1. What gains can we expect from Genetics?
John A Butcher
Radiata Pine Breeding Company

2. What are the past contributions of Genetics?
Breed Seedlot
Volume Gain (%)
Acceptability (%)
GF Rating
Unimproved 45 1
Climbing Select
5-10 50 7
850 orchard
13-18 65 14
268 orchard
15-20 70 16
Top
19-23 19
CP 268
27-32 80 23

3. Increased genetic gain in predictive models
On average, an increase in GFPlus growth rating of 1 unit corresponds to a 1% increase in stem volume growth
On average, an increase in GFPlus density rating of 1 unit corresponds to an increase of 1.85 kg/m3 in wood density

4. Long term Gain Trials

5. Forest Industry Drivers for Tree Breeding
Greater productivity
Less variability across and between stems
Enhanced wood properties
Improved disease resistance
Increased profitability

6. How can Tree Breeding and Genetics respond?
High Impact Technology Developments
Genomic Selection
Genotype to Site Matching
Genomic Selection

7. Genomic Selection
A step-change in animal and plant breeding Increasingly used in animal breeding:- chickens, sheep, dairy cattle Increasingly used in plant breeding:- horticulture, crops, pasture Now being introduced to forest trees:- eucalypts, poplar, spruce, pines Genomic Selection is not a speculative technology

8. The Genomic Selection Programme
MBIE Partnership Programme with RPBC $5 million for 5 years Scion our major science provider Dr John Hay Project Manager Oversight by RPBC Advisory Board of international experts Well linked nationally and internationally (Australia, USA, Canada, UK, France, Scandinavia, Chile)

9. Genomic Selection
Uses genomic information to estimate breeding values (GeBVs) rather than just phenotypic information (BVs)
Eliminates the need for progeny testing and thus reduces the breeding and deployment cycle
Halves the breeding and development cycle
Doubles genetic gain per unit time
More rapid turnover of generations

10. Some additional benefits of genomic selection
Better ability to identify genotypes with traits of interest Ability to assess all traits in year 1 Ability to look at multiple traits simultaneously and understand interactions in multiple trait selection Overcomes issues with costly or “difficult to measure” phenotypic traits Allows screening for resistance to exotic pests and diseases by simple screening of DNA extracts from susceptible and resistant genotypes Provides a greater opportunity to respond to individual grower needs

11. How does Genomic Selection Work?
Genes for Trait 1
SNP Markers
Genes for Trait 2
Saturate the Genome with Markers
Make a SNP Panel

12. How the SNP Panel is trained
Training Set
800 clones with phenotype and genotype
1000 clones with phenotype and genotype
Prediction model
200 clones with genotype alone
Predict phenotypes based on genotypes alone
Training Population
Validation Set
Initial radiata training population of ca clones
Target training population of clones

13. How does the SNP Panel Work?
SNP Markers
Genes for Trait 1
DNA from genotype of unknown phenotype
Genes for Trait 2
Compare marker pattern (Genotype) and trait pattern (Phenotype)
Use patterns to predict phenotype
Produce Genomic Breeding Values

14. Current R&D Target Future possibility 0 5 10 15 20 30
New crosses Breeding Test Progeny Test Bulk Seed
Current Situation Backward Selection
New crosses Breeding Test Bulk Seed
Impact of forward selection
New crosses GS Regional clonal tests Cuttings
Current R&D Target
GS plus regional clonal tests
New GS cuttings crosses
Future possibility
GS alone

15. Impact on Breeding and Deployment Timelines
Slash Pine in Florida
Matias Kirst
Top grafting
SE & rooted cuttings
Genomics

16. What it means to optimising returns from tree breeding
$168 million additional gross revenue (mill door/wharf gate)
Each year for 20 years from 2069
PV of Benefit = $ 19 million
Base Case: Genetic Gains achieved
10% volume increase kg/m³ density increase
33 years to first deployment of new germplasm
26 years to first harvest of new germplasm

17. What it means to optimising returns from tree breeding
$168 million additional gross revenue (mill door/wharf gate)
Each year for 20 years from 2051
PV of Benefit = $ 76 million
Genetic Gains achieved
Breeding/Deployment cycle reduced by 17 years
15 years to first deployment
of new germplasm
26 years to first harvest of new germplasm

18. Greater gain with Genomic election50
GENOMIC SELECTION with forward selection
First harvest from Genomic Selections 40
Percentage Gain 30
Implementation of Genomic Selection
Additional gain from genomic selection 20 10
CONVENTIONAL BREEDING with backward selection
Gain from existing genetic improvement
2010
2030
2050
2070
Time

19. Expectations from the Genomic Selection Programme
Improved Dothistroma resistance available from 2018 Top performing selections of 1997/99 elites available from 2018 Top performing selections of 2013/14 elites available from 2022 New selections form 2018/19 elites available 2028 Initial focus (2018 deliverables) on Volume and Dothistroma Anticipated gains at harvest in ca % gain already in developing commercial estate 15% additional from genomics then an expectation of an additional 10% gain every 7-8 Years

20. The Future
Genomic Selection will become mainstream in tree breeding Timelines of the breeding and deployment cycle will be further reduced Cost reductions in genotyping will make genomic selection a tool that could be used for individual companies to drive customised breeding initiatives Genomic Selection will be a key component in the implementation of genotype to site matching and the exploitation of GxE