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Presented at: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 24 March 2011 Tunisia Predicted: Demography and the Probability of Liberal Democracy in the Greater Middle East Richard Cincotta Consultant on Political Demography, The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Demographer-in-residence The Stimson Center rcincotta@stimson.org
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Thanks to: National Intelligence Council Long Range Analysis Unit Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Environmental Change & Security Program. The Stimson Center
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Four democracy questions Why are some states seemingly “unready for liberal democracy”? Why are some groups of liberal democracies so stable? Why has there been a decade-long break in political liberalization? What are reasonable expectations for developing states in terms of democratization?
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Data: UN Population Division, 2009
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Year (5-yr period) Tunisia Egypt Syria Algeria Jordan
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Transitional Population age structures 2005 Data: UN Population Division, 2009 Cincotta, 2009
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DATA SOURCE: UN Population Division, 2009 Four categories: four individual countries
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Hobbesian Bargain Hypothesis: Elites Citizenry Political rights Civil liberties Security Youth Bulge Hypothesis: Effort needed to recruit for political violence Low amount of effort needed High amount of effort needed
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Median Age (Years) 1525354555 YouthfulIntermediateMaturePost-Mature AuthoritarianismLiberalization Net Benefits
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Median Age (Years) 1525354555 Likelihood YouthfulIntermediateMaturePost-Mature Violent intra-state conflict Liberal democracy
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Transitional Population age structures 2005 Data: UN Population Division, 2009 Zone of Vulnerability: high risk of political violence high risk of losing liberal democracy
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Proportion Liberal democracies Proportion of liberal democracies in age-structural categories YouthfulIntermediateMaturePost-Mature Nil set
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Cincotta & Doces, 2011 Liberal democracy and age-structural youthfulness in 5 world regions, 1975-2005 Data: UN Population Division, 2009
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Youth bulges and the path to liberal democracy: 8 selected states Cincotta, 2009 Some anecdotal evidence of rises as youth bulge declines.
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Four democracy questions Why are some states seemingly “unready for liberal democracy”? States with youthful populations have a lower probability of rising to and remaining a liberal democracy Why are some groups of liberal democracies so stable? States with mature populations typically have stable liberal democracies. Why has there been a decade-long break in political liberalization? Few developing countries are moving through the “sweet spot” of their age structural transition (median age ~26 to 35 years) What are reasonable expectations for developing states in terms of democratization? Don’t have high expectations for democracy when age structures are young.
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