1. A “Back of the Envelope” Look at Space Launch Vehicle Costs by Chris Y. Taylor Jupiter Research & Development 2004 AIAA Houston ATS NASA/JSC April 16, 2004 cytaylor@jupiter-measurement.com http://jupiter-measurement.com/research/taylor_ats.ppt http://jupiter-measurement.com/research/rocketcost.xls

2. Estimate of Costs for a New Economical Space Launch Vehicle Cargo to LEO Current Technology Expendable Liquid Fuel

3. C = R Γ C = specific cost ($/lb.) = Launch Cost/Payload Mass R= structure ratio = Structure Mass/Payload Mass Γ= structure cost ($/lb.) = Launch Cost/Structure Mass

4. Physics & Technology R= structure ratio = Structure Mass/Payload Mass Vehicle R (to LEO) Atlas V 4002 Proton M2.2 Ariane 55.2 Space Shuttle12 Assume R=2 Economics & Management Γ= structure cost ($/lb.) = Launch Cost/Structure Mass C = R Γ

5. Γ = Γ launch + (Γ nr /a) Γ= structure cost ($/lb.) = Launch Cost/Structure Mass Γ launch = recurring costs Γ nr = non-recurring costs a= amortization factor  flight rate

6. Γ launch = Γ vehicle + Γ ops + Γ risk + Γ propellant Γ vehicle = Cost of Vehicle Hardware Γ ops = Cost of Operations Γ risk = Cost of Risk Γ propellant = Cost of Propellant

7. Γ vehicle = f C hardware f= fraction of vehicle expended = 1 (completely expendable) C hardware = cost of hardware ($/lb) $1100 < C hardware <$2300 $1100 < Γ vehicle < $2300

8. Γ ops = L C labor L= labor intensity (manhours/lb) = Total Labor Hours / Structure Mass 1 < L < 20 (for current launchers) C labor = cost of labor ($/manhour) = $100 $100 < Γ ops < $2000

9. Γ risk ≈ P fail [C payload /R + (1-f) C hardware ] P fail = probability of failure 0.02 < P fail < 0.05 C payload = cost of payload ($/lb) = payload cost/payload mass ≈ $10,000 R = 2, f = 1 $100 < Γ risk < $250 not including indirect costs

10. Γ propellant = q C propellant q = Propellant Mass/Structure Mass = R[η/(1-η)] = 18 (assuming R=2, η=0.9) $0.1 < C propellant <$0.25 $1.8 < Γ propellant <$4.5

11. Launch Costs C = R Γ: If you want C < $1000/lb. and R=2, then Γ must be < $500

12. Reducing Γ vehicle Γ vehicle = f C hardware Reusable (reduce f) Big Dumb Booster (reduce C hardware )

13. Reducing Γ ops Γ ops = L C labor Aircraft-like Ops (0.001 < L < 0.01) New Technology Needed SSTO Increased Development Cost

14. Γ = Γ launch + (Γ nr /a) Γ nr = non-recurring costs $20,000 < Γ nr < $120,000 (assuming R&D only) a= amortization factor  flight rate = 27 (10 yr. payback, 4 yr. r&d, flight rate of 27/6 yr, 0% interest & inflation) $750 < (Γ nr /a)< $4500

15. Launch Costs

16. Reducing (Γ nr /a) Reduce Γ nr design for min. Γ nr off the shelf evolutionary cost sharing

17. Reducing (Γ nr /a) Increase a on orbit assembly cluster vehicles new markets

18. Selected Bibliography Griffen M.D. and Claybaugh, W.R., “The Cost of Access to Space”, JBIS vol. 47 pp 119-122, 1994 Whitehead, J.C., “Launch Vehicle Cost: A Low Tech Analysis”, AIAA paper 2000-3140, 2000 Kalitventzeff, B., “Various Optimization Methods for Preliminary Cost and Mass Distribution Assessment for Multistage Rocket Vehicles”, JBIS vol. 20, pp 177-183, 1965 Wertz, J.R., “Economic Model of Reusable vs. Expendable Launch Vehicles”, presented IAF Congress, Reo de Janeiro, Brazil, Oct. 2-6, 2000 Worden, S., “Perspectives on Space Future”, presented 2003 NIAC meeting, Nov. 6, 2003, http://www.niac.usra.edu/files /library/fellows_mtg/nov03_mtg/pdf/Worden_Simon.pdf Griffen, M.D., “Heavy Lift Launch for Lunar Exploration”, presented U. of Wisconsin, Nov. 9, 2001, http://fti.neep.wisc.edu/neep533/FALL2001/lecture29.pdf Chang, I.S., “Overview of World Space Launches”, Journal of Prop. and Power, Vol. 16, No. 5, pp 853-866, Sept.-Oct. 2000 Claybaugh, W. R., Economics of Space Transportation AIAA Short Course, 2002 World Space Congress, Houston TX Foust, J., “Is There a Business Case for RLVs?”, The Space Review, Sept. 2, 2003, http://www.thespacereview.com/article/44/1