1. Employment, trade, and sustainable development in Central Asia: Setting the stage Ben Slay UNDP senior advisor Almaty, 23 June 2016

2. Why this meeting? Employment is key to Central Asia’s development challenges – Important links to SDGs 1, 5, 10, 12 Trade/employment linkages are very important – Non-tariff trade barriers in Central Asia are: Very high Particularly hard on small traders – Export of labour-intensive goods? Or of labour (migration)? Needed: – Whole-of-government responses... –... That invest in people and natural capital... –... And are supported by private sector, civic engagement—and coordinated donor activities

3. The problem in Central Asia is not employment per se... Shares of working-aged populations employed UNDP calculations, based on World Bank World Development Indicators data.

4. ... It’s too few decent jobs Source: World Bank World Development Indicators (2013 data, or most recent year).

5. Central Asia and SDG indicator 8.3.1 UNDP calculations, based on World Bank World Development Indicators (2013 data, or most recent year).

6. Labour markets have important cross-border dimensions Millions of migrants from less wealthy Central Asian countries work (informally, irregularly) in Russia, Kazakhstan – National gender migration patterns are very different Short-term versus long-term: – During 2015-2016, returning migrants further pressure national labour markets – Longer term: demographics + stronger economic growth in Russia, Kazakhstan seem likely to push migration flows back toward pre-2015 levels What to export? Labour? Or labour- intensive goods and services? Estimated shares of labour force working in Russia (2014) UNDP calculations, based on World Bank, RF Migration Service data.

7. Commodity composition of Central Asian exports: Capital-, natural resource-intensive UNDP calculations, based on 2012 ITC data.ITC

8. High trading costs slow export growth Landlocked economiesRanking in World Bank’s “Trading Across Borders” category (Costs of doing business, 2012 survey) Armenia116 th Moldova149 th Belarus150 th Kyrgyz Republic184 th Kazakhstan186 th Tajikistan188 th Uzbekistan189 th Out of 189 countries, total. Turkmenistan was not ranked.

9. Big exporters can cover high trading costs, but small traders can not Small trader from Batken Imported equipment at the Kumtor mining complex

10. This trade pattern has consequences for employment It limits output, employment growth in labour-intensive sectors – Light industry – Wholesale, retail trade – Tourism These are also sectors with high shares of female employment UNDP calculations, based on 2012 data from national statistical office web sites. Ratio of sectoral share in total female employment to sectoral share in total male employment

11. It can also have ecological consequences Aral Sea, 1989-2008 Source: Wikipedia

12. Thank you very much! ben.slay@undp.org http://jobs4prosperity.org/kazakhstan/ ben.slay@undp.org