1. Multi-scale water management and modeling for Jordan David E. Rosenberg Utah State University david.rosenberg@usu.edu CEE Seminar at Stanford University May 19, 2008

2. 2 Acknowledgements In Jordan Samer Talozi, Jordan Univ. of Science and Technology Hani Abu Qdais, German-Jordan University Rania Abdul-Khaleq, MWI Suzan Taha, MWI Khair Khadidi, MWI Chris Decker, LEMA Roger Griffin, LEMA 14 water managers Tarek Tarawneh, IdRC Hazim El-Nasser, OSD Ya’koob Al-Qaisia, Sanitary Ware & Pipes 36 families 40 water tradesmen Mona Grieser, AED Anwar El-Halah, RSCN Dawoud Al-Said, ARD In the U.S. U.S. National Science Foundation Frank Fisher, MIT Annette Huber-Lee, IFPRI Jay Lund, U.C. Davis Richard Howitt, U.C. Davis Mimi Jenkins, U.C. Davis

3. 3 Outline Systems modeling Jordan’s water problems Modeling with uncertainty –Households –Water utility (Amman) –National (Jordan) Contributions Top: Tanker truck refilling rooftop tank Middle: New diversion works near the Dead Sea Bottom: Drying mudflat at Burqa, eastern Jordan

4. 4 Systems Modeling Themes Infrastructure at multiple scales Integrating diverse options Long- vs. short-term actions Multiple water qualities Uncertainties Mix engineering, economics, and operations research Background: Bathroom with bathtub, floor drain, squat toilet, squeegee, faucet, and bucket for flushing

5. 5 Integrated Modeling Approach At each scale: 1.Identify available options 2.Characterize each option 3.Describe interdependencies 4.Quantify shortage events 5.Optimize –Stochastic programming with recourse 6.Reapply at larger scales Household Water Utility (City) Region (Nation)

6. 6 Jordan Israel / Palestine Amman Ma’an Aqaba Zarka Irbid 0 50 100 km 100 mm/yr 500 900 Jordan Water Overview 5+ mill. people 1,000 Mm 3 /yr consumption 850 Mm 3 /yr supplies Severe groundwater overdraft Red Sea SAUDI ARABIA EGYPT IRAN PAL.

7. 7 Insufficient supplies Leaky distribution systems Water safety concerns Little water conservation experience Rapid population growth Top: “Biader Water” sells RO filtered water in 20-liter jugs Left: Leaky irrigation system pipe Key problems

8. 8 Modeling & Management for Households

9. 9 Identified 39 potential actions

10. 10 Characterize action costs and effectiveness Above: Drip irrigation store

11. 11 Stochastic optimization with recourse Objective: Minimize expected annual costs 1 st stage decisions: Long-term actions (L i ) Stochastic events: Public water availability (e) 2 nd stage decisions: Short-term actions (S je ) Subject to: –Mass balance; Storage capacity; Block pricing –Upper limits on actions –Interdependencies –Meet water requirements in each event Monte-Carlo samples: parameter variability among households 1 st Stage Event 2 nd Stage = Decision = State where stochastic information acquired

12. 12 Calibrate to household piped water use 500 Monte-Carlo simulated households Adjust occupancy parameter (vacant residences)

13. 13 Distributions of water savings for conservation actions in Amman (error bars represent 10 th and 90 th percentiles)

14. 14 Demand response before and after household conservation

15. 15 Willingness-to-pay to avoid network rationing

16. 16 Household-level contributions 1.Modeling integrates source, availability, quality, storage, costs, conservation, and user behaviors. 2.Empirically estimates water use in Amman, Jordan. 3.Simultaneous output of:  Conservation technology adoption  Water use response  Household willingness-to-pay 4.Target conservation to select customers. Above: Store selling rooftop water tanks

17. Modeling and Management for Amman, Jordan

18. 18 Amman water system 2.2+ million residents 360,000+ connections 133 Mcm/yr supply 2,700 km 2 service area 5,100 km of mains 1,700+ employees Government owned Contract operator Right: Component analysis for 2005

