1. Processes of Democratization The region has been immune to successful democratisation, but it has not been immune to processes of democratization. It is worth looking in detail at how processes of democratisation develop and conclude because they can tell us ‘why’ the transition failed and ‘what’ kind of regime emerges from this failure. Empirical evidence shows us that certain countries attempted to democratise: –Tunisia in 1987. Political pact signed by all parties in 1988 to open up the political system. The Islamist party is a growing force and the pact reneged by the President a year later. –Algeria in 1989. Legislative elections called off in 1991 after the first round once it became clear that the Islamist party would win. –Jordan in 1990. Emergency laws are repealed and political participation allowed. When Jordan signs a peace treaty with Israel in 1994, the system is closed off again. –Morocco in 1997. One Islamist party is allowed to run, but the other radical one is not. Alternance fails by 2003 with the upgrading of the authoritarian system. –Is it going to be the same in Tunisia and Egypt in 2011?

2. Transitions to democracy Processes of democratization entail a profound transformation of the political system from authoritarian rule to democracy: transition to democracy. –There is a very specific endpoint that should be reached: it is a western-style democracy, therefore liberal-democracy. A political system that looks like ours. –A transition is procedurally deemed complete when democracy is consolidated (i.e. two consecutive free and fair elections with a peaceful transfer of power).

3. Transitions to democracy II How do transitions begin? There is usually a ‘shock’ to the authoritarian system (i.e. an economic crisis) which divides the ruling elites in two camps: hard-liners and soft-liners. The system is opened up to sectors of the opposition: liberalisation phase. Opposition also divided: moderates and radicals. The ruling elites and the opposition design new rules of the game. The main traits of this period is: volatility.

4. Transitions to democracy III Not all transitions are successful, at times countries revert back to authoritarianism: the failure of democratization. –Transitions go through stages and it is possible for the whole process to collapse at any of these stages. –The return to authoritarian rule however leaves a legacy of ‘democratic’ discourse and is never fully complete.

5. The failure of democratization in the MENA region All countries in the region, with the exception of Iraq, attempted to move away from authoritarianism during the late 1980s and the 1990s, but not one consolidated democracy. –Lack of true belief in the reforming process by the rulers. Democratization as a strategy of ‘buying time.’ This however does not usually matter. Processes of democratization are almost never initiated by genuine democrats –Democratization entails high expectations of social and economic change: when this does not happen there is a high degree of frustration. Democracy as panacea.

6. Transitions as games Transitions can be conceived as path- dependent games: –Identify the principal actors: rulers (hardliners vs. softliners) and opposition (moderates vs. radicals) –Identify their preferences. –Identify their resources (material and ‘moral’) –Take into account structural factors –…play the game!

7. The example of Algeria The failed transition of Algeria. –Economic crisis leads to regime crisis. –Ruling elites open the political system to gain legitimacy. –Opposition parties participate to the new system and win. –Victory scares ruling elites: the ‘fear factor’. –New resources are found to allow ruling elites to stop democratic process. –Return to authoritarian rule: game over.