2. TOWARDS PRE-EARTHQUAKE PLANNING FOR POST-EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY (PEPPER) EXAMPLES: TOKAI, JAPAN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

3. 2015: EARTHQUAKES ARE A GLOBAL NATURAL HAZARD FLOODS SEVERE WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES DROUGHTS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS ETC.

4. 2015: IT IS PAST TIME TO SPEED UP THE LONG-TERM RECOVERY PROCESS FOR EARTHQUAKES (AND TSUNAMIS)

5. TECTONIC DEFORMATION EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING FAULT RUPTURE FOUNDATION FAILURE SITE AMPLIFICATION LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDESAFTERSHOCKSSEICHE DAMAGE/LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/LOSS

6. INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKES SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

7. HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES TSUNAMIS INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

8. 10 MILLION EARTHQUAKES Only about 110 of the 10 million earthquakes of all sizes that occur somewhere in the world each year are large enough and close enough to a community to cause a disaster, - - -

9. DILEMMAS - - - which creates a multitude of local and regional dilemmas about what to do, both before and after the quake, to shorten the recovery process.

10. THE SOLUTION: PRE-EARTHQUAKE PLANNING FOR POST-EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY (PEPPER)

11. EXAMPLE: TOKAI, JAPAN

12. WHERE WILL THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IN JAPAN OCCUR? A difficult question, but --- It is the one that was being asked before the March 11, 2011 TOHOKU earthquake catastrophe, and TOKAI was the answer then and now.

13. MAIN IDEA Each earthquake disaster throughout the world provides insights on: 1) Preparedness, 2) Protection/prevention, 3) Early Warning (Tsunami), 4) Emergency Response, and 5) Recovery and Reconstruction

14. EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO THE TOKAI, JAPAN EARTHQUAKE ZONE PRE-EARTHQUAKE PLANNING

15. A probabilistic ground shaking hazard map integrates key aspects of geology, geophysics, and seismology in a consistent way to define the Tokai hazard model, which can be combined with Exposure and Vulnerability models to define the Tokai risk model.

16. HAZARD MODEL ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO EXPOSURE MODEL VULNERABILITYMODELVULNERABILITYMODEL LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

17. REGIONAL MAP

18. TOKAI HAZARD MODEL: TECTONICS The Nankai trough marks the boundary where the Philippines tectonic plate is subducting beneath Japan (which is a part of the Eurasian plate).

20. LOCATION OF TOKAI

21. TOKAI HAZARD MODEL: TECTONICS At present, the land near Shizuoka is sinking toward the Nankai trough at about 5 mm/yr. Japan’s Earthquake Research Institute is on record that the Tokai earthquake is eminent.

22. TOKAI HAZARD MODEL: TECTONICS The zone along Tokai has not ruptured since 1854.

23. TOKAI HAZARD MODEL: TECTONICS Scientists believe that the recurrence interval of large- magnitude earthquakes along this zone is 100-150 years.

25. PRE-EARTHQUAKE MONITORING The Government of Japan is currently deploying strain meters throughout the Tokai area to monitor the slip with a goal of providing as much advance warning as possible before the Tokai zone earthquake occurs.

26. PRE- EARTHQUAKE PLANNING The Government of Japan has a pre- earthquake action plan based on the concept of “pre-slip.” Pre-slip is based on laboratory experiments that indicate that a rock undergoes slip for a short, but predictable time, before failing.

27. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS IN THE TOKAI AREA Landslides are likely at 6,449 specific locations 58,402 specific structures and their related infrastructure are susceptible to strong ground shaking, damage, power outages, and quake-related fires

28. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PEPPER

29. Simulating what Southern California is likely to experience in the inevitable future major earthquake Source: US Geological Survey

30. Southern California is prone to moderate-to-large-to great- magnitude earthquakes, because- - - It is located near the boundary between two major tectonic plates marked by the San Andreas fault, where much, but not all, of the stress release happens.

32. The scenario is based on the Southern California Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability and Risk models developed from monitoring, research, and post- earthquakes studies (especially before and after the 1994 Northridge earthquake)

34. SAN ANDREAS

36. The “Big One” occurred on the San Andreas fault in 1857, whereas, many notable moderate-to-large- magnitude earthquakes have occurred on “blind” thrust faults (e.g., Northridge in 1994) in the area

39. BE READY to recover from an inevitable earthquake that could cause about 1800 deaths and $213 billion in economic losses.

40. Identification of the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in Tokai, Japan or Southern California will enable end users to identify what they can change now—

41. — before the earthquake—to shorten recovery from the catastrophic impacts after the inevitable “big ones” occur, probably in the near future.

42. GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE FLOODS SEVERE WIND STORMS EARTHQUAKES DROUGHTS LANDSLIDES WILDFIRES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE TERRORISM INCREASED TECHNICAL AND POLITICL CAPACITY OF COMMUNITY TO COPE INCREASED OWNERSHIP AND USE OF KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCE IMPROVE ON PAST PERFORMANCE

43. YOURCOMMUNITYYOURCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS HAZARDS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE PROTECTION PEPAREDNESS EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCT. FIVE PILLARS OF RESILIENCE

44. MAIN INSIGHTS FROM GLOBAL EARTHQUAKES BEING PREPARED INCLUDES PRE- EARTHQUAKE PLANNING FOR POST- EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY (PEPPER)