2. Global Climate Change

3. GCC – The Central Issue Global Climate Change refers to a set of environmental concerns, primarily global warming and the ozone hole, that are related to human activity.

4. Global Warming Global warming refers to the gradual increase of the Earth’s temperature because of energy trapped by the Earth’s atmosphere The retention of the heat by the atmosphere is called the greenhouse effect.

5. How the Greenhouse effect works Heat is received by the Earth from the sun This heat is reflected back out into space. As long as this energy input-output exchange is in equilibrium, we stay the same temperature (globally) If something alters it, we either heat up or cool down.

7. Permanent gases Permanent gases in the atmosphere by percent are: Nitrogen 78.1% Oxygen 20.9% Argon 0.9% Neon 0.002% Helium 0.0005% Krypton 0.0001% Hydrogen 0.00005%

8. Variable gases in the atmosphere Variable gases in the atmosphere and typical percentage values are: Water vapor 0 to 4% Carbon Dioxide 0.035% Methane 0.0002% Ozone 0.000004% CFC’s (not naturally occurring) Water Vapor, Carbon Dioxide, Methane and CFC’s act as heat sinks in the atmosphere.

9. Relative concerns over Greenhouse gases CO 2 is the largest concern, being the largest percentage of the atmosphere Methane holds more heat, but its atmospheric duration is about 10 years CFC’s hold much more heat, and last a very long time, but still are a smaller portion

10. CO 2 The most plentiful greenhouse gas Results from Combustion of fossil fuels Gas best fuel Oil medium Coal worst  Based on ratio of carbon to hydrogen in the molecules Burning of vegetation/deforestation Reduced uptake in plants/deforestation

11. Mauna Loa CO 2 observations The data on atmospheric CO 2 collected by Keeling at the Mauna Loa observatory is said to be the most widely seen data set in the world. It was started in 1955 CO 2 was at 313ppm then It is at 375ppm in 2002, an increase of 16.5% in 47 years

12. The Keeling CO 2 Data

13. Carbon Sources and Sinks Places that provide carbon are called reservoirs. Places where carbon settles are called sinks Exchanges between sinks and reservoirs are called fluxes. There are four major reservoirs for carbon The atmosphere The oceans The biosphere Fossil fuels Ultimately the crust forms the basic sink for carbon via the deep oceans to carbonate rock and fossil fuels

14. Methane Sources Coal mining Oil production Organic decomposition Animal digestion Resident in atmosphere about 10 years

15. CFCs Nasty little gases CFCs do not occur in nature – the Fluorine bond is to strong to break naturally. CFCs come from Refrigerants Styrofoam, foaming agents Cleaning electronics Spray propellants

16. Impacts of Climate Change Temperature rise Precipitation Soil Moisture Changing Habitats Sea Level Rise Ocean Currents

17. Temperature Rise Estimates are in the 1.5° to 4.5° C range based on General Circulation Models (GCM) of the atmosphere. Every degree C is equal to about 100 miles of latitude. This means that WV will have the ecosystems of North GA/SC Rising temperature means rising AC usage, which means rising CO2 consumption, accelerating greenhouse effect This is a positive feedback loop

18. Global Temp Rise

19. Icebergs Glacier flow Melting provides lubrication Increases snow itself can cause compression – resulting in faster flow. (A worry if winters are warmer, but snowy due to increased water vapor)

20. Weather Climate change is not a problem of a few degrees, it is one of change in weather patterns Precipitation changes climatic subsystems Ecosystem change Coral reefs  Bleaching

21. Changes in Precipitation Changing Patterns of rainfall/drought Extreme Precipitation events Droughts Storms - flooding Snowfall Hurricanes In a warmer world, more hurricanes, longer season, and more powerful storms

22. Changing Habitats Changes in habitat Migration patterns Ecosystem changes Changes in species populations can ripple through an ecosystem.

23. Sea Level Rise Thermal expansion of water Arctic Ice pack Glaciers Greenland Western Antarctic

24. The scary stuff Loss of both Antacrcic and Greenland glaciers Sea level rise of ~75’ Global Dimming Accelerating warming very quickly Ocean current disruption

25. Human Impacts & Security Issues Disease Malaria West Nile Dengue Fever Ebola ? Insects

26. More Issues Food security Immigration patterns Storms & disasters

27. The Montreal protocol Due to the Montreal protocol, CFCs will be less of a concern, as time goes on Outlawed manufacture, sale or use of CFCs in many instances

28. Why was Montreal successful? The Montreal Protocol occurred because: Scientific agreement on problem (upper atmospheric CFC’s destroy upper atmospheric ozone (O 3 ++). Technological substitutions are economically viable. The company which held the license on the offending chemicals (Freon 11,12, etc) also held newer licenses on those substitutes (DuPont).

29. Will Montreal occur for climate change? No! Scientific consensus will not emerge until it is too late The winners and losers have very large stakes. Technological substitutes are not available, or will be economically prohibitive.

30. Is there Hope?