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1 Elections in the U.S.: The Recent Disconnect between Political Elites & the Mass Public Roger C. Lowery, Ph.D. Professor and Former Department Chair.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Elections in the U.S.: The Recent Disconnect between Political Elites & the Mass Public Roger C. Lowery, Ph.D. Professor and Former Department Chair."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Elections in the U.S.: The Recent Disconnect between Political Elites & the Mass Public Roger C. Lowery, Ph.D. Professor and Former Department Chair Department of Public & International Affairs University of North Carolina Wilmington lowery@uncw.edu www.uncw.edu/people/lowery

2 The political system I NPUTS O UTPUTS F EEDBACK LOOP 2 G OVERNMENT Executive Legislature Judiciary Mass public Movements Interest groups Parties Media Adm. regulations Leg. statutes Court decisions

3 Madison’s assumptions Human nature – Often flawed by self-interest, haste, passion, and short- sightedness – True of even the “best and the brightest” in both the mass public and the educated elites Best approximation of the common good – Bargaining and compromise between competing interests – Rarely does one side have a monopoly on wisdom and virtue 3

4 4 1) Political Ideology G OVT. G UARANTEED O RDER Civil Liberties Issues Political Ideologies

5 The recent disconnect Political polarization in elites: – Congress – Issue publics Political moderation in the mass public Political cynicism in the public 5

6 Sources of elite polarization 1. Ideological divisions – Conservative v. liberal bases – But: both parties include libertarian & populist wings 2. Changes in election rules – Liberal reform: “power to the people” – Conservative reform: “freedom of political speech” 3. Wealth gap between Congress & public 6

7 1) Ideological divisions in Congress 7

8 2) Recent changes in U.S. elections & campaigns 1. Public-opinion polling 2. Primary elections 3. GIS redistricting 4. Communications-media narrow-casting – Cable TV – Internet blogs/social media 8

9 7 Party Systems In U.S. History (p. 126) ___________________________________ 1.1788 Founding 2.1824 Nation Building 3.1860 Civil War & Reconstruction 4.1896 Industrial Revolution 5.1932 New Deal 6.1968 De-alignment 7.2004 ?? 9

10 Presidential voting in four political-party eras in the U.S. 10 18761876 18881888 20002000

11 How polarized was the 2008 presidential vote? 11 Electoral-vote winner by statePopular-vote division by county http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/

12 Decline in the public’s view of government responsiveness 12

13 Decline in the public’s political efficacy 13

14 Decline in the public’s trust in government 14

15 3) The wealth gap between the public & political elites 15 Sources: Center for Responsive Politics; US Census; Edward Wolff, Bard College. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/oss/oss2/2007/scf2007home.html http://www.opensecrets.org/pfds/overview.php?type=W&year=2009&filter=C http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2010/11/congressional-members-personal-weal.html

16 10 richest members of Congress 16 MEMBERMAX. EST. NET WORTH Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.)$451.1 million Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.)$435.4 million Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.)$366.2 million Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.)$294.9 million Rep. Jared Polis (D-Colo.)$285.1 million Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.)$283.1 million Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wisc.)$231.2 million Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas)$201.5 million Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.)$136.2 million Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.)$108.1 million COMBINED NET WORTH:$2.8 BILLION http://www.opensecrets.org/pfds/index.php http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/111/senate/2/276?ref=politics http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/111/house/2/647 (all 10 voted to extend Bush’s tax cuts for the rich)

17 Key recent economic changes (2007 – 2009) 17 http://osc.state.ny.us/osdc/rpt10-2011.pdf http://www.bls.gov/cps/prev_yrs.htm http://www.federalreserve.gov/RELEASES/z1/Current/annuals/a1995-2004.pdf http://www.federalreserve.gov/RELEASES/z1/Current/annuals/a2005-2009.pdf

18 Change in U.S. income distribution (1979-2007) 18 http://www.cbo.gov/publications/collections/tax/2010/all_tables.pdf

19 19 Upward redistribution of income (1979 – 2005)

20 Income inequality in the U.S. (2008) 20 http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_589.pdf

21 21 Actual v. perceived distribution of wealth in the U.S. http://www.people.hbs.edu/mnorton/norton%20ariely%20in%20press.pdf

22 How rich are the super rich? (2007 data) 22 Note: The 2007 data (the most current) doesn't reflect the impact of the housing market crash. In 2007, the bottom 60% of Americans had 65% of their net worth tied up in their homes. The top 1%, in contrast, had just 10%. The housing crisis has no doubt further swelled the share of total net worth held by the superrich. http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_589.pdf

23 Change in U.S. tax rates at the top (1913 – 2010) 23 http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/151.html

24 Change in share of U.S. tax burden (1950 – 2007) 24 http://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=3719

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