1. Scenario simulation – how computer modelling software could help you Candy Jeffries National Improvement Lead for Heart Failure

2. What is Scenario Generator? Computer simulation software designed specifically for use within the NHS by Simul8 and the Institute for Innovation and Improvement. Models how services of whole healthcare system could support care pathways Tests/compares responses to change in population, health, technology, practice and models of care Shows impact of throughput, cost and staffing Helps commissioners to find the most cost effective pathway

3. Limitations of Using Simulations Won’t tell you the answer, but help ask better questions Only as good as data put in, but help make sense of that data All models are wrong, but some are useful

4. Scenario Generator – How does it work? Pathways Data Populations Costs Prevalence Capacity Workforce Demo

5. As-Is Pathway

6. To-be Pathway

7. Heart Failure Model Year 1 Step Cost Year 2 Step Cost Year 3 Step Cost Year 4 Step Cost Year 5 Step Cost As Is Model£278,327£288,172£295,195£304,966£312,811 BNP Model - scenario 1 (stable/unstable ratio 90:10)£150,878£153,508£158,214£163,596£168,680 BNP Model - scenario 2 (stable/unstable ratio 80:20)£171,024£176,251£180,317£186,763£190,481 BNP Model - scenario 3 (stable/unstable ratio 70:30)£192,138£196,539£202,772£209,890£215,040 Savings Potential Scenario 1 - Full Year-£127,449-£134,664-£136,981 - £141,371-£144,131 Savings Potential Scenario 2 - Full Year-£107,302-£111,920-£114,878 - £118,204-£122,330 Savings Potential Scenario 3 - Full Year-£86,189-£91,633-£92,423-£95,076-£97,772

8. In Conclusion Process simulation can inform commissioning by showing impact of different pathways and changes to them, without needing costly pilot projects Allows commissioners and clinicians to choose the most effective pathway from both a clinical and a financial viewpoint. Can be modified to fit almost every situation