supply will continue for the next few years Take-away lines are at capacity and planned expansions and market growth are not sufficient to meet the growing Rockies supply Rockies’ basis and the availability of firm markets are expected to continue to weaken due to “gas on gas” competition until the Kern expansion comes in during 2003 Four pipeline expansions/projects are expected in the next four to five years CERA forecasts incremental Rockies supply to significantly exceed demand/take-away capacity CIG expansion 50 MMcfd in October 2001 Kern River expansions 135 MMcfd in August 2001 900 MMcfd in May 2003 Trailblazer expansion 175 MMcfd in August 2002 New Rockies’ pipeline project (Bison, Coastal Connection, or Frontier) 500 MMcfd in 2005 (Doubtful) Note: This chart assumes excess eastern supply can access the Kern expansion
5
5 Eastern Supply vs. Western Capacity After the 900 MMcfd Kern expansion in 2003, the Rockies will be in a situation where the take-away capacity to the west exceeds western Rockies production by 350-500 MMcfd. At the same time, forecasts indicate approximately 500 MMcfd of eastern Rockies supply will be shut-in, lacking eastern take-away outlets. In the absence of east-to-west flow on the CIG mainline or a new east-to-west project, the CIG and NWPL Rocky Mountain indexes would be expected to widen relative to one another. However, expectations are that CIG or a new project will accommodate the need to transport eastern Rockies supply to the 2003 Kern expansion capacity. Rough build-economics estimates indicate that a rate of $0.25-0.30 with 2-5% fuel could be expected for the haul from Cheyenne to Kern. Kern Northwest Trailblazer CIG KN Eastern Rockies - 2003: 500 MMcfd of excess supply Eastern Rockies - 2003: 500 MMcfd of excess supply Western Rockies - 2003: 350 - 500 MMcfd of excess take-away capacity Western Rockies - 2003: 350 - 500 MMcfd of excess take-away capacity CIG WIC/Overthrust
6
6 Incremental East/West Production vs. Take-Away Capacity
7
7 NWPL, CIG Basis
Similar presentations
© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.