1. The Shifting Sands of the PC Platform Kim Pallister, Graphics Planning, Intel Corporation

2. Silicon

3. Uncertain Future

4. Predicting the future Assume things don’t change – Problem: They do Look at how things change and project forward – Problem: Outside forces, changing rules

5. Expectations can change WW PC TAM Projections Source: Gartner March ’09 Update March ‘10 Update Mu *Not including netbooks

6. Predicting the future Assume things don’t change – Problem: They do Look at how things change and project forward – Problem: Outside forces, changing rules Look at factors that change the rules

7. Factors affecting the industry Parallelism Power Proliferation of usages Priorities for graphics

8. Processor evolution Performance “for free” Mhz Out of order execution Parallelism Thread level Instruction level Data-level Power

9. Can either drive performance with more power, or focus on efficiency Performance  Performance/$  Performance/watt True across the spectrum of uses – Low-end: battery life, form factors – High-end: Operating costs, TCO

10. Proliferation of usages Analog Devices Digital Devices Multi-function digital devices

11. Proliferation of PCs One computer for many people One computer per home One computer per person >1 computer per person

12. Implications of usage proliferation Users expect their devices to do everything And expect their content to run everywhere – We already see this with music, ebooks Users will expect a rich level of quality and interactivity across all platforms

13. Shift to mobile increases focus on power Source: Jon Peddie Research – Market Watch Q2’10

14. And shift the mix of graphics in PCs Left graph – normalized histogram of Gfx card prices 2006 right graph is similar for Q2’10, but note this is ATI only, Source: Mercury Research – Q2’10

15. Priorities for Graphics Mainstream applications using 3D hardware – 1993-2005, Games – 2005-2010, Games + Windows shell – 2010-2011+, Games, Windows Shell, Internet exlorer, Google Chrome, Mozilla Firefox, Adobe Flash, Windows Live applications, Adobe Photoshop… Performance and quality will improve, but games are no longer the only customer

16. So what does it mean for Game Developers When planning products, take into account changes in the market (not just games market) User expectations of what device can run their game, and where, and how well, will be high – Will you be their ‘killer app’? Aim “sweet spot” for graphics design point that will maximize revenue Think about where you invest to differentiate – Graphics features vs world fidelity, or – Graphics features vs cross-device services/functions

17. Thank you! Special thanks: Meggan Scavio & GDC team Microsoft’s Chas Boyd