2. Thoughts for a morning Source: Dr. Seuss The places we’ve been Where we are now Oh, the Places we (might) go!

4. Growth in Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

5. Growth in Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

6. State and National Outlook National Outlook – Moderate growth – Slow reduction in remaining labor slack – FOMC forecasting 2.4% growth – Interest rates rising but slowly State – Positive but only moderate growth – ~2.5%

7. Federal Reserve Primer Federal Reserve’s FOMC set’s monetary policy – Dual Mandate: Stable Prices Maximum Employment – Increased emphasis on financial stability

8. Output Gap Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Congressional Budget Office

9. Unemployment Source: NC Labor and Economic Analysis Division

10. Inflation Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

11. Fed Funds Rate Source: Federal Open Market Committee Materials

12. Recession Probability

13. NC Leading Indicators Source: Michael Walden NCSU

14. NC sector employment growth Source: BLS

16. Oil’s effect uncertain Source: US EIA

17. External Sector Slowing Source: International Monetary Fund

18. Dollar appreciating Source: Fed Board

19. NC vs. US Employment by Sector Source: BLS, Richmond Fed Bank

21. Imports and Unemployment Source: BEA and BLS

22. Technology as a disrupter Oxford Study – 47% of US employment at risk of automation Capital and skill complementary – Accelerating since 1980s driving inequality Substituting capital for labor – Telephone operators – Bank tellers and ATMs

23. Capital vs. Labor Source: Frey and Osborne

24. Computerization bottlenecks Source:

25. Computerization bottlenecks Source: thisismoney.co.uk, Frey and Osborne 2013

27. Manufacturing is dying... Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

28. Only employment in manufacturing is dying Source: US BEA

29. US manufacturing productivity Source: US BLS

30. NC Manufacturing Employment and Output Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

31. NC then and now Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

33. Regional Outlook in Long Run Faster economic growth than nation’s 2% – Increasing population Income growth – Expected to be faster than national average Median Income US: $53,657 Median Income NC: $46,784 – Substantial uncertainty Education levels Policy uncertainty

34. Slide Title Source: NC OSBM

35. NC vs. US Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

36. Traded Sector Local Sector Traded Sector

37. Source: US Cluster Mapping Project

39. Thoughts for the future Source: “Employed in Many Things”

40. US Incorporated self employed Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

41. Thoughts for the future Source: “Employed in Many Things” – Basic accounting and management skills – Personal finance – General skills i.e. programming ideas Technology – 3D printing

42. Technology Source: playingintheworldgame.files.wordpress.com zdnet.com

43. Technology Source: cnn.com, techinsider.io, 3dprint.com

44. Reimagining Source: bikerumor.com

45. Birthdays Source: Dr. Tim Elmore, thehrintrovert.com, Pillsbury, momspartyrental.com

46. Thoughts for the future “Employed in Many Things” – Basic accounting and management skills – Personal finance – General skills i.e. programming ideas Technology – 3D printing – Currently lacks skills to effectively use Experiences not products – Customer relationship skills