1. 1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 11, 2016 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

2. 2 Outline Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3. 3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal over many parts of India, across the southern and east Asia monsoon region, particularly over Indonesia, Papa New Guinea, Malaysia, Laos, Vietnam, and Thailand consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions. Australia is also relatively dry. However, parts of southeastern India, Sri Lanka, and large parts of southeastern China have received above normal rainfall amounts. The NorthEast winter monsoon season (Oct-Dec) over southern India, and the tropical cyclone season impacting the same region is over. However, the larger winter monsoon (Dec-Feb) impacting southeast Asia is underway, and overall, the rainfall over the region has been weak due to the ongoing strong El Nino in the central and eastern tropical Pacific ocean.

4. 4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall was at near normal levels over much of the region except for below normal over eastern Indonesia and Papa New Guinea. For this period, southeastern China, northern Philippines, parts of Sumatra, Borneo and northern Australia had received above normal rainfall.

5. 5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, rainfall over the entire region was generally at or slightly below normal levels, except over southeastern China, where it was above normal. Northern Australia and the island of New Guinea received much below rainfall.

6. 6 Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.

7. 7 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

8. 8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9. 9 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

10. 10 Summary For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal over many parts of India, across the southern and east Asia monsoon region, particularly over Indonesia, Papa New Guinea, Malaysia, Laos, Vietnam, and Thailand consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions. Australia is also relatively dry. However, parts of southeastern India, Sri Lanka, and large parts of southeastern China have received above normal rainfall amounts. The Northeast winter monsoon season (Oct-Dec) over southern India, and the tropical cyclone season impacting the same region is over. However, the larger winter monsoon (Dec-Feb) impacting southeast Asia is underway, and overall, the rainfall over the region has been weak due to the ongoing strong El Nino in the central and eastern tropical Pacific ocean. For the past 30 days, rainfall was at near normal levels over much of the region except for below normal over eastern Indonesia and Papa New Guinea. For this period, southeastern China, northern Philippines, parts of Sumatra, Borneo and northern Australia had received above normal rainfall. In this past week, rainfall over the entire region was generally at or slightly below normal levels, except over southeastern China, where it was above normal. Northern Australia and the island of New Guinea received much below rainfall. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting generally below normal for the whole region, except for random regions of above normal rainfall here and there.

11. 11 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

12. 12 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

13. 13 Climatology