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April 14, 2016 Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D., Director Mark C. White, Ph.D., Deputy Director Center for Regional.

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Presentation on theme: "April 14, 2016 Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D., Director Mark C. White, Ph.D., Deputy Director Center for Regional."— Presentation transcript:

1 April 14, 2016 Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D., Director Mark C. White, Ph.D., Deputy Director Center for Regional Analysis School of Policy, Government & International Affairs George Mason University Presentation to Southeast Fairfax Development Corporation Mount Vernon – Lee Chamber of Commerce

2 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2016 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics April 2016 Forecast 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 %

3 (000s) US Payroll Job Change Month-to-Month Feb = +215 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

4 100 Consumer Confidence Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Expectations Current Situation

5 U.S. Leading Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

6 ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Source: Institute for Supply Management

7 The Washington Economy

8 Annual Job Change Washington MSA, 2002-2016 (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

9 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Feb 2015 – Feb 2016 Washington +2.2% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

10 Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $364.0K Feb 2016 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (000s)

11 Washington MSA Building Permits 2003 – 2016, 3-Month Moving Avg Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

12 Federal Government Washington MSA (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Feb-16 Total: 365.3 Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

13 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Feb-16 Total: 724.4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

14 Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA 1980-2015 $ Billions | | | < 01–10 = $563.5B | TOTAL = $1,235.9 Billion 79.9 76.3 69.1 71.1 Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov 71.2

15 Job Change by Sector Feb 2015 – Feb 2016 Washington MSA (000s) Total = 68,800 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

16 Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, 2002-2016 (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

17 Job Change by Sector Feb 2015 – Feb 2016 Northern Virginia (000s)Total 34,700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

18 Job Change by Sector Jan 2016 – Feb 2016 Northern Virginia (000s) Total 3,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

19 6.9 – DC 4.9 – U.S. 4.2 – SMD 4.1 – MSA 3.54 - NVA Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, 2009-2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

20 Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

21 % Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January 2016 U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 2007 – 2015 – 2020 (Annual % Change) Washington U.S. %

22 % Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January 2016 Economic Outlook (GRP), 2007-2020 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) DC SM MSA NV %

23 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s) 20132014201520162017201820192020 D.C. 13.06.514.714.19.710.68.98.2 Sub. MD 6.111.117.420.217.714.112.011.0 No. VA 8.91.327.325.523.615.913.712.6 REGION 28.018.959.459.851.040.634.631.8 Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 2016) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV.

24 More Data Available at: cra.gmu.edu

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