1. Mukwonago Area School District Historical Enrollment and Future Enrollment Projections

4. Waukesha County Birth Rates This graph includes Waukesha County birth rates since 2003 Birth rates are used to project incoming kindergarten class sizes There has been a downward trend through the county regarding birth rates On average, MASD sees 7% of all Waukesha County newborns attend their schools five years later Data Source: Wisconsin Department of Health Services, Division of Public Health

5. Notes on Recent Enrollment Trends Prior to 2015-16, MASD enrollment decreased for seven years In 2015-16, MASD enrollment stabilized Further, with the introduction of 4k, overall enrollment has increased

6. Projecting Enrollment Projecting future enrollment is commonly done using a “survival ratio” technique The projections are actuarial in nature Some projections show an increase occurring in 2016-17, while others show minimal growth or slight decreases (see next slide) NOTE: from 2014-15 to 2015-16, virtually every grade level increased it’s enrollment from the previous year Example: First graders in 2014-15 = 272 Second graders in 2015-16 = 291

8. Three Year Projected Resident Enrollment If MASD sustained its one-year growth rate from ‘14-15 to ‘15-16, we would experience dramatic growth (see grey line) My “best-guess” would be reflected by the blue line A conservative, budget building estimate is reflected by the green line A worst-case scenario is represented by the yellow line Projecting enrollment is never an exact science