1. Non-State Actors (NSA) In Sub-Saharan Africa 2007-2012 Outlook Mercyhurst Intelligence Estimate By: Mark Blair Daniel McNulty Brittany Monteparte Andreea Neagu Adrienne Sluga 29 October 2007

2. 2 Agenda Requirements Methodological Key Findings NSA Key Findings for each major question Guided Tour Of The Wiki

3. 3 Requirement What role will non-state actors (NSA) play and what impact will NSA have in Sub-Saharan Africa over the next five years? –What is the likely importance of NSA vs. State Actors, Supra-State Actors and other relevant categories of actors in sub Saharan Africa? –What are the roles of these actors in key countries, such as Niger? –Are there geographic, cultural, economic or other patterns of activity along which the roles of these actors are either very different or strikingly similar? What analytical processes and methodologies were applied to the questions above and which proved to be effective or ineffective?

4. 4 Key Findings Summary: The roles of NSA will likely remain stagnant over the next five years. NSA roles are determined by: –Availability of vital resources –Degree of government control and corruption –Regional stability –Development of the economic sectors –The necessity to address the human development

5. 5 Methodology

6. 6 Assumption Within the realm of human social systems there exists an equal potential for government sanctioned opportunities and extra-government opportunities (Power Venues) for NSA to play a role to influence their geopolitics.

7. 7 Methodology Government Sanctioned Power Venues Include: Participation in politics Participation in special interest groups Ownership of resources Extra-Government Power Venues include: Violence Ideological Persuasion Bribery

8. 8 Methodology Pure Totalitarian regimes present no power venues for NSA. Pure Libertarian regimes provide the largest amount of Government-Sanctioned Power Venues for NSA. Pure Anarchies provide the largest amount of Extra- Government Power Venues for NSA. This Dynamic is due to two factors: –The degree the government curtails the behaviors of NSA. –When a few influential individuals control the majority of resources (industrial, political, economic) state actors easily out compete NSA.

9. 9 Methodology Government Control ++ Lawful ActorsUnlawful Actors 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 - Government Sanctioned Power Venues Extra-Government Power Venues (i.e. Failed States) Totalitarianism No Role Potential Role For NSA Scale 0

10. 10 Methodology Coefficients scores for “role potentials” were created as such: 1 - A totalitarian sample (Iran, Syria, etc) is used to anchor the center point of the indices. 2 - The two sides, containing an equal potential for power venues as defined by the assumption, are divided into quintiles 3 - Sub-Saharan states rankings are converted to coefficient scores accordingly Rank: 1 Rank:177 1- Totalitarian Sample Score 2- Indices divided into quintiles 0 5 4321 5 4 3 21 3- Score Calculated

11. 11 Methodology Geospatial Analysis is used to locate geographic patterns of NSA and compare with coefficient data. NGOs in Sub-Sahara

12. 12 Methodology Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) is used for each country to validate its coefficient score.

13. 13 What Is The Likely Importance Of NSA vs. State Actors And Supra-State Actors In Sub- Saharan Africa?

14. 14 Non-state Actors vs. State Actors Non-state actors –Multitude of functional roles –Limited real power and influence –Somalia, Chad & Sudan present the largest potential for Extra-Government Power Venues –South Africa, Botswana, & Mauritius present the largest potential for Government Sanctioned Power Venues State actors –Significant state control over political and economic institutions –77% of Sub-Saharan countries are in the lower 40 percentile for sustainable NSA Sub-Saharan countries, when compared to countries worldwide, generally fall into the lower 40 percentile in terms of sustaining influential NSA.

15. 15 MAURITANIA 1-EG NIGER 2-EG MALI 2-GS SUDAN 2-EG CHAD 4-EG ETHIOPIA 1-GS ERITREA 2-EG DJIBOUTI 1-EG SOMALIA 5-EG KENYA 2-GS/EG TANZANIA 2-GS MADAGASCAR 2-GS MOZAMBIQUE 1-GS SWAZILAND 1-GS LESOTHO 2-GS S. AFRICA 4-GS NAMIBIA 3-GS BOTSWANA 4-GS ZIMBABWE 2-EG MALAWI 1-GS ZAMBIA 1-GS ANGOLA 1-EG DROC 3-EG REP. OF CONGO 3-EG GABON 2-GS SAO TOME & PRINCIPE 1-GS BENIN 2-GS EQUATORIAL GUINEA 2-EG TOGO 2-EG GHANA 2-GS NIGERIA 1-EG CAMEROON 1-EG CENTRAL AFRICAN REP. 4-EG COTE D’IVOIRE 2-EG SIERRA LEONE 2-EG LIBERIA 3-EG GUINEA 3-EG GUINEA-BISSAU 2-EG THE GAMBIA 1-GS SENEGAL 2-GS CAPE VERDE 2-GS UGANDA 2-GS BURKINA FASO 2-EG RWANDA 1-GS/EG BURUNDI 2-EG COMOROS 1-GS SEYECHELLES 2-GS MAURITIUS 4-GS 52234543 1 0 1 Government Sanctioned Power Venues Extra-Government Power Venues Overall NSA Role Scores No Role Multiple Significant Roles Multiple Significant Roles

16. 16 Supra-State Actors United Nations –Vast areas of involvement Peacekeeping – likely to increase Human development and aid European Union African Union –Limited resources hinder expended influence

17. 17 What are the roles of these actors in key countries, such as Niger?

18. 18 Roles of NSA

19. 19 Are There Geographic, Cultural, Economic Or Other Patterns Of Activity Along Which The Roles Of These Actors Are Either Very Different Or Striking Similar?

20. 20 Patterns of Activity Geographical Community Walk Maps South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and Uganda Business: –Focused primarily in countries with access to the sea NGO: –Significantly larger NGO presence in democratic nations Terrorist Organizations: –Few active and violent –Majority transformed themselves into political organizations

21. 21 Patterns of Activity - continued Cultural –No pattern?

22. 22 Patterns of Activity - continued Economic –No pattern?

23. 23 Guided Tour Of The Wiki