1. Vehicle & Powertrain Forecast 2023: Global trends / regional differences

2. GLOBAL LIGHT-VEHICLE PRODUCTION FORECAST 2016 -2023
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
ASIA-PACIFIC
48,968,000
51,325,000
53,330,000
54,890,000
56,100,000
56,885,000
57,570,000
58,200,000
EUROPE
21,476,700
21,700,000
22,095,000
22,310,000
22,720,000
22,965,000
23,110,000
23,260,000
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA
2,372,000
2,500,000
2,570,000
2,665,000
2,740,000
2,770,000
2,800,000
2,810,000
NORTH AMERICA
17,900,000
18,150,000
18,420,000
18,512,000
18,661,000
18,696,000
18,722,500
18,747,500
SOUTH AMERICA
2,900,000
3,000,000
3,200,000
3,600,000
3,800,000
4,100,000
4,250,000
Total
93,486,700
96,575,000
99,415,000
101,577,000
103,821,000
105,116,000
106,302,500
107,267,500

3. GLOBAL LIGHT-VEHICLE PRODUCTION
2016 – Avg. compound annual chg 2.2%
2019 Annual LV production hits 100 million
Annual production up 19% over 2015
Industry will add 17 million units to annual production by end of period
Equivalent to adding another North America

4. GLOBAL LIGHT-VEHICLE PRODUCTION BY REGION
Asia Pacific +25.4% Accounts for 69% of gain (+11.8 Million Units)
Europe +11%, powered by 26% increase in Eastern Europe
North America +7.3%, 1% avg. annual growth
South America +37% (Still 7% below 2013 peak)

5. BRIC LIGHT-VEHICLE PRODUCTION
BRIC annual output +38% +12 million-units
Brazil (+46%) struggling to return to 2013 peak
Russia (+70%) ekes past 2012 volume by end of period
India (+51%) nears 6 million units/yr by end of period.

6. “SLOWING” CHINA POWERS GLOBAL LV GROWTH
China powers BRIC, Asia-Pacific and Global Growth
Up 34% over period
3.7% average annual growth
Accounts for more than half of global growth
32 million units/yr by 2023
Adds 8.2 million units to annual output by end of period (37% more than India’s total 2023 output)

7. GLOBAL LIGHT-VEHICLE PRODUCTION BY TYPE
Car output reaches 50 million
2019 – Light trucks follow suit
2023
Car production +17%
Light trucks %
Cars retain majority of output losing just one point over forecast period
Smallest % gap in

8. GLOBAL LIGHT-VEHICLE PRODUCTION BY TYPE
Globally share of cars and light trucks is stable over entire period

9. 2023 REGIONAL LIGHT-VEHICLE PRODUCTION BY TYPE
Marked regional differences in vehicle-type splits
Asia-Pacific – Light trucks surpass 50% by end of forecast period
North America - The outlier, with car production making up less than 40% of LV output by 2023
Rest of world – cars account for decided majority of output throughout period

10. Car & Light Truck (by segment) % Production 2011 - 2023
Global shift to trucks largely finished
CUVs account for entirety of shift
Traditional light trucks taper slightly over period

11. Car/CUVs vs Other Light Truck % Production 2011 - 2023
PASSENGER VEHICLES
Cars and CUVs maintain 75%-79% of all LV production throughout forecast period

12. 2023 Regional Car/CUVs vs Other LT Production
Less deviation from region to region
North America becomes “more normal” but still stands alone

13. GLOBAL LIGHT-VEHICLE PLATFORMS PER VEHICLE TYPE
Cars will be built on 198 different platforms in 2023, down from 205
Light trucks will be built on 296 platforms in 2023, up from 270
Light trucks make up 2% less volume in 2023, built on 98 more platforms than cars

14. GLOBAL LIGHT-VEHICLE PLATFORM PRODUCTION
Car-only platforms fall precipitously
Light truck-only platforms steady
# of Platforms used for both cars & light trucks increases ~20%.

