1. Integrating Frameworks for Energy and Climate Policy Analysis. Professor Rudolf B. Husar, Director, Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis, Washington University, St. Louis, MO, USA, rhusar@me.wustl.edu Professor Shen Dingli, Director, Center for American Studiesrhusar@me.wustl.edu Fudan University, Shanghai, China Shanghai Forum 2010 Shanghai, China, May 30, 31

2. Analysis Framework I: Biogeochemical & Energy Flow Loop

3. Physical Causes of Climate Change Climate System: Atmosphere, Ocean, Land, Ice Multiple Climate Change Drivers: Some Heating other for Cooling

4. Analysis Framework II: Societal Causes of Climate Change CO 2 Emiss. = (Pop) (GDP/Pers) (Energy/GDP) (CO 2 /Energy) Carbon Intensity of Energy Mix Energy Intensity of Economy Economic Development Total Population Carbon emissions are driven by at least four distinct factors Each represents a different aspect of human-nature interaction

5. Drivers of C Emission Change, 1990-2000 Data from World Bank

6. Climate Policy CO 2 Emiss. = (Pop) (GDP/Pers) (Energy/GDP) (CO 2 /Energy) Envir.;“Green” Policy Energy Policy Economic Policy Population Policy Climate/Carbon Policy = + + + “Climate policy” is the combined outcome of policies for Population, Economy, Energy and Environment

7. Analysis Framework III: Sensory-Motor Loop Assessment Compare to Goals, Plan Reductions Track Progress Controls (Motor-Actions) Set Goals Assessment turns information into actionable knowledge for decisions Monitoring collects multi- sensory Earth Observations Human activities exert pressures, e.g burning fossil fuels, that alter the state of environment. The impaired environmental state, elicits responses, such as regulations in a feedback loop All living organisms use this type of sensory-motor feedback to maintain their existence. Monitoring, Assessment and Controls are the necessary steps for sustainable development. Monitoring (Sensing)

8. International Collaboration Opportunity: Global Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) Pooling of Earth Observations nine Societal Benefit Areas Any Dataset Serves Many Communities Any Problem Requires Many Datasets New International Program - China is a Co-Chair of GEOSS EE

9. Summary Frameworks for Energy-Environment Integration: –Biogeochemical Cycling Loop (Materials Balance) –Causality Loop (Socio-economic, Physical, Heatlh/Welfare Sciences) –Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science) Opportunities for Analysis and Collaboration: Combined assessment Population, Economy, Energy and Climate policies Collaboration in Earth System monitoring and Assessment