1. Chapter 9: Nominations, Elections and Campaigns

2. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 2 The Evolution of Campaigning Election campaign: an organized effort to persuade voters to choose one candidate over others competing for the same office Have evolved from being party-centered to candidate-centered

3. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 3 Nominations Most distinguishing feature of U.S. nomination process: involves an election by party voters Nomination for Congress and State Offices –Primary Election: a preliminary election conducted within a political party to select candidates who will run for public office in a subsequent election.

4. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 4 Nominations Nomination for Congress and State Offices –Types of Primary Elections: Closed primary: voters must declare their party affiliation to vote on that party’s potential nominees Open primary: voters need not declare their party affiliation and can choose one party’s primary ballot to take into the voting booth –Modified closed primary: allows individual state parties decide whether to permit independents to vote in their primaries and for which office Modified open primary: entitles independent voters to vote in a party’s primary –Primaries are peculiar to the U.S.

5. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 5 Nominations Nomination for President –Until the 1960s, delegates chose their party’s nominee at the national convention –Since 1972, national conventions have simply ratified the results of the primaries and caucuses. –

6. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 6 Nominations Selecting Convention Delegates –Most important distinction is between presidential primary and local caucus Presidential primary: a special primary election used to select delegates to attend the party’s national convention, which in turn nominates the presidential candidate Caucus/convention: a method used to select delegates to attend a party’s national convention; generally, a local meeting selects delegates for a county-level meeting, which in turn selects delegates for a higher-level meeting; process culminates in a state convention that actually selects the national convention delegates

7. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 7 Nominations Selecting Convention Delegates –Presidential primaries now generate 80% of convention delegates –Conventions merely ratify decision made in the states –Front-loading: states’ practice of moving delegate selection primaries and caucuses earlier in the calendar year to gain media and candidate attention

8. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 8 Elections General election: a national election held by law in November of every even-numbered year –All seats in the House of Representatives –One-third of the seats in the Senate –Numerous state and local offices

9. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 9 Elections Presidential Elections and the Electoral College –The Electoral College: Structure 535 + 3 (for DC) Need 270 votes to win If no candidate receives a majority, election goes to the House of Representatives Apportionment of votes changes after 2010 census

10. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 10 Elections Presidential Elections and the Electoral College –The Electoral College: Abolish It? Must distinguish between electoral “college” and electoral “system” Electoral college is the set of individuals empowered to cast state’s electoral votes –Elected directly –May be “faithless” –May be good reason to oppose need for body of electors to translate the decision of voters

11. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 11 Elections Presidential Elections and the Electoral College –The Electoral College: Abolish It? The electoral “system” –Candidate can win a plurality of the vote but still not win the presidency –From 1888-2000, the electoral college magnified the margin of victory –2000 election showed that the candidate could win the popular vote and still lose the federal election

12. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 12 Elections Presidential Elections and the Electoral College –The Electoral College: Abolish It? Reasons to support the electoral system –Gives small states more weight in the vote –Encourages candidates to campaign on foot and in rural areas –If a nationwide recount were necessary, the problems of Florida would be multiplied by 50

13. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 13 Elections The Popular Vote and the Electoral Vote –Ballots list candidates for presidency, then national offices, then state and local offices Straight ticket: in voting, a single party’s candidates for all the offices Split ticket: in voting, candidates from different parties for different offices Split ticket voting results in divided government

14. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 14 How America Votes

15. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 15 Campaigns The Political Context –Most important structural factors Incumbent or Challenger? Characteristics of the State or District –Significant political issues may also play a role and negate other advantages

16. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 16 Campaigns Strategies and Tactics –Strategy: the broad approach used to persuade citizens to vote for the candidate –Tactics: the content of the messages and the way they are delivered

17. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 17 Campaigns Strategies and Tactics –Basic Strategies: Party-centered strategy: relies heavily on voters’ partisan identification and the party’s organization Issue-oriented strategy: seeks support from groups that feel strongly about various policies Image-oriented strategy: depends on the candidate’s perceived personal qualities

18. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 18 Campaigns Strategies and Tactics –Making the News News coverage is free News coverage seems objective to the audience

19. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 19 Campaigns Strategies and Tactics –Advertising the Candidate Objectives of paid advertising –First objective: name recognition –Second objective: promotion of candidate virtues –Negative objective: attack the opponent or play on emotions Political ads contain more substantive information than many people believe Media may report controversial ads as news Findings about impact of negative ads is ambiguous

20. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 20 Campaigns Strategies and Tactics –Using the Internet Candidates like the Internet because it is fast, easy to use, and cheap Internet use by voters has steadily increased

21. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 21 Explaining Voting Choice Party Identification –The most important long-term factor in voting choice –Winning presidential candidate wins most of his party identifiers, some defectors from the other party, and most of the independents (usually)

22. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 22 Effects of Party Identification and the Vote, 2004

23. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 23 Population Shifts and Political Gains and Losses

24. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 24 Explaining Voting Choice Issues and Politics –Challengers point out problems and promise to solve them –Incumbents campaign on their accomplishments

25. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 25 Explaining Voting Choice Candidate Attributes –Especially important when voters lack information about a candidate’s past behavior and policy stands –Voters may fall back on their beliefs about gender, race and religion in making political judgments

26. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 26 Explaining Voting Choice Evaluating the Vote Choice –For most presidential voters, issues are less important than either party identification or the candidate’s image –Relationship between voters’ positions on issues and their party identification is clearer and more consistent today

27. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 27 Explaining Voting Choice Campaign Effects –The Television Campaign “Sound bites” make TV news unreliable for candidate messages Campaigns are principally fought through television advertising

28. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.9 | 28 Explaining Voting Choice The Presidential Debates –A regular campaign feature since 1976 –Candidates negotiate strict conditions