1. Matthew Dempsey, Editor & Chief Executive, Irish Farmers Journal Lismullen Conference 14 th January 2013

3. Economic growth effects Income level per capita Effect of economic growth on food consumption <$2 per dayEat more (increase calorie intake) $2-$10 per day Switch from grains to meat and dairy >$10 per dayIncrease spending on services/quality (convenience, brands, fresh/cooled) Rabobank International 3

4. World grain supply/demand

8. Brazil - Increase in corn yield

9. Brazil - Increase in soybean yield

10. Brazil - Food basket real prices (Jan 1975 – Apr 2010)

15. Key Messages

16. Growth regions lack land Rabobank International Low land availability, no expansion opportunities Significant expansion opportunities 16 Source: FAO

17. Milk Prices

18. Beef Prices (€/kg dw excluding VAT)

19. Long term commodity price trends Source: World Bank. Note: 2012 figures are forecasts as of September 2012. 19

20. Projected Prices in 2012 OECD Milk22.11 cent / ltr Soft Wheat€106 / tonne Barley€100 / tonne Beef R3€2.50 / kg d.wt Sheep€3.84 / kg d.wt Pigs€1.29 / kg d.wt

22. ? Land Holding

23. ? World Phosphate Rock Reserves

24. ? Phosphate Rock Production

26. ? Top Fertilizer Companies

27. Wheat / Oil Exchange Rate 1950 - 2010 Source: IMF Statistics Online Database. * Author’s estimates based on April wheat & oil futures price for 2004 YearBushel of Wheat US$Barrel of Oil US$Bushels per Barrel (Ratio) 19501.891.711 19601.581.851 19701.491.791 19754.0611.453 19804.7035.718 19853.7027.377 19903.6922.996 19954.8217.204 19993.0517.986 20013.4524.337 20033.9828.897 2004 *4.2036.009 20104.6080.0017 20128.80110.0012

28. Lismullen Conference 14 th January 2013 Matthew Dempsey, Editor & Chief Executive, Irish Farmers Journal