1. University Extension/Department of Economics Soybean Situation and Outlook 2010 Midwest/Great Plains /Western Outlook Conference Omaha, Nebraska August 17, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 Image Source: Scott Bauer, USDA-ARS

2. University Extension/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2007200820092010 Area Planted(mil. acres)64.775.777.578.9 Yield(bu./acre)41.739.744.0 Production(mil. bu.)2,6772,9673,3593,433 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)574205138160 Imports(mil. bu.)10131510 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,2613,1853,5123,603 Crush(mil. bu.)1,8031,6621,7501,650 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.)93106133158 Exports(mil. bu.)1,1591,2791,4701,435 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,0563,0473,3533,243 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)205138160360 Season-Average Price($/bu.)10.109.979.609.25 Source: USDA

3. University Extension/Department of Economics Source: USDA, Crop Progress

4. University Extension/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS

5. University Extension/Department of Economics Projections based on Crop Conditions

6. University Extension/Department of Economics Source: USDA-NASS

7. University Extension/Department of Economics Aug.-Oct. Temperature Outlook Source: NOAA-NWS-CPC

8. University Extension/Department of Economics Aug.-Oct. Precipitation Outlook Source: NOAA-NWS-CPC

9. University Extension/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Use 200820092010 Production(mil. lb.)18,74519,55518,810 Beg. Stocks(mil. lb.)2,4852,8613,176 Imports(mil. lb.)90110115 Total Supply(mil. lb.)21,31922,52622,101 Domestic(mil. lb.)16,26516,10017,400 Methyl Ester(mil. lb.)2,0131,8002,900 Exports(mil. lb.)2,1933,2502,100 Total Use(mil. lb.)18,45919,35019,500 Ending Stocks(mil. lb.)2,8613,1762,601 Season-Average Price(¢/lb.)32.1635.5038.50 Source: USDA

10. University Extension/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use 200820092010 Production(thou. short tons)39,10241,52539,235 Beg. Stocks(thou. short tons)294235300 Imports(thou. short tons)88140165 Total Supply(thou. short tons)39,48441,90039,700 Domestic(thou. short tons)30,75230,10030,500 Exports(thou. short tons)8,49711,5008,900 Total Use(thou. short tons)39,24941,60039,400 Ending Stocks(thou. short tons)235300 Season-Average Price($/short ton)331.17310.00270.00 Source: USDA

11. University Extension/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA

12. University Extension/Department of Economics Soybeans – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

13. University Extension/Department of Economics Population 2010 2020 2050 (billion) World6.831World7.558World9.202 China1.330China1.385India1.657 India1.173India1.326China1.304 U.S.0.310U.S.0.341U.S.0.439 Indonesia0.243Indonesia0.268Indonesia0.313 Brazil0.201Brazil0.223Ethiopia0.278 Pakistan0.177Pakistan0.204Pakistan0.276 Bangladesh0.158Nigeria0.182Nigeria0.264 Nigeria0.152Bangladesh0.181Brazil0.260 Russia0.139Russia0.132Bangladesh0.234 Japan0.127Mexico0.125Congo0.189 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base

14. University Extension/Department of Economics In 2020, we will use 26 billion bushels of wheat, 36 billion bushels of corn, and 11 billion bushels of soybeans. World Consumption Growth Sources: USDA, FAPRI In 2000, we used 21.5 billion bushels of wheat, 24 billion bushels of corn, and 6 billion bushels of soybeans.

15. University Extension/Department of Economics Exchange Rates (Jan. 2009 = 1) Source: USDA-ERS

16. University Extension/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

17. University Extension/Department of Economics 2009 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA-FAS

18. University Extension/Department of Economics Advance Sales Source: USDA-FAS

19. University Extension/Department of Economics Advance Sales Source: USDA-FAS

20. University Extension/Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

21. University Extension/Department of Economics Biodiesel Production

22. University Extension/Department of Economics Biodiesel Margins Source: ISU-CARD

23. University Extension/Department of Economics Soy

24. University Extension/Department of Economics Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, July 30, 2010

25. University Extension/Department of Economics Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

26. University Extension/Department of Economics Projected 2009 Season-Average Soy Price

27. University Extension/Department of Economics Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

28. University Extension/Department of Economics Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

29. University Extension/Department of Economics Projected 2011 Price Movements

30. University Extension/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/