1. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets M. Tokumaru Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan B.V. Jackson Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, CA, USA Masayoshi http://smei.ucsd.edu/ http://ips.ucsd.edu/ H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington, Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, CA, USA D. Odstrcil George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, and NASA-Goddard Spaceflight Center, USA M.M Bisi RAL Space, Science & Technology Facilities Council, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Oxford, Didcot, Oxfordshire, OX11 0QX, England (UK) S. Hong, J. Kim Korean Space Weather Center, National Radio Research Agency, 198-6, Jeju, 695-922 South Korea Space Weather Forecasting Using Remotely-sensed Heliospheric IPS Data Sets from Around the World A. Gonzalez-Espararza George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, and NASA-Goddard Spaceflight Center, USA B. Lee, J. Yi, J Yun SELab, 8, Nonhyeon-ro 150-gil, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, South Korea

2. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets IPS Space Weather Forecasting IPS Tomographic Analyses: STELab, Japan; The UCSD iterative kinematic prediction technique; Used primarily with STELab observations, Other data sets can fill in; Used in space weather prediction elsewhere including at the KSWC, Jeju; the CCMC; NICT, Japan IPS tomographic analysis displays: UCSD, elsewhere Magnetic field component forward-modeling – Br, Bt: Part of the package developed at UCSD Interesting Developments: Bn determination via a simple technique (under development) Introduction:

3. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Analysis

4. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets STELab IPS array near Mt. Fuji DATA STELab IPS array systems IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab)

5. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets IPS line-of-sight response DATA STELab IPS array systems IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab)

6. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets New STELab IPS array in Toyokawa (3,432 m 2 array now operates well – year-round operation began in 2011) Current STELab Toyokawa IPS System

7. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets “Image” of the Sky Ecliptic Plane Projection View from STELab, JapanView from MEXART, Mexico

8. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets World-Wide IPS observation network Japan Mexico India Russia UK/EISCAT LOFAR) US-Australia Ooty 327MHz 、 16,000 ㎡ Pushchino103MHz 70,000 ㎡ MEXART 140MHz 、 10,000 ㎡ MWA 80-300MHz STEL Multi-Station 327MHz 2000 ㎡ ×3, 3500 ㎡ IPS Korea

9. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Other Current Dedicated IPS Radio Systems The Pushchino Radio Observatory 70,000 m 2 110 MHz array, Russia (summer 2006) Now named the “Big Scanning Array of the Lebedev Physical Institute” (BSA LPI). The Ootacamund (Ooty), India off-axis parabolic cylinder 530 m long and 30 m wide (15,900 m 2 ) operating at a nominal frequency of 326.5 MHz.

10. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets MWA (Western Australia) Other and Potential Future Dedicated IPS Systems (128 tiles are now operating. Some scintillation data has been obtained.) LOFAR (Western Europe) (Some parts of the system are now operating - Richard Fallows, Mario Bisi are involved. IPS/FR tests are ongoing.) MEXART (Mexico)KSWC (South Korea) Dedicated IPS 700 m 2 327 MHz IPS radio 32 tile array, Jeju Island Dedicated IPS IPS 9,600 m 2 140 MHz IPS radio array near Michoacan, Mexico

11. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets MWA (Western Australia) Other and Potential Future Dedicated IPS Systems (128 tiles are now operating. Some scintillation data has been obtained.) LOFAR (Western Europe) (Partsof the system are now operating - Richard Fallows, Mario Bisi are involved. IPS/FR tests are ongoing.) MEXART (Mexico)KSWC (South Korea) Dedicated IPS 700 m 2 327 MHz IPS radio 32 tile array, Jeju Island Dedicated IPS IPS 9,600 m 2 140 MHz IPS radio array near Michoacan, Mexico

12. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets UCSD IPS Predictions

13. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Sample outward motion over time Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction. IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360. STELab IPS

14. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets 13 July 200014 July 2000 Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction. STELab IPS IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360.

15. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Fisheye velocity skymaps with additional radio sources Time-Dependent Analysis Using Other IPS Systems Analysis including MEXART source Analysis without MEXART source Jackson, B.V., et al., 2013, AGU 2013 Presentation, May, Cancoon, Mexico.

16. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets 13 July 2000 Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction. STELab IPS IPS line-of-sight response Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. Innovation * Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339.

17. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions Innovation Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

18. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions Innovation Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

19. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Heliospheric 3D- reconstructions Forecasts work better if the values match up to the present. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. Used at the CCMC and the KSWC Forecast Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions Density Velocity Forecast Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Forecast

20. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets UCSD IPS analysis Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ UCSD Web pages Current Prediction Analyses Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

21. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Skysweep view Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. UCSD IPS prediction analysis

22. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Skysweep view Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. UCSD IPS prediction analysis Fit to ACE and CELIAS data

23. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Skysweep view Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. UCSD IPS prediction analysis Fit to ACE and CELIAS data

24. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets More Details Magnetic Field

25. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets (Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19.) http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Magnetic Field Extrapolation 1.Inner region: the CSSS model calculates the magnetic field using photospheric measurements and a horizontal current model. 2.Middle region: the CSSS model opens the field lines. In the outer region. 3.Outer region: the UCSD tomography convects the magnetic field along velocity flow lines. Dunn et al., 2005, Solar Physics 227: 339–353. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115

26. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ EarthRadial and Tangential Magnetic Field (Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115 )

27. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ EarthRadial and Tangential Magnetic Field (Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115 )

28. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ (Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115 ) Correlations (from UCSD forecast) Pearson’s “r” correlation five-day behind comparison

29. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ (Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115 ) Correlations (from UCSD forecast) Pearson’s “r” correlation one-day ahead comparison

30. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets IPS Prediction (KSWC) http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/ips

31. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets But what is really wanted is B z

32. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Source surface B r field component sample CSSS model (Jackson, B.V., et al., 2015, ApJL, 803:L1. 1- 5, doi:10.1088/2041-8205/803/1/L1.)

33. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Extrapolated B r field component for CR 2056 CSSS model (Jackson, B.V., et al., 2015, ApJL, 803:L1. 1- 5, doi:10.1088/2041-8205/803/1/L1.)

34. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets I have often wondered where the Bz in-situ field comes from. The Parker spiral analysis does not indicate how a normal field (north-south) can occur, and yet the field exists.

35. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets I have often wondered where the Bz in-situ field comes from. The Parker spiral analysis does not indicate how a normal field (north south) can occur, and yet the field exists.

36. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Near cusp surface B n field component sample CSSS model (Jackson, B.V., et al., 2015, ApJL, 803:L1. 1- 5, doi:10.1088/2041-8205/803/1/L1.)

37. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Extrapolated B n field component for CR 2056 CSSS model (Jackson, B.V., et al., 2015, ApJL, 803:L1. 1- 5, doi:10.1088/2041-8205/803/1/L1.) About 1/50 th of the static flux r -1.34 fall-off

38. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Near cusp surface B n field component sample CSSS model (Jackson, B.V., et al., 2015, ApJL, 803:L1. 1- 5, doi:10.1088/2041-8205/803/1/L1.)

39. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets IPS Space Weather Forecasting IPS Tomography Analyses: Making good predictions of in-situ measurements ahead of time keeps you “honest” New Systems: Incorporation of other systems into the analysis is possible, and possibly helps other IPS sites standardize and edit their own data sets Interesting Developments: Potential practical determination of three-component magnetic fields is under development, so far at fairly low resolution Summary:

40. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets IPS Space Weather Forecasting IPS Tomographic Analyses: STELab, Japan; The UCSD iterative kinematic prediction technique; Used primarily with STELab observations, Other data sets can fill in; Used in space weather prediction elsewhere including at the KSWC, Jeju; the CCMC; NICT, Japan IPS tomographic analysis displays: UCSD, elsewhere Magnetic field component forward-modeling – Br, Bt: Part of the package developed at UCSD Interesting Developments: Bn determination via a simple technique (under development) Introduction:

41. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets More Details An Iterated IPS Time-Dependent 3D-MHD Model

42. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets 13 July 200014 July 2000 Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction. STELab IPS IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360.

43. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets The “traceback matrix” (any solar wind model works) In the traceback matrix the location of the upper level data point (starred) is an interpolation in x of Δx2 and the unit x distance – Δx3 distance or (1 – Δx3). Similarly, the value of Δt at the starred point is interpolated by the same spatial distance. Each 3D traceback matrix contains a regular grid of values ΣΔx, ΣΔy, ΣΔt, ΣΔv, and ΣΔm that locates the origin of each point in the grid at each time and its change in velocity and density from the heliospheric model. The UCSD 3D-reconstruction program Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360. Traceback Using an External Volume

44. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets Extrapolated B n field component for CR 2056 CSSS model (Jackson, B.V., et al., 2015, ApJL, 803:L1. 1- 5, doi:10.1088/2041-8205/803/1/L1.) About 1/50 th of the static flux r -1.34 fall-off

45. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets KSWC (South Korea) Dedicated IPS ~700 m 2 327 MHz IPS radio 32 tile array, Jeju Island

46. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets KSWC (South Korea)

47. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets IPS Prediction (KSWC) http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/ips

48. CASS/UCSD RSW3 2015 Space Weather Forecasting from IPS Data Sets IPS Prediction (KSWC) http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/ips