19. 23 potential city-level actions

20. 20 Data collection Meetings with 20 managers –Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI) –Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ) –Jordan Valley Authority (JVA) –Amman contract operator (LEMA) –U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) –Private consultants Notes, e-files, paper and web reports Prior household results Top: MWI offices in Amman Right: WAJ report on wastewater treatment operations in 2004 Left: Water-meter manifold for an apartment building

21. 21 Including city-level uncertainties Stochastic water shortages –Future demands (5 experts) –Surface water availability (65 years of runoff) –Groundwater (fixed) Uncertain parameters –Average parameter values –Parameter value scenarios (“Robust”) –Best and worst cases (“B/W”) –Interacting best and worst cases (“Grey-number”) Expected shortage events in 2020

22. Implementation levels and costs for 2020

23. 23 Short- term actions B = Buy agricultural water C = Cloud seeding RT = Rent tanker trucks D = Disconnect illegal connections RL = Reduce leak fix time RO = Restrict outdoor water use R1 = Normal rationing R2 = Severe rationing

24. 24 City-scale study contributions Methodological Modeling integrates multiple supply and conservation options with explicit uncertainties. Consistent results with different approaches to handle parameter uncertainties. Project-specific Conservation plays growing role over time. Delayed need for mega-supply projects like pumping the Disi Aquifer. Red-Dead Canal not needed.

25. Modeling and Management for all of Jordan Background: Agricultural production near the Dead Sea

26. 26 Potential national actions Supplies –Seawater desalination –Wastewater reuse –Source use –Inter-district transfers –Sector reallocations –Infrastructure expansions Conservation –Leak reduction –Limit import of water- wasting appliances –Targeted retrofits with water-efficient appliances Top: Alternatives to bananas? Middle: King Abdullah Canal Bottom: Zara-Ma’een pipes near the Dead Sea

27. 27 National-level model Middle East Water Project (MIT Water Allocation System) –Urban, Industrial, and Agricultural demands in 12 governorates –Single-year, deterministic optimization –Maximize net benefits –Mass balance, environmental, pricing, wastewater reuse, and social policy constraints (Adapted from Fisher et al., 2005) Quantity Price Demand Curve Cost Curve Net benefit

28. 28 Quantity Price q * st p * st Shifted Demand Curve q * lt p * lt Cost Savings National-level model extensions Water use efficiency (non-price demand shift) Variable water availability Infrastructure expansions and conservation program developments Original Demand Curve

29. 29 New national level decision support system Inputs Regional layout Demands Supplies Shared Resources Infrastructure Policies User Interface (Visual Basic) Graphical Results Display Optimization Engine (GAMS) Database (MS Access) Outputs Net benefits Prices paid Quantities used Shadow value of constrained infrastructure Benefits of cooperation

30. 30 Shadow values in districts Water conservation No conservation

31. 31 Overall net benefits for 2020

32. 32 Nationwide contributions Methodological Include conservation decisions in hydro-economic model Infrastructure expansions with variable water availability Project-specific Conservation generates regional economic benefits Infrastructure expansions, leak reduction, and conservation forestall desalination Disi carrier should include branch to Karak

33. 33 Overall Conclusions Modeling can integrate source, reliability, conservation, quality, costs, and explicit uncertainties. Empirically estimate water use in Amman, Jordan. Multiple scales to improve water availability and management. Urban water conservation is very promising. Target conservation to customers who will save the most water and money. Improving availability will require significant investments.

34. 34 Publications Rosenberg, Howitt, and Lund (in press) Water Resources Research. Water management with water conservation, infrastructure expansions, and source variability in Jordan.” Rosenberg (in press) Water Policy. “Integrated water resources management and modeling at multiple spatial scales in Jordan.” Rosenberg and Lund (in press) Water Resources Management. Modeling integrated decisions for a municipal water system with recourse and uncertainties.” Rosenberg et al (in press) Water International. “Intermittent water supplies: challenges and opportunities for residential water users in Jordan.” Rosenberg et al (2007) Water Resources Research. “Modeling integrated water user decisions in intermittent supply systems.” Rosenberg (2007) ASCE-JWRPM. “Probabilistic estimation of water conservation effectiveness.”

35. 35 Questions?? David E. Rosenberg david.rosenberg@usu.edu

36. 36 Complementary scales for action