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Published byDelilah Norris Modified over 8 years ago
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Conference Call February 12, 2007
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The Economy Bureau of Labor Statistics reported labor productivity for non-farm businesses rose 2.1% (YOY) in Q4 2006 – Important determinant for both corporate profits and inflation Productivity improved in Q4 2006 (2.1% v. 1.3% Q3) but grew slower for the year Unit labor costs for non-farm businesses rose 2.8% in Q4 and 3.2% for 2006
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The Economy Institute for Supply Management reported that its non-manufacturing index rose to 59% in January 2007 v. 56.7% in December 2006 William Poole, St. Louis Fed Reserve Bank and voting member of the FOMC, stated he believes US economy should grow at a sustainable pace in 2007 and that inflation may decrease during year – However, he stated the Fed is ready to take action if the core inflation does not drop below 2% (meaning raise short- term interest rates)
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The Markets Comments by Fed officials that it is willing to raise short-term interest rates if the core inflation does not drop below 2% caused the bond and stock markets to react negatively for the week Financial sector fell -0.51% on concerns about higher interest rates and reports from HSBC that delinquencies on sub-prime mortgages are falling Technology sector fell -0.71% for the week on reports of pricing declines for memory chips in Q1 2007
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The Markets Dow Jones Home Construction group fell 7.25% for the week after Toll Brothers announced a 33% drop in orders QInsight believes investors should anticipate most short-term price correction in the major stock indexes, but outlook in coming months for stocks looks promising
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QInsight Thoughts QInsight’s business cycle model in PLUNGE Financial, Financial Services, Basic Materials, Consumer discretionary, and Consumer Staples have historically led during Plunge QInsight is concerned investors are expecting the Fed to reduce short-term rates earlier than economic data or Fed statements indicate is likely
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