1. Future employment trends Tony Donohoe, Head of Social and Education Policy tony.donohoe@ibec.ie

2. www.ibec.ie Future employment trends  Short-term outlook  Long-term forecasts –FAS/ESRI Manpower Studies 2003 –National Skills Strategy  Policy context  Workplace of the future  Implications for supported employment

3. www.ibec.ie Economic outlook (%) 200620072008 Consumer spending5.76.13.8 Government spending5.35.53.5 Investment3.1-0.1-3.3 Exports4.47.05.5 Imports4.45.24.0 GDP5.74.83.4 GNP6.54.43.2

4. www.ibec.ie Employment outlook 200620072008 Agriculture117116115 Industry560573561 Services1,3621,4141,454 Total at work2,0392,1032,130 Unemployed93103123 % unemployed4.44.75.5 (‘000 )

5. www.ibec.ie Vacancies notified to FAS

6. www.ibec.ie PPSN allocations to EU10 migrants Source: FAS Labour Market Commentary

7. www.ibec.ie International unemployment

8. www.ibec.ie Employment growth 2005-2012 Source: FAS/ESRI Manpower Forecasting Study

9. www.ibec.ie Employment by sector 2000-2020

10. www.ibec.ie National Skills Strategy 2005 - 2020 Current stock 1.43m New flow from education system 640,000 Migrant labour 310,000 Upskill through: Training Adult education Increase retention rates at second level Increase third level participation Recognition of qualifications English language programmes Integration into education & training system

11. www.ibec.ie National Skills Strategy - Vision

12. www.ibec.ie Policy context – Towards 2016  Consolidating and progressing vocational training and employment services  Extending the National Employment Action Plan FAS referral process to people with disabilities  Public service employment in accordance with Disability Act, 2005  Promoting awareness  Materials developed under Workway

14. www.ibec.ie Workplace of the future  Agile  Customer centred  Knowledge intensive  Responsive to employee needs  Networked  Highly productive  Involved and participatory  Continually learning  Proactively diverse

15. www.ibec.ie Obstacles to employment