15. GLOBAL LIGHT-VEHICLE PRODUCTION/PLATFORM By Vehicle Type
Car-only platforms least leveraged - average <100K units/platform
Light truck-only platforms slightly better – 129K units/platform through forecast period
Platforms used for both cars & light trucks average 650K units/platform by 2023

16. GLOBAL LIGHT-VEHICLE PRODUCTION by Platform Vehicle Type
Volume associated with car-only platforms dives from 11% to 6%
Light-truck only platform share drops from 24% to 21%
Platforms that support both cars & light trucks account for 72% of LVs produced by end of period

17. GLOBAL LIGHT-VEHICLE Production per Platform
Average LVs/platform rises 28% to 420K
Number of platforms declines 10% from 2016 peak

18. GLOBAL POWERTRAIN LV VOLUMES
By Powertrain Type
Powertrain Type
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Electric Only
260,200
329,700
390,200
469,700
512,900
526,200
532,200
534,000
545,700
EVICE
16,600
24,500
28,800
30,900
31,100
32,100
34,400
34,300
36,800
HYBRID
2,397,200
2,932,700
3,155,200
3,304,300
3,518,800
3,655,800
3,670,900
3,779,000
3,858,500
IC Only
87,474,700
90,199,800
93,000,800
95,610,200
97,514,300
99,606,900
100,878,600
101,955,100
102,826,600
Total
90,148,700
93,486,700
96,575,000
99,415,000
101,577,000
103,821,000
105,116,000
106,302,500
107,267,500
ICEs continue to dominate
Make up 96% of LV Powertrains in 2023, compared with 97% in 2015
Annual hybrid output grows 1.5 million units over course of forecast
EVs more than double, but make up less than 1% of global output

19. GLOBAL HYBRID/EV LVs Production by Region
Asia-Pacific to account for 62% of Hybrid/EV production (vs. 54% of total LV output)
North America to produce 25% (vs 17% of total LVs)

20. GLOBAL INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES By Average Displacement by Region
Global ICE average displacement drops 4.2% in the forecast period to 1.95L
North America displacement drops 7.6%, but remains 50% above global average in 2023 at 2.9L
Europe average displacement flat at 1.8L
Asia-Pacific drops 2% to 1.7L

21. GLOBAL INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES By Cylinder Count
Global ICE average cylinders falls from 4.3 to 4.2
North America stays nearly a cylinder above global average, finishing at 5.1 cylinders/ICE

22. GLOBAL TRANSMISSIONS BY TYPE
Automatics decline to 26% from 34% over forecast period
CVTs move beyond hybrids – up to 15% of global LVs from 11%
Manual share falls to 40% from 44%
DCTs surge from 10.8% to 17.5%

23. GLOBAL TRANSMISSIONS By Type by Region

24. GLOBAL TRANSMISSIONS BY FORWARD GEARS
Average Forward Gears (Non CVT) 6.2 in 2023 vs 5.7 in 2015
5 and 6 gear transmissions remain dominant, accounting for two-thirds of all transmissions in 2023

25. GLOBAL TRANSMISSIONS By Forward Gears by Region

26. Summary Slowing China still growing Platform efficiency
building more on less
cars & light trucks on same platforms
Engines downsizing - a little
Global industry but
big regional differences
North America an outlier on everything - still

27. Global production by country, plant, program, nameplate
VEHICLE FORECAST
Global production by country, plant, program, nameplate
Eight-year planning window, all updated monthly
Medium and heavy duty truck volumes included for N.A.
Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

28. FORECASTING TOOLS
Powerful database and reporting tools to customize your output
Presentation-ready reports and filter options
Weekly, monthly and quarterly deliverables for additional detail and perspective
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29. POWERTRAIN FORECAST
Realistic picture of powertrain volumes, updated monthly
Engine, transmission, hybrid & electric
Eight-year forecast, updated monthly
Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

30. All current and future product plans with SOP and EOP, updated monthly
PRODUCT CYCLES
All current and future product plans with SOP and EOP, updated monthly
By Manufacturer, Brand, Platform, Program, Nameplate, Plant, Average Lifetime Volume
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31. GREEN POWERTRAIN STRATEGIES REPORT
Green vehicle and powertrain technology product plans by OEM and segment
US Light Vehicle Sales forecast by segment, powertrain technology and OEM
Analysis of underlying assumptions, relative strengths, and the potential risks of each OEM’s green strategy
Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

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Lisa Williamson
Nakia Elsaidi