1. -:Fat Chance:- Risk and Reward Paul Taylor 2010

2. What is chance?

3. Why do we need chance? We balance risk / rewards in everyday life – What is the danger of a building collapsing? – A train being delayed? – Showing up to class vs Failing the Exam?

4. Roll of the Die... What are the odds? http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/dicep rob.htm http://www.extrabit.com/dice/d6-06.jpg

5. What are the odds? http://www.extrabit.com/dice/d12-12.jpg

6. What do you do if you don’t have a 12 face die? Roll 2x 6 face die? Roll 1x 6 face die and double the answer? Roll 1x 6 face die and flip 1x coin? http://www.serenapowers.com/img/dice.jpg

7. Rolling 2x 6 face die http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/dicep oss.gif

8. http://www.upscale.utoronto.ca/cgi- bin/ErrorAnalysis/HistogramExample.cgi

9. 1x Die = 1-6 1x Coin = H / T = +0 / +6

10. C# / XNA Randomness Random randNumber; randNumber = new Random(); int diceRoll = randNumber.Next(1, 7); int dice12face = randNumber.Next(1, 7) + randNumber.Next(1, 7);

11. Complex Chance Suppose we have 184 different enemies for the player to face We want to be able to estimate the difficulty of the game without knowing the exact enemies chosen

12. A hierarchy of chance We have 184 different enemies – All must be easy, difficult, or normal – (We categorise the enemies) Now we can set probabilities for each category

13. Now what is the probability: That your game is fun? That your game is too difficult? That your game is too easy? Now to add some balance....

14. Adding some Balance We can’t just throw risk around without considering how it affects the balance of the game http://blog.wineenthusiast.com/wp- content/uploads/2008/12/balance.jpg

15. Balancing Asymmetrical games Commonly achieved via Resource and Power balance – Vampire Guinea Pig Apocalypse – Three main character classes: Normal Guinea Pig Vampire Guinea Pig Exorcist Guinea Pig

16. Powers of Pigs ExorcistVampire GPGuinea Pig DefenceHighMediumLow AttackLowHighMedium AvoidMediumLowHigh

17. Checking the balance of power ExorcistVampire GPGuinea Pig DefenceHighMediumLow AttackLowHighMedium AvoidMediumLowHigh ExorcistVampire GPGuinea Pig DefenceHigh (3)Medium (2)Low (1) AttackLow (1)High (3)Medium (2) AvoidMedium (2)Low (1)High (3) Total Power666

18. Rock Paper Scissors This is the circle of life version of fairness Used extensively by games such as Pokémon There is no most powerful piece For every power there is a weakness

19. Paper Scissors Rock has no probability Player:PaperScissorsRock Vs PaperDrawWinLose Vs ScissorsLoseDrawWin Vs RockWinLoseDraw

20. When is probability a good choice? For small frequent challenges – Item Dropping – ?? When the player can estimate the risk

21. When is probability a bad choice? When the risk is high When the player has no control over the amount of risk Irreversible actions

22. References Fundamentals of Game Design