1. From productivity revolutions to food security? The possibilities for agrarian history in 18 th and 19 th - century Britain Henry French - History

2. Food security and historical interpretations Past – Productivity revolutions Present – GDP/living standards Future – Food security?

3. PAST - Traditional Interpretations ‘Agricultural Revolution’ Productivity increases Technology improvements Institutional change

4. PAST - Productivity England & Wales: 1650 – Grain imports 1750 – Grain exports Similar population levels

5. PAST - Technology ‘Great Men’/’Cows & Ploughs’ Agricultural tools Improved agronomy Selective breeding Diffusion

6. PAST - Institutional Change Land, Labour, Capital: Enclosure Tenures Farm size Tripartite labour structure

7. PAST - Main debate? When was the ‘Agricultural Revolution? 1560-1670? 1650-1750? 1750-1850?

8. PRESENT – GDP/Living standards ‘Great Divergence’ English exceptionalism? Labourers & nutrition

9. PRESENT – Great Divergence Britain bucking the trend? Higher labour productivity Relatively abundant food Higher real wages Greater consumption

10. PRESENT – English exceptionalism? A return to ‘optimism’? Ag. productivity higher, earlier? Shallower decline in real wages post-1500? Earlier, but shallower growth, post-1650?

11. PRESENT – The nutrition angle Where does the productivity come from? Labourers better fed Therefore food more abundant Therefore living standards higher

12. PRESENT - main debate? Security achieved – earlier, but slower? High living standards, by international standards Security achieved by 17 th century? Higher wages/lower costs = demand = industry?

13. FUTURE – Food security? History through the lens of food security: Is it national self-sufficiency? Is it environmental sustainability? No ‘golden ages’?

14. FUTURE – Food security? Post-1846 - Free trade v. self- sufficiency Agricultural depression – a productivist construction? 20 th Century – War = ‘Food security’

15. FUTURE – Environmental sustainability Productivism, at what cost? Long-term measures of bio- diversity, since Middle Ages Soil degradation/nitrogen levels, since 1840s Intensification & the end of ‘easy oil’, since 1940s

16. FUTURE – History without ‘golden ages’? Need to assess the contemporary environmental costs of productivity ‘revolutions’ ‘Security’ not just ‘national’ but ‘global’ Relationship between state intervention and food ‘